500 Warren St #9 · Monmouth, OR 97361

$100,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 950 sqft · Manufactured · 71 Days on market

Built 1999 $105/sqft · 86% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss this 1999 manufactured home that has low space rent of $715 which includes water, sewer & garbage. It features vaulted ceilings & an open floor plan w/laminate flooring, 2 generous sized bedrooms & 2 full baths. It's situated in the charming town of Monmouth w/Western Oregon University & State Police Acadamy are close by. Work from home or it's easy access to Salem, Dallas or Independence. Large storage shed for toys, outdoor furniture etc. Buyer needs Park approval.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Covered carport
• Storage shed

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• UPDATED LAMINATE FLOORING
• COVERED CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED
• PARTIALLY FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $465 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 2.6% in Monmouth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#108 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, housing B+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety D+, amenities D.
• Central SD 13J (town): math 26% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #149 of 183 in OR (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 177 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 15 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $94,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.92%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $53,818
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: 85.81%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $13,420
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $49,894
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97361

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,463 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $465

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
479 S Monmouth Ave Unit 479-18 Monmouth, OR	2.0	1.5	996	$1,545	$1.55	23d	1	0.03mi
302 S Monmouth Ave Unit 302-A Monmouth, OR	1.0	1.0	600	$1,095	$1.82	43d	1	0.19mi
219 S Monmouth Ave Unit 212 Monmouth, OR	2.0	1.0	980	$1,499	$1.53	43d	1	0.23mi
130 Main St W Monmouth, OR	2.0	1.0	750	$1,499	$2.00	13d	1	0.32mi
242 Jackson St E Unit B Monmouth, OR	2.0	1.0	877	$1,650	$1.88	13d	1	0.42mi
163 Catron St N Unit 163-02 Monmouth, OR	2.0	1.0	760	$1,395	$1.84	43d	1	0.46mi
475 Jackson St W Monmouth, OR	1.0	1.0	700	$1,050	$1.50	43d	1	0.46mi
739 Jackson St W Unit 3 Monmouth, OR	2.0	2.0	850	$1,450	$1.71	43d	1	0.53mi
1021 Main St E Unit 1021-1 Monmouth, OR	2.0	1.0	800	$1,450	$1.81	43d	1	0.66mi
501 Catron St N Monmouth, OR	2.0	2.0	1090	$1,450	$1.33	13d	1	0.69mi
537 Catron St N Unit 537-05 Monmouth, OR	2.0	2.0	1090	$1,400	$1.28	43d	1	0.72mi
523 Catron St N Unit 523-11 Monmouth, OR	2.0	2.0	1090	$1,400	$1.28	43d	1	0.74mi
523 Catron St N Unit 523-05 Monmouth, OR	2.0	2.0	1090	$1,450	$1.33	23d	1	0.74mi
314 Monmouth Independence Hwy Monmouth, OR	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,795	$1.63	43d	1	0.89mi
336 Whitesell St W Unit 336-7 Monmouth, OR	2.0	2.0	800	$1,400	$1.75	23d	1	0.96mi
304 Hoxton Ave Unit 2bd/2ba_771sq Monmouth, OR	2.0	2.0	771	$1,500	$1.95	13d	1	0.97mi
308 Hoxton Ave Unit 2bd/2ba_880sq Monmouth, OR	2.0	2.0	880	$1,720	$1.95	13d	1	0.97mi
300 Hoxton Ave Monmouth, OR	2.0–3.0	2.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	13d	9	0.98mi
1630 Monmouth St Independence, OR	2.0	1.5	900	$1,375	$1.53	13d	1	1.26mi
1630 Monmouth St Unit 1630-20 Independence, OR	2.0	1.5	900	$1,375	$1.53	23d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 49 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $100,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $100,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $100,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $100,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $104,900 Active 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    Don't miss this 1999 manufactured home that has low space rent of $715 which includes water, sewer & garbage. It features vaulted ceilings & an open floor plan w/laminate flooring, 2 generous sized bedrooms & 2 full baths. It's situated in the charming town of Monmouth w/Western Oregon University & State Police Acadamy are close by. Work from home or it's easy access to Salem, Dallas or Independence. Large storage shed for toys, outdoor furniture etc. Buyer needs Park approval.

17. 2026-04-08
    listed $104,900 Active 645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (645 chars)

    You don't want to miss this charming 1999 manufactured home that is move-in ready & low space rent of $715 for next owner, which covers water, sewer & garbage! It features vaulted ceilings & an open floor plan w/updated laminate flooring. 2 generous sized bedrooms & 2 baths could suit your needs. All this is situated in the charming town of Monmouth w/Western University & the Police Academy close by. Work from home or have easy access to Salem, Dallas or Independence. Great covered carport with a storage shed & a partially fenced yard. Buyer's must be approved by Park. Please allow 2 hours notice for all showings.

18. 2025-04-10
    soldstatus $80,000 Sold
19. 2025-03-20
    status Pending
20. 2025-03-03
    status Active
21. 2025-02-19
    status Pending
22. 2025-01-17
    listed $85,000 Active
23. 2021-12-16
    soldstatus $50,000 Sold
24. 2021-12-05
    historical Active under Contract
25. 2021-11-23
    status Active
26. 2021-11-06
    historical Active under Contract
27. 2021-10-26
    listed $50,000 Active
28. 2019-12-09
    soldstatus $40,000 Sold
29. 2019-12-03
    status Pending
30. 2019-10-22
    historical Active under Contract
31. 2019-10-15
    status Active
32. 2019-10-06
    historical Active under Contract
33. 2019-09-19
    listed $40,000 Active
34. 2019-06-15
    historical
35. 2019-05-07
    status Active
36. 2019-05-01
    historical
37. 2019-04-01
    status Active
38. 2019-04-01
    historical
39. 2019-03-03
    price $38,000
40. 2019-03-02
    status Active
41. 2019-02-01
    historical
42. 2019-01-08
    price $42,000
43. 2019-01-07
    status Active
44. 2019-01-01
    historical
45. 2018-11-05
    status Active
46. 2018-11-01
    historical
47. 2018-09-11
    status Active
48. 2018-08-27
    historical Active under Contract
49. 2018-08-13
    listed $45,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,557
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,405
• − Management: −$1,405
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $4,238
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,017
• After-tax cash flow: $4,560/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central SD 13J
• NCES district ID: 4102840
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $42,374
• Composite: 31.04/100
• National rank: #11310
• State rank: #149 of 183 in OR

Livability — Monmouth

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #108
• US rank: #5992

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment D Housing B+ Health & safety D+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Monmouth, OR
• County: Polk County · 84,240 people
• City population: 14,488
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 14,488
• Household income: $69,505
• Rent vs Own: 43.4% rent · 56.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 412.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,594 people
• By 2030: 93,209 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 101,942 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 110,395 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 131,091 · +48.0%
• By 2100: 141,746 · +60.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 12% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 50.4% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -0.5pp · 2024: -3.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.8 2020: R+1.7 2016: R+7.0 2012: R+4.8 2008: R+0.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -162.97%
• Current HPI: 309.076
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+133.1% since first listed

34 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $104,900 WVMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $104,900 RMLS
• 2025-04-10 Sold (MLS) $80,000 WVMLS
• 2025-03-20 Pending — WVMLS
• 2025-03-03 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2025-02-19 Pending — WVMLS
• 2025-01-17 Listed $85,000 WVMLS
• 2021-12-16 Sold (MLS) $50,000 WVMLS
• 2021-12-05 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2021-11-23 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2021-11-06 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2021-10-26 Listed $50,000 WVMLS
• 2019-12-09 Sold (MLS) $40,000 WVMLS
• 2019-12-03 Pending — WVMLS
• 2019-10-22 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2019-10-15 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2019-10-06 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2019-09-19 Listed $40,000 WVMLS
• 2019-06-15 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2019-05-07 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2019-05-01 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2019-04-01 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2019-04-01 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2019-03-03 Price Changed $38,000 WVMLS
• 2019-03-02 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2019-02-01 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2019-01-08 Price Changed $42,000 WVMLS
• 2019-01-07 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2019-01-01 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2018-11-05 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2018-11-01 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2018-09-11 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2018-08-27 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2018-08-13 Listed $45,000 WVMLS