12476 Fire Run Rd · Avoca, AR 72732

$220,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

0.99 ac lot Est $237k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare Find! 3 bedroom, remodeled house on one acre! Enjoy privacy in the beautifully updated home. Updates include new water heater, roof (2018,) all new flooring, windows, interior doors, fixtures, woodwork, paint, deck, countertops and vanity. Don't miss out on this one!

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Split floor plan
• Great location

Tags

• CLEARED LEVEL GROUND
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• COVERED PORCH
• NEARLY ONE ACRE LOT
• GREAT LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee (details not provided); Nearby park/community park access

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity available; Propane available; Public water; Septic (septic tank) available
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Fiberglass/shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built age unknown
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Gravel driveway; Unpaved driveway; Partial wire fencing; Cleared, level city lot near a park; County/public road frontage with gravel surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Propane heating available; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Split bedroom floor plan; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $452 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $207k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#182 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rogers School District (urban): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #31 of 238 in AR (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $134k; list at $220k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.81%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $237,312
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15072 White Fawn Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,143 (-1%)	4mo	$235,000	$206	61
12238 Cavewood Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+8%)	2mo	$325,000	$260	60
15373 Mills Ter	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,238 (+8%)	3mo	$245,000	$198	56
15137 Mills Cv	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,284 (+12%)	23mo	$258,000	$201	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $113,974
• Equity at exit: $161,299

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.02×
• Total profit: $309,300
• Equity at exit: $314,761

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72732

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,497 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,300/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $452

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,925

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $220,000 Pending 66 DOM
2. 2026-04-16
   price $220,000
3. 2026-03-24
   listed $235,000 Active
4. 2019-11-22
   soldstatus $134,000
5. 2019-11-20
   soldstatus $134,000 272-char remark

   Show marketing remark (272 chars)

   Rare Find! 3 bedroom, remodeled house on one acre! Enjoy privacy in the beautifully updated home. Updates include new water heater, roof (2018,) all new flooring, windows, interior doors, fixtures, woodwork, paint, deck, countertops and vanity. Don't miss out on this one!

6. 2019-10-09
   listed $135,000 272-char remark

   Show marketing remark (272 chars)

   Rare Find! 3 bedroom, remodeled house on one acre! Enjoy privacy in the beautifully updated home. Updates include new water heater, roof (2018,) all new flooring, windows, interior doors, fixtures, woodwork, paint, deck, countertops and vanity. Don't miss out on this one!

7. 2018-10-01
   soldstatus $60,000
8. 2018-09-27
   soldstatus $60,000 331-char remark

   Show marketing remark (331 chars)

   Get out of town with a country style home on 0.99 acres - NEW Roof. Has back deck & front porch. Located near Avoca, Rogers School District. Sold As-Is, No Repairs, Cash or In-House Style loan only. Will not go FHA, RD, VA or Conventional. Earnest Money and pre-approval letter/verification of funds required with all offers.

9. 2018-08-17
   listed $54,900 331-char remark

   Show marketing remark (331 chars)

   Get out of town with a country style home on 0.99 acres - NEW Roof. Has back deck & front porch. Located near Avoca, Rogers School District. Sold As-Is, No Repairs, Cash or In-House Style loan only. Will not go FHA, RD, VA or Conventional. Earnest Money and pre-approval letter/verification of funds required with all offers.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,963
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,300
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,397
• − Management: −$2,397
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable income: $2,045
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$491
• After-tax cash flow: $4,935/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rogers School District
• NCES district ID: 0511970
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 38.81/100
• National rank: #4113
• State rank: #31 of 238 in AR

Livability — Avoca

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #182
• US rank: #14576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,493

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 318,683 people
• By 2030: 353,481 · +10.9%
• By 2040: 425,280 · +33.4%
• By 2050: 497,239 · +56.0%
• By 2075: 662,114 · +107.8%
• By 2100: 776,431 · +143.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Two or more races 27% Hispanic / Latino 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Danish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.2% · R 62.1% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -36.5pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+34.9 2012: R+40.4 2008: R+36.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.61%
• Current HPI: 368.3932
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+300.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $220,000 NWARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $235,000 NWARMLS
• 2019-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $134,000 Public Records
• 2019-11-20 Sold (MLS) $134,000 NWARMLS
• 2019-10-09 Listed $135,000 NWARMLS
• 2018-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2018-09-27 Sold (MLS) $60,000 NWARMLS
• 2018-08-17 Listed $54,900 NWARMLS

Property tax history

-7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $325 · -16.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.