5144 Pauline St · East Milton, FL 32583

$199,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,274 sqft · Manufactured public records · 90 Days on market

Built 2021 0.25 ac lot Est $183k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• ARV discount +3.7/15.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home where comfort meets functionality. As you step inside, you're greeted by an inviting open floor plan, seamlessly connecting the kitchen to the cozy family room. The kitchen boasts modern appliances, ample counter space, and a convenient island. Adjacent to the kitchen and dining area, the spacious family room offers a warm ambiance, ideal for gatherings with loved ones or relaxing evenings. Windows allow natural light to illuminate the space, creating a bright and cheerful atmosphere. The home sits on .25 acre and offers a fenced backyard.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 2021
• Listed 89 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located on a county-maintained road
• HOA & community: No homeowner association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with open parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Copper wiring
• Home design: Mobile/Manufactured or modular home; Single-story (one level); Resale property; Insulated walls
• Construction: Off-grade foundation; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Back-yard fencing; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Refrigerator included; Kitchen and dining are combined
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the first floor, roughly 12 x 12; Second bedroom on the first floor, roughly 12 x 9; Third bedroom on the first floor, roughly 12 x 9
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Storage; Ceiling fans; Some blinds
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry with washer/dryer hookups; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-98 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (8.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (26.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.6% in East Milton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#199 in FL, #3,139 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 806 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,974 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.10%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $183,456
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10077 Jeno Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-2%)	11mo	$180,000	$144	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-36,223
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-30,033
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32583

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 806
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,470 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,588/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $-98

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,593

Max offer price $181,736

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4819 Douglas Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	924	$1,100	$1.19	13d	1	1.12mi
4825 Douglas Dr Milton, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	13d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $199,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-05-08
    price $199,000
11. 2026-04-26
    price $204,000
12. 2026-04-13
    price $209,500
13. 2026-03-11
    listed $215,000 Active
14. 2024-05-03
    soldstatus $200,000
15. 2024-05-01
    status Pending 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home where comfort meets functionality. As you step inside, you're greeted by an inviting open floor plan, seamlessly connecting the kitchen to the cozy family room. The kitchen boasts modern appliances, ample counter space, and a convenient island. Adjacent to the kitchen and dining area, the spacious family room offers a warm ambiance, ideal for gatherings with loved ones or relaxing evenings. Windows allow natural light to illuminate the space, creating a bright and cheerful atmosphere. The home sits on .25 acre and offers a fenced backyard.

16. 2024-04-29
    soldstatus $200,000 Sold 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home where comfort meets functionality. As you step inside, you're greeted by an inviting open floor plan, seamlessly connecting the kitchen to the cozy family room. The kitchen boasts modern appliances, ample counter space, and a convenient island. Adjacent to the kitchen and dining area, the spacious family room offers a warm ambiance, ideal for gatherings with loved ones or relaxing evenings. Windows allow natural light to illuminate the space, creating a bright and cheerful atmosphere. The home sits on .25 acre and offers a fenced backyard.

17. 2024-04-02
    historical Contingent 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home where comfort meets functionality. As you step inside, you're greeted by an inviting open floor plan, seamlessly connecting the kitchen to the cozy family room. The kitchen boasts modern appliances, ample counter space, and a convenient island. Adjacent to the kitchen and dining area, the spacious family room offers a warm ambiance, ideal for gatherings with loved ones or relaxing evenings. Windows allow natural light to illuminate the space, creating a bright and cheerful atmosphere. The home sits on .25 acre and offers a fenced backyard.

18. 2024-03-15
    listed $200,000 Active 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home where comfort meets functionality. As you step inside, you're greeted by an inviting open floor plan, seamlessly connecting the kitchen to the cozy family room. The kitchen boasts modern appliances, ample counter space, and a convenient island. Adjacent to the kitchen and dining area, the spacious family room offers a warm ambiance, ideal for gatherings with loved ones or relaxing evenings. Windows allow natural light to illuminate the space, creating a bright and cheerful atmosphere. The home sits on .25 acre and offers a fenced backyard.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,588 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,652 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$64/yr (+$5/mo · 4.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,637
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,588
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,411
• − Management: −$1,411
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$4,704
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,129
• After-tax cash flow: $-44/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — East Milton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #199
• US rank: #3139

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Milton, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 31,415
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,828
• Household income: $85,440
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 122.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.35%
• Current HPI: 301.8819
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-0.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $199,000 PARMLS
• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $204,000 PARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $209,500 PARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $215,000 PARMLS
• 2024-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-01 Pending — PARMLS
• 2024-04-29 Sold (MLS) $200,000 PARMLS
• 2024-04-02 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2024-03-15 Listed $200,000 PARMLS

Property tax history

+16.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,588 · +94.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.