537 Hillwell Rd · Chesapeake, VA 23322

$445,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,807 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1965 0.34 ac lot Est $475k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to a solid brick ranch in the heart of Great Bridge! One-floor living at its finest — everything right at your fingertips. Step inside to find updated LVP flooring, fresh white paint, and spacious rooms built to last. The kitchen brings unique vintage charm paired with updated appliances including a new dishwasher and refrigerator, plus updated lighting throughout. Cozy up by the gorgeous gas fireplace in the carpeted living area. Out back, a 4-season sunroom awaits — make it a gym, lounge, or office, the choice is yours. The attached garage is convenient, but the star of the show is the fully insulated, AC-equipped detached garage — the ultimate man cave, workshop

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Ample parking
• Updated lvp flooring

Tags

• SOLID BRICK RANCH
• UPDATED LVP FLOORING
• GORGEOUS GAS FIREPLACE
• 4-SEASON SUNROOM
• AMPLE PARKING
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA fees

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Detached 1-car garage; Multiple additional car spaces; Driveway parking
• Utilities: City/County water; City/County sewer; Gas water heater
• Home design: Detached ranch-style home; 1.5 stories; Crawl foundation
• Construction: Brick siding; Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: In-ground sprinkler system; Back privacy/picket fence; Detached workshop; Storage shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Refrigerator; Energy Star appliances
• Bedrooms: First-floor master bedroom; One bedroom with ensuite
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Garage door opener; Generator hookup; Bar; Gas fireplace; Permanent attic stairs; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Dryer hookup; Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $445k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-114 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $425k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $346k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $346k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.7% in Chesapeake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#236 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living C-, amenities F.
• Chesapeake City Public School District (suburban): math 58% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #31 of 131 in VA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Butts Road Primary (545 students, 13% FRL); Great Bridge High (math 60% / reading 87%, grade B+, #124 of 319 statewide, top 40%, 1,624 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 596 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 597 units permitted in Chesapeake city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($135k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesapeake County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($438k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $375k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $346,393 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.10%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $475,241
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
412 Warhawks Rd	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,750 (-3%)	3mo	$480,000	$274	88
533 Scarborough Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,900 (+5%)	4mo	$500,000	$263	80
505 Scarborough Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,713 (-5%)	1mo	$410,000	$239	79
624 Luray Ter	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,793 (-1%)	4mo	$485,000	$270	77
505 Summit Ridge Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,773 (-2%)	5mo	$489,900	$276	73
601 Warren Ave	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,000 (+11%)	0mo	$535,000	$268	71
528 Rebel Rd	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,873 (+4%)	5mo	$479,000	$256	71
605 Resh Ct	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,904 (+5%)	2mo	$485,000	$255	65
316 Melonie Ct	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,716 (-5%)	5mo	$385,000	$224	63
627 Luray Ter	0.41mi	4/3.5	1,973 (+9%)	0mo	$490,000	$248	59
500 Peren Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (-13%)	6mo	$442,000	$280	58
276 Bridgeview Cir	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,953 (+8%)	3mo	$440,000	$225	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-74,293
• Equity at exit: $66,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-52,566
• Equity at exit: $38,475

Cash invested: $124,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23322

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 596
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,464 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax from tax record: −$331 /mo · $3,977/yr
• Insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$727
• Net cashflow: $-114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,608

Max offer price $424,863

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $138	-5% $12	+0% $-114	+5% $-240	+10% $-366
Rent	-10% $-388	-5% $-251	+0% $-114	+5% $23	+10% $160
Rate	-1.0pp $110	-0.5pp $-1	base $-114	+0.5pp $-229	+1.0pp $-347

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,250
• Closing costs: $13,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
201 Frank Dr Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.0	1933	$3,250	$1.68	21d	1	0.85mi
917 Calhoun Way Chesapeake, VA	3.0	3.5	2500	$4,000	$1.60	16d	1	0.89mi
340 Briarfield Dr Chesapeake, VA	4.0	3.5	1924	$2,995	$1.56	24d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $445,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $445,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $445,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $445,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $445,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $445,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $445,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $445,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $445,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $445,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $445,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $445,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-28
    listed $445,000 Active
14. 2023-03-29
    soldstatus $375,000
15. 2023-02-28
    historical Active Under Contract
16. 2023-02-24
    listed $375,000 Active
17. 1977-10-25
    soldstatus $48,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,977 · $331/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,977 · $331/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,567
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,927
• − Property taxes: −$3,977
• − Insurance: −$2,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,325
• − Management: −$3,325
• − Depreciation: −$12,945
• Taxable loss: −$9,158
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,198
• After-tax cash flow: $830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesapeake City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100810
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $69,356
• Composite: 57.84/100
• National rank: #1047
• State rank: #31 of 131 in VA

Livability — Chesapeake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #236
• US rank: #7942

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chesapeake, VA
• County: Chesapeake City · 253,091 people
• City population: 253,091
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 66,956
• Household income: $134,880
• Rent vs Own: 9.9% rent · 90.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 507.0

Population outlook (Chesapeake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 263,804 people
• By 2030: 276,798 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 299,906 · +13.7%
• By 2050: 318,284 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 362,137 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 372,225 · +41.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 9% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesapeake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.3% · R 47.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: 1.3pp · 2024: 3.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.8 2020: D+6.5 2016: R+1.3 2012: D+1.1 2008: D+1.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -357.58%
• Current HPI: 312.495
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.46%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+810.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $445,000 REINMLS
• 2023-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $375,000 Public Records
• 2023-02-28 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2023-02-24 Listed $375,000 REINMLS
• 1977-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $48,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,977 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.