212 NW Ave C · Carrabelle, FL 32322

$459,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,390 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1971 0.38 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unique home within 5 minutes of boat launch and public beach access! Main home has 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, spacious kitchen, and large living area for entertaining guest. 1 bed/1 bath attached apartment comes with a full kitchen & separate living room. Both main home and apartment have access to a large back yard. This property also includes a car port with storage room, 2 large sheds, covered pet kennel, covered lawn care storage area, and a covered awning for outside grilling and dinning. Main home is currently used as short-term rental however could comfortably live in main home and rent the back apartment for extra income. Units can be enjoyed together or separated by already installed lock outdoor. Home is situated on three city lots. MUST SEE PROPERTY! Seller has a 4 Point Inspection and Wind Mitigation Report

Key facts

• 0.38 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1971

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Driveway; 4 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane available; Electricity connected (generator on property); Cable available
• Home design: Detached single-family residence; New construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Workshop and storage structures on site; Built as new construction
• Exterior features: Patio; Covered patio; Porch; French doors; Chain link and wood fencing; Corner lot; Landscaped

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Pantry; Walk-in closets; Bookcases; Recessed lighting; Storage; Double pane windows; Fireplace

🏗️ New construction. The $459,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $301,140.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $460k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $951 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $396k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $396k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 1.9% in Carrabelle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#466 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Franklin (rural): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #67 of 73 in FL (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 320 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 113 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($432k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $375k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $396,400 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.53%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $301,140
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
606 W 3rd St	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,355 (-2%)	14mo	$297,000	$126	78
501 NW Avenue F St	0.22mi	4/3.0	2,470 (+3%)	23mo	$165,000	$67	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $11,862
• Equity at exit: $44,901

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $88,775
• Equity at exit: $26,037

Cash invested: $84,319 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32322

• Home prices YoY: -8.8%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,964 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,579
• Tax from tax record: −$476 /mo · $5,716/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$832
• Net cashflow: $951

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,761

Max offer price $301,140

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,285
• Closing costs: $9,034
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
105 Anglers Harbor Ln Unit 1545694P Carrabelle, FL	3.0	3.0	2195	$3,964	$1.81	13d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $459,900 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $459,900 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $459,900 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $459,900 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $459,900 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $459,900 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $459,900 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $459,900 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $459,900 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $459,900 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $459,900 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $459,900 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $459,900 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $459,900 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $459,900 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $459,900 Active 60 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $459,900 Active 59 DOM
18. 2026-05-20
    price $459,900
19. 2026-05-13
    price $469,900
20. 2026-04-01
    listed $475,000 Active
21. 2024-08-06
    soldstatus $375,000 Closed 837-char remark

    Show marketing remark (837 chars)

    Unique home within 5 minutes of boat launch and public beach access! Main home has 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, spacious kitchen, and large living area for entertaining guest. 1 bed/1 bath attached apartment comes with a full kitchen & separate living room. Both main home and apartment have access to a large back yard. This property also includes a car port with storage room, 2 large sheds, covered pet kennel, covered lawn care storage area, and a covered awning for outside grilling and dinning. Main home is currently used as short-term rental however could comfortably live in main home and rent the back apartment for extra income. Units can be enjoyed together or separated by already installed lock outdoor. Home is situated on three city lots. MUST SEE PROPERTY! Seller has a 4 Point Inspection and Wind Mitigation Report

22. 2024-07-11
    historical Active Under Contract 837-char remark

    Show marketing remark (837 chars)

    Unique home within 5 minutes of boat launch and public beach access! Main home has 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, spacious kitchen, and large living area for entertaining guest. 1 bed/1 bath attached apartment comes with a full kitchen & separate living room. Both main home and apartment have access to a large back yard. This property also includes a car port with storage room, 2 large sheds, covered pet kennel, covered lawn care storage area, and a covered awning for outside grilling and dinning. Main home is currently used as short-term rental however could comfortably live in main home and rent the back apartment for extra income. Units can be enjoyed together or separated by already installed lock outdoor. Home is situated on three city lots. MUST SEE PROPERTY! Seller has a 4 Point Inspection and Wind Mitigation Report

23. 2024-03-09
    listed $399,900 Active 837-char remark

    Show marketing remark (837 chars)

    Unique home within 5 minutes of boat launch and public beach access! Main home has 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, spacious kitchen, and large living area for entertaining guest. 1 bed/1 bath attached apartment comes with a full kitchen & separate living room. Both main home and apartment have access to a large back yard. This property also includes a car port with storage room, 2 large sheds, covered pet kennel, covered lawn care storage area, and a covered awning for outside grilling and dinning. Main home is currently used as short-term rental however could comfortably live in main home and rent the back apartment for extra income. Units can be enjoyed together or separated by already installed lock outdoor. Home is situated on three city lots. MUST SEE PROPERTY! Seller has a 4 Point Inspection and Wind Mitigation Report

24. 2023-04-13
    price $399,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,716 · $476/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,716 · $476/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,568
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,869
• − Property taxes: −$5,716
• − Insurance: −$1,506
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,805
• − Management: −$3,805
• − Depreciation: −$8,760
• Taxable income: $7,106
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,705
• After-tax cash flow: $9,701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin
• NCES district ID: 1200570
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,084
• Composite: 29.7/100
• National rank: #6454
• State rank: #67 of 73 in FL

Livability — Carrabelle

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #466
• US rank: #8398

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carrabelle, FL
• Population (ZIP): 4,348

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,827 people
• By 2030: 11,839 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 11,707 · -1.0%
• By 2050: 11,218 · -5.1%
• By 2075: 9,849 · -16.7%
• By 2100: 7,286 · -38.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 15% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.7% · R 71.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -27.9pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+31.5 2008: R+27.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.76%
• Current HPI: 185.16
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+15.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $459,900 RAFGC
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $469,900 RAFGC
• 2026-04-01 Listed $475,000 RAFGC
• 2024-08-06 Sold (MLS) $375,000 RAFGC
• 2024-07-11 Contingent — RAFGC
• 2024-03-09 Listed $399,900 RAFGC
• 2023-04-13 Price Changed $399,900 RAFGC

Property tax history

+23.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,716 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.