6402 154th St NW #40 · Purdy, WA 98332

$59,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 271 Days on market

Built 1977 $64/sqft · 98% above area ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move into this 2 bedroom home in the quiet all ages community of Cedars MHP. If you love gardening and privacy, this home is for you with its large fenced yard in the back of the park with all the privacy you would ever want. Owner left gardening tools to get you started in the very large shed. This 924 SF home has an open floor plan with kitchen with eating area, living room, 2 bedrooms, 1 bath with a jetted tub. Owner left the tile and cutting saw to finish the bathroom, light fixtures for the kitchen and bathroom, a new fan for the bedroom and a WIFI capable alarm system. Very mature landscaping, two sheds, large back deck, carport with attached shed too. Park rent $795 including water/s

Key facts

• Large back deck
• Open floor plan
• Very large shed

Tags

• LARGE FENCED YARD
• VERY LARGE SHED
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• JETTED TUB
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• LARGE BACK DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $52k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#196 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A-; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Peninsula School District (suburban): math 61% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #21 of 291 in WA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 215 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $411 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 271 days — a 12% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $52,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 271 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 94.41%
• DSCR: 5.20
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $29,992
• List price: $59,500
• Delta: 98.39%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6402 154th St NW #6	0.00mi	2/1.0	924 (0%)	11mo	$30,000	$32	91
6217 156th St NW	0.23mi	2/2.0	924 (0%)	23mo	$282,500	$306	66
6402 154th St NW #20	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+14%)	19mo	$91,000	$86	56
15503 Cedar Park Rd SE #48	0.70mi	3/1.5 (+1)	966 (+4%)	20mo	$115,000	$119	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 95.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.43×
• Total profit: $73,831
• Equity at exit: $8,872

10-year hold

• IRR: 98.0%
• Equity multiple: 11.31×
• Total profit: $171,764
• Equity at exit: $5,144

Cash invested: $16,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98332

• Active inventory: 215
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,105 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$312
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $190/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $1,311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $446

Max offer price $59,500

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,344	-5% $1,328	+0% $1,311	+5% $1,294	+10% $1,277
Rent	-10% $1,144	-5% $1,228	+0% $1,311	+5% $1,394	+10% $1,477
Rate	-1.0pp $1,341	-0.5pp $1,326	base $1,311	+0.5pp $1,295	+1.0pp $1,280

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,875
• Closing costs: $1,785
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6321 151st St NW Unit 6317 Gig Harbor, WA	2.0	1.5	987	$1,950	$1.98	21d	1	0.12mi
6313 151st St NW Gig Harbor, WA	3.0	1.0	1092	$1,895	$1.74	45d	1	0.14mi
1676 SE Pine Rd Port Orchard, WA	2.0	1.0	1044	$2,400	$2.30	14d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $59,500 Active 271 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,500 Active 268 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,500 Active 267 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,500 Active 266 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,500 Active 265 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,500 Active 263 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,500 Active 259 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,500 Active 258 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $59,500 Active 257 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $59,500 Active 254 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,500 Active 253 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,500 Active 252 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,500 Active 251 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,500 Active 250 DOM
15. 2026-02-03
    price $59,500
16. 2025-10-21
    price $62,500
17. 2025-09-23
    listed $69,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $190 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $583 · $49/mo
• Expected delta: +$394/yr (+$33/mo · 207.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,265
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,333
• − Property taxes: −$190
• − Insurance: −$298
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,021
• − Management: −$2,021
• − Depreciation: −$1,731
• Taxable income: $15,672
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,761
• After-tax cash flow: $11,967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Peninsula School District
• NCES district ID: 5306690
• Math proficiency: 61% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $76,796
• Composite: 60.35/100
• National rank: #1718
• State rank: #21 of 291 in WA

Livability — Purdy

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #5322

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A- Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Purdy, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 20,072
• Household income: $135,330
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 218.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -638.13%
• Current HPI: 335.5178
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-14.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $59,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $62,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-23 Listed $69,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+32.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $190 · -7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.