509 N Main St · Caneyville, KY 42721

$94,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Other · 337 Days on market

Built 1940

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute 2 bedroom house with lots of updates! New flooring, kitchen cabinets, windows, paint. This adorable home would make a great fit for a first time home, rental or for someone looking to downsize.

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Versatile office
• Wrap-around porch

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• VERSATILE OFFICE
• WRAP-AROUND PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Circular driveway
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; 1 story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Built as 1-story (above-grade finished area listed)
• Exterior features: Porch; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $94k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $294 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $83k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 2.1% in Caneyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#182 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Grayson County (rural): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #84 of 165 in KY (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $650 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 337 days — a 12% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 337 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.42%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $3,508
• Equity at exit: $14,016

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $27,165
• Equity at exit: $8,127

Cash invested: $26,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42721

• Home prices YoY: -3.9%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,144 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$493
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $930/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $772

Max offer price $94,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $348	-5% $321	+0% $294	+5% $268	+10% $241
Rent	-10% $204	-5% $249	+0% $294	+5% $340	+10% $385
Rate	-1.0pp $342	-0.5pp $318	base $294	+0.5pp $270	+1.0pp $245

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,500
• Closing costs: $2,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $94,000 Pending 337 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $94,000 Active 337 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $94,000 Active 336 DOM
4. 2026-03-10
   price $94,000
5. 2025-10-30
   price $99,000
6. 2025-08-27
   price $105,000
7. 2025-08-06
   price $115,000
8. 2025-07-17
   price $120,000
9. 2025-06-28
   listed $125,500 Active
10. 2022-08-12
    soldstatus $98,000 198-char remark

    Show marketing remark (198 chars)

    Cute 2 bedroom house with lots of updates! New flooring, kitchen cabinets, windows, paint. This adorable home would make a great fit for a first time home, rental or for someone looking to downsize.

11. 2022-08-12
    soldstatus $98,000

    Show marketing remark (198 chars)

    Cute 2 bedroom house with lots of updates! New flooring, kitchen cabinets, windows, paint. This adorable home would make a great fit for a first time home, rental or for someone looking to downsize.

12. 2022-05-04
    listed $105,000 198-char remark

    Show marketing remark (198 chars)

    Cute 2 bedroom house with lots of updates! New flooring, kitchen cabinets, windows, paint. This adorable home would make a great fit for a first time home, rental or for someone looking to downsize.

13. 2019-10-28
    soldstatus $47,900
14. 2019-07-22
    soldstatus $15,000 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    This 1 bedroom, 1 bath house awaits a new owner to restore the original charm of the home. There is an additional room that could be used as a second bedroom. The home has a partial wrap around porch and sits on .33 acres. There is enough space to add a drive that wraps around the home from highway 79 to King Drive. This property is being sold ''As Is''.

15. 2019-05-25
    listed $24,500 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    This 1 bedroom, 1 bath house awaits a new owner to restore the original charm of the home. There is an additional room that could be used as a second bedroom. The home has a partial wrap around porch and sits on .33 acres. There is enough space to add a drive that wraps around the home from highway 79 to King Drive. This property is being sold ''As Is''.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $930 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $930 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,731
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,265
• − Property taxes: −$930
• − Insurance: −$470
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,098
• − Management: −$1,098
• − Depreciation: −$2,735
• Taxable income: $2,134
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$512
• After-tax cash flow: $3,020/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grayson County
• NCES district ID: 2102300
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $34,256
• Composite: 27.55/100
• National rank: #6944
• State rank: #84 of 165 in KY

Livability — Caneyville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #182
• US rank: #9075

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Caneyville, KY
• City population: 4,302
• Population (ZIP): 4,302

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,840 people
• By 2030: 27,032 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 27,236 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 27,076 · +0.9%
• By 2075: 26,565 · -1.0%
• By 2100: 24,007 · -10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.8) · D 18.5% · R 80.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.9pp toward R · 2008: -34.9pp · 2024: -61.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.8 2020: R+58.8 2016: R+59.3 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+34.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.73%
• Current HPI: 337.3074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+283.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $94,000 GORAMLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $99,000 GORAMLS
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $105,000 GORAMLS
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $115,000 GORAMLS
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $120,000 GORAMLS
• 2025-06-28 Listed $125,500 GORAMLS
• 2022-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $98,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-12 Sold (MLS) $98,000 RASKMLS
• 2022-05-04 Listed $105,000 RASKMLS
• 2019-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $47,900 Public Records
• 2019-07-22 Sold (MLS) $15,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2019-05-25 Listed $24,500 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+13.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $930 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.