Stacy Plan · Hinesville, GA 31313

$245,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,585 sqft · SingleFamily · 114 Days on market

Good condition $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Stacy plan, located in the charming neighborhood of The Park at 15 West, is a lovely 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home. Experience an open-concept living space with a spacious great room, dining area, and corner kitchen with a dedicated pantry. Upstairs, a flexible loft area can serve as an office or craft space. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet, garden tub, separate shower, and more! Artistic renderings are for informational purposes only, and actual floor plans and inclusions may vary.

Key facts

• Corner kitchen
• Walk-in closet
• Dedicated pantry

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• FLEXIBLE LOFT AREA
• CORNER KITCHEN
• DEDICATED PANTRY
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• GARDEN TUB

🏗️ New construction. The $245,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $284,828.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $246k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-349 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#51 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, commute D+, crime F.
• Liberty County (urban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #133 of 174 in GA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 911 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 471 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $208,806 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.25%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,828
• List price: $245,900
• Delta: -13.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
93 Brightleaf Cir	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,603 (+1%)	3mo	$272,900	$170	80
153 Brightleaf Cir	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,455 (-8%)	0mo	$262,000	$180	69
307 Lumpkin Ln	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,608 (+2%)	9mo	$222,000	$138	68
592 Brightleaf Cir	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,560 (-2%)	13mo	$279,000	$179	68
217 Brightleaf Cir	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,643 (+4%)	6mo	$284,998	$173	67
168 Alcove Ct	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,533 (-3%)	4mo	$265,000	$173	64
254 Grayson Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,581 (-0%)	14mo	$255,000	$161	54
34 Daylily Ct	0.32mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,808 (+14%)	10mo	$296,900	$164	48
425 Brightleaf Cir	0.48mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,810 (+14%)	4mo	$297,000	$164	45
330 Cowart Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,785 (+13%)	11mo	$194,500	$109	36
380 Brightleaf Cir	0.53mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,800 (+14%)	14mo	$305,000	$169	34
267 Grayson Ave	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,740 (+10%)	15mo	$299,000	$172	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-63,135
• Equity at exit: $42,469

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-61,027
• Equity at exit: $24,627

Cash invested: $79,752 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 47 active · 33 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.5 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $272,900 ($160/sqft)
• Median days on market: 114 d
• This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31313

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 911
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,088 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,272/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-349

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,530

Max offer price $234,354

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-152	-5% $-250	+0% $-349	+5% $-447	+10% $-546
Rent	-10% $-514	-5% $-431	+0% $-349	+5% $-266	+10% $-184
Rate	-1.0pp $-205	-0.5pp $-276	base $-349	+0.5pp $-423	+1.0pp $-498

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,207
• Closing costs: $8,545
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1300 Independence Place Dr Hinesville, GA	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	983	$1,752	$1.78	1d	19	0.35mi
133 Brightleaf Cir Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1455	$2,100	$1.44	5d	1	0.35mi
600 Brightleaf Cir Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1603	$2,300	$1.43	139d	1	0.41mi
410 Conley Dr Hinesville, GA	3.0	3.0	1742	$1,900	$1.09	3d	1	0.47mi
924 Sanford Ln Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1801	$1,995	$1.11	139d	1	0.51mi
827 Terrell Dr Hinesville, GA	4.0	3.0	2128	$1,950	$0.92	5d	1	0.53mi
200 Alcove Ct Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1672	$2,300	$1.38	1d	1	0.62mi
649 Piedmont Ave Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1646	$2,400	$1.46	5d	1	0.74mi
203 Guyett Ave Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1593	$2,000	$1.26	139d	1	0.83mi
235 Augusta Way Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1449	$2,250	$1.55	5d	1	0.88mi
203 Grandview Dr Unit 1 Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	2046	$2,150	$1.05	3d	1	0.95mi
1301 Grayson Ave Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	2034	$1,900	$0.93	5d	1	1.04mi
624 Amhearst Row Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	2039	$2,025	$0.99	3d	1	1.08mi
1257 Grayson Ave Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1753	$2,100	$1.20	5d	1	1.08mi
511 Wyckfield Way Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	2070	$2,475	$1.20	139d	1	1.09mi
2538 Cove St Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1133	$1,650	$1.46	139d	1	1.12mi
1110 Creekside Cir Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1356	$2,000	$1.47	139d	1	1.12mi
501 Burke Dr Hinesville, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1132	$1,939	$1.71	5d	28	1.16mi
881 Grayson Ave Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1987	$2,200	$1.11	3d	1	1.22mi
238 Marron Way Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.0	1877	$1,975	$1.05	3d	1	1.23mi
264 Marron Way Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1997	$2,200	$1.10	139d	1	1.23mi
403 Valdez Ct Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1810	$2,000	$1.10	139d	1	1.41mi
409 Valdez Ct Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1587	$1,700	$1.07	5d	1	1.43mi
34 Wythe St Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1978	$2,200	$1.11	139d	1	1.44mi
241 Whipple Ave Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1339	$2,000	$1.49	3d	1	1.45mi
248 Bender St Hinesville, GA	3.0	3.0	1633	$2,100	$1.29	5d	1	1.45mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price available (active listing)
• HOA & community: Association fee: $30 (association)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric heating availableCentral air conditioning
• Home design: Single-family plan (Stacy)Address: W 15th Street, Hinesville, GA
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,585
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area (plan: Stacy)Plan inventory type: Plan

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $245,900 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $245,900 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $245,900 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $245,900 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $245,900 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $245,900 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $245,900 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $245,900 Active 107 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $245,900 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $245,900 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $245,900 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $245,900 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $245,900 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $245,900 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $245,900 Active 95 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $245,900 Active 94 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $245,900 Active 93 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $245,900 Active 90 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $245,900 Active 89 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $245,900 Active 88 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $245,900 Active 87 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $245,900 Active 86 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $245,900 Active 85 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $245,900 Active 84 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $245,900 Active 83 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $245,900 Active 82 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $245,900 Active 81 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $245,900 Active 80 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $245,900 Active 79 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $245,900 Active 78 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $245,900 Active 77 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $245,900 Active 76 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $245,900 Active 75 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $245,900 Active 74 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $245,900 Active 73 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $245,900 Active 72 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $245,900 Active 71 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $245,900 Active 70 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $245,900 Active 69 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $245,900 Active 68 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $245,900 Active 67 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $245,900 Active 66 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $245,900 Active 65 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $245,900 Active 64 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $245,900 Active 63 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $245,900 Active 60 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $245,900 Active 59 DOM
48. 2026-07-29
    days on market $245,900 Active 58 DOM
49. 2026-07-27
    days on market $245,900 Active 56 DOM
50. 2026-07-25
    days on market $245,900 Active 54 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,057
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,955
• − Property taxes: −$4,272
• − Insurance: −$1,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,005
• − Management: −$2,005
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$8,286
• Taxable loss: −$9,250
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,220
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,966/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in a desirable neighborhood is ready for immediate occupancy. It offers a good condition with potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more appealing and energy-efficient. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 20/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Waldo Pafford Elementary School F GA #790/1,228 Nat'l #31,549/41,679 Middle Snelson-Golden Middle School F GA #372/470 Nat'l #12,017/14,009 High Bradwell Institute F GA #243/424 Nat'l #14,491/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty County
• NCES district ID: 1303300
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $43,911
• Composite: 20.2/100
• National rank: #8630
• State rank: #133 of 174 in GA

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Hinesville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #5200

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hinesville, GA
• County: Liberty County · 58,689 people
• City population: 42,838
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 42,838
• Household income: $60,233
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,689 people
• By 2030: 57,670 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 55,750 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 54,155 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 58,947 · +0.4%
• By 2100: 66,919 · +14.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 47% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: D (+17.4) · D 58.5% · R 41.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.9pp toward R · 2008: 28.4pp · 2024: 17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.4 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+21.2 2012: D+30.2 2008: D+28.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.50%
• Current HPI: 208.0927
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.41%
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price available (active listing)
• HOA & community: Association fee: $30 (association)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric heating availableCentral air conditioning
• Home design: Single-family plan (Stacy)Address: W 15th Street, Hinesville, GA
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,585
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area (plan: Stacy)Plan inventory type: Plan