451 Hamilton Ave · Wood River, IL 62095

$79,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,294 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1930 5,227 sqft lot Est $135k · 41% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Many updates, addition in back was in 2002 and new kitchen in 2012, 4 bedrooms, family room, 2 outbuildings, fenced back yard, attached carport. Walking distance to schools, shopping and aquatic center. Agent related to seller.

Key facts

• Carpet flooring
• Vinyl siding
• Tile flooring

Tags

• VINYL SIDING
• TILE FLOORING
• CARPET FLOORING
• CONVENIENT CARPORT
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• LOCAL AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property condition: Fixer

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Electric: Other
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential house; Two levels; Entry level: Main
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Other foundation details; Built/Year info provided by owner
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Lot features: Other

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total (3 bedrooms on the main level, 1 bedroom on the upper level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $540 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 5.9% in Wood River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#214 in IL, #4,027 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities C-, commute D+, employment D+.
• East Alton-Wood River Chsd 14 (suburban): math 10% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #793 of 919 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: East Alton-Wood River High Sch (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #567 of 693 statewide, top 83%, 537 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 336 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.95%
• DSCR: 2.29
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $134,576
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
537 Tipton Ave	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,300 (+0%)	7mo	$147,500	$113	79
41 W Penning Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,289 (-0%)	5mo	$159,999	$124	77
447 N 3rd St	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,443 (+12%)	2mo	$89,900	$62	71
641 Leslie Ave	0.25mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,348 (+4%)	6mo	$165,000	$122	69
469 Tipton Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,142 (-12%)	3mo	$130,000	$114	64
734 Berry Rd	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,300 (+0%)	6mo	$80,000	$62	60
549 Mchugh St	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,372 (+6%)	2mo	$154,000	$112	58
712 Condit St	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-13%)	0mo	$99,900	$89	57
409 N 6th St	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,103 (-15%)	1mo	$115,000	$104	49
38 N Main St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,160 (-10%)	3mo	$77,500	$67	49
830 N Wood River Ave	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (-13%)	7mo	$45,000	$40	40
367 Elble Ave	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (-13%)	1mo	$100,000	$89	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $21,536
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $63,465
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62095

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,564 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$243 /mo · $2,920/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $540

Break-even live

Break-even rent $881

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
135 E Acton Ave Wood River, IL	4.0	2.0	1560	$1,750	$1.12	43d	1	0.21mi
1400 Brushey Grove Ave Wood River, IL	4.0	1.5	1050	$1,600	$1.52	1d	1	1.15mi
176 S Pence St East Alton, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	1d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,900 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-04-29
    price $79,900
15. 2026-04-22
    price $84,900
16. 2026-04-11
    listed $89,900 Active
17. 2014-05-28
    soldstatus 227-char remark

    Show marketing remark (227 chars)

    Many updates, addition in back was in 2002 and new kitchen in 2012, 4 bedrooms, family room, 2 outbuildings, fenced back yard, attached carport. Walking distance to schools, shopping and aquatic center. Agent related to seller.

18. 2014-03-13
    listed $91,000 227-char remark

    Show marketing remark (227 chars)

    Many updates, addition in back was in 2002 and new kitchen in 2012, 4 bedrooms, family room, 2 outbuildings, fenced back yard, attached carport. Walking distance to schools, shopping and aquatic center. Agent related to seller.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,920 · $243/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,920 · $243/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$2,920
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,501
• − Management: −$1,501
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $5,642
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,354
• After-tax cash flow: $5,122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Alton-Wood River Chsd 14
• NCES district ID: 1712990
• Math proficiency: 10% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $35,977
• Composite: 15.86/100
• National rank: #14315
• State rank: #793 of 919 in IL

Livability — Wood River

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #214
• US rank: #4027

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wood River, IL
• County: Madison County · 189,064 people
• City population: 10,726
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 10,726
• Household income: $65,013
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 383.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 258,371 people
• By 2030: 251,523 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 233,640 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 213,042 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 165,255 · -36.0%
• By 2100: 123,953 · -52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 6% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+13.3) · D 42.5% · R 55.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.5pp toward R · 2008: 9.2pp · 2024: -13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.3 2020: R+13.2 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+1.4 2008: D+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.69%
• Current HPI: 217.1264
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-12.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $79,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $84,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-11 Listed $89,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-28 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-13 Listed $91,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,920 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.