Athena Plan · Ruskin, FL 34219

$319,731

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,504 sqft · SingleFamily · 188 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enter through the front porch into a foyer with two bedrooms and a full bath located near the front of the home. The laundry room and coat closet are also accessible from this hallway. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the dining area and great room, creating a spacious main living space. Toward the back, the primary bedroom features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the great room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the foyer.

Key facts

• Laundry room
• Kitchen
• Front porch

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• COAT CLOSET
• KITCHEN
• DINING AREA
• GREAT ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $319,731

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric service; Central air; Heat pump
• Home design: New construction plan; Single-story (plan information)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1504; Plan: Athena
• Exterior features: Located at 13112 Bending Creek Trl, Parrish, FL 34219

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric and heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan named Athena; Active listing

🏗️ New construction. The $319,731 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $323,360.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-815/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $314k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $274k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $274,273 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.90%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $323,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10468 Curving Creek Loop	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+1%)	1mo	$319,990	$210	88
10724 Gentle Current Way	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,498 (-0%)	1mo	$322,000	$215	78
12431 Hopscotch Ave	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,498 (-0%)	2mo	$312,000	$208	77
12420 Hopscotch Ave	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,498 (-0%)	1mo	$330,000	$220	76
10473 Curving Creek Loop	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,366 (-9%)	2mo	$279,990	$205	74
10628 Hidden Banks Gln	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,504 (0%)	3mo	$323,750	$215	74
10515 Curving Creek Loop	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,366 (-9%)	1mo	$306,990	$225	73
10631 Hidden Banks Gln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,504 (0%)	2mo	$306,000	$203	73
10464 Curving Creek Loop	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,366 (-9%)	3mo	$309,959	$227	73
10643 Hidden Banks Gln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,504 (0%)	3mo	$311,480	$207	72
10908 Curving Creek Loop	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,675 (+11%)	1mo	$329,990	$197	66
10704 Gentle Current Way	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-12%)	3mo	$325,000	$245	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-64,720
• Equity at exit: $48,214

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-92,822
• Equity at exit: $27,958

Cash invested: $90,541 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,743 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,696
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$404 /mo · $4,850/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$576
• Net cashflow: $-68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,829

Max offer price $313,533

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,840
• Closing costs: $9,701
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10473 Curving Creek Loop Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,500	$1.83	14d	1	0.18mi
10826 Sapphire Breeze Cv Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,500	$1.35	3d	1	0.25mi
10646 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,350	$1.56	16d	1	0.56mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,731 Active 188 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,731 Active 187 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,731 Active 186 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,731 Active 185 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,731 Active 183 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,731 Active 182 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $319,731 Active 180 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,731 Active 179 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $319,731 Active 178 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $319,731 Active 177 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $319,731 Active 173 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $319,731 Active 172 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,731 Active 171 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,731 Active 170 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,913
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,113
• − Property taxes: −$4,850
• − Insurance: −$1,617
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,633
• − Management: −$2,633
• − Depreciation: −$9,407
• Taxable loss: −$6,341
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,522
• After-tax cash flow: $707/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B