427 E Locust St · Tyler, TX 75702

$185,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,408 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 309 Days on market

Built 1930 5,924 sqft lot $131/sqft · 7% above area Est $195k · 5% under ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home in a great location close to shopping, downtown, and local hospitals. Functional layout with comfortable living spaces and a kitchen that opens to the main areas. Convenient access to everything you need, making it a great option for both homeowners and investors. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 5,924 sq ft lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 309 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-315/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.6% in Tyler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#147 in TX, #4,181 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime D+.
• Tyler ISD (urban): math 39% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #449 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 155 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 309 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,734 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 309 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.61%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $195,183
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -5.22%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
602 N Bois D Arc Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,365 (-3%)	10mo	$233,500	$171	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-32,761
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-35,175
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75702

• Home prices YoY: -5.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,497 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,943/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $-26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $180,366

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
425 E Oakwood St Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,540	$1.19	43d	1	0.17mi
324 S Saunders Ave Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,100	$1.27	43d	1	0.50mi
431 S College Ave Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	1380	$1,750	$1.27	43d	1	0.59mi
431 S College Ave Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	1380	$1,650	$1.20	21d	1	0.59mi
611 N Border Ave Unit 300 Tyler, TX	2.0	1.5	1008	$1,200	$1.19	43d	1	0.66mi
526 S Bonner Ave Apt 4 Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	1120	$1,175	$1.05	21d	1	0.78mi
411 N Fuller Ave Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1246	$1,850	$1.48	43d	1	0.79mi
714 W Bow St Unit B Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	969	$785	$0.81	13d	1	0.83mi
1421 E Front St Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	965	$1,125	$1.17	13d	1	0.84mi
132 Rowland Pl Unit b Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	1170	$1,295	$1.11	21d	1	0.86mi
613 S Baxter Ave Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,250	$1.15	21d	1	0.88mi
539 Williams Ct Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	1352	$1,415	$1.05	21d	1	0.93mi
420 E Dodge St Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	940	$950	$1.01	13d	1	0.93mi
211 Patricia Ct Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,795	$1.37	43d	1	0.99mi
1104 W Park St Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,650	$1.15	21d	1	1.02mi
522 W Dobbs St Tyler, TX	3.0	1.0	1127	$1,395	$1.24	13d	1	1.07mi
305 E Lake St Tyler, TX	2.0	1.5	1287	$1,695	$1.32	13d	1	1.10mi
1421 E Idel St Tyler, TX	3.0	1.5	1080	$1,300	$1.20	13d	1	1.10mi
811 S Mahon Ave Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1761	$1,900	$1.08	43d	1	1.15mi
507 W Shaw St Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	1005	$1,250	$1.24	13d	1	1.16mi
1118 S Fleishel Ave Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1425	$1,495	$1.05	13d	1	1.18mi
501 W Vance St Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,350	$1.16	43d	1	1.18mi
311 N Virginia Ave Tyler, TX	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,395	$1.34	21d	1	1.20mi
328 Mockingbird Ln Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	1200	$950	$0.79	13d	1	1.22mi
1115 S Robertson Ave Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	1366	$1,550	$1.13	13d	1	1.23mi
1729 E Arnold St Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	1074	$1,295	$1.21	21d	1	1.24mi
720 N Englewood Ave Tyler, TX	3.0	1.0	1856	$1,650	$0.89	43d	1	1.25mi
1403 S Donnybrook Ave Tyler, TX	3.0	3.0	1834	$2,150	$1.17	43d	1	1.25mi
809 W Harmony St Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,500	$1.15	43d	1	1.25mi
1618 N Tenneha Ave Tyler, TX	3.0	1.0	1587	$1,400	$0.88	13d	1	1.26mi
826 W Franklin St Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,550	$1.22	13d	1	1.28mi
1800 W Oakwood St Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$975	$1.08	21d	1	1.45mi
1806 W Oakwood St Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$975	$1.08	21d	1	1.46mi
1004 S Porter Ave Unit 1004 Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	926	$1,395	$1.51	43d	1	1.47mi
1523 N Englewood Ave Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1542	$1,650	$1.07	43d	1	1.49mi
1822 W Oakwood St Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	43d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 322-char remark

   Show marketing remark (322 chars)

   3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home in a great location close to shopping, downtown, and local hospitals. Functional layout with comfortable living spaces and a kitchen that opens to the main areas. Convenient access to everything you need, making it a great option for both homeowners and investors. Schedule your showing today!

2. 2026-05-04
   price $185,000 322-char remark

   Show marketing remark (322 chars)

   3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home in a great location close to shopping, downtown, and local hospitals. Functional layout with comfortable living spaces and a kitchen that opens to the main areas. Convenient access to everything you need, making it a great option for both homeowners and investors. Schedule your showing today!

3. 2025-10-18
   price $211,594 322-char remark

   Show marketing remark (322 chars)

   3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home in a great location close to shopping, downtown, and local hospitals. Functional layout with comfortable living spaces and a kitchen that opens to the main areas. Convenient access to everything you need, making it a great option for both homeowners and investors. Schedule your showing today!

4. 2025-07-03
   listed $249,900 Active 322-char remark

   Show marketing remark (322 chars)

   3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home in a great location close to shopping, downtown, and local hospitals. Functional layout with comfortable living spaces and a kitchen that opens to the main areas. Convenient access to everything you need, making it a great option for both homeowners and investors. Schedule your showing today!

5. 2019-06-10
   soldstatus
6. 2011-05-04
   soldstatus
7. 1999-04-05
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,943 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,386 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,443/yr (+$120/mo · 74.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,968
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,943
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,437
• − Management: −$1,437
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$3,519
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$845
• After-tax cash flow: $530/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tyler ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,090
• Composite: 32.69/100
• National rank: #5650
• State rank: #449 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tyler

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #147
• US rank: #4181

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tyler, TX
• County: Smith County · 180,570 people
• City population: 127,842
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,927
• Household income: $51,564
• Rent vs Own: 47.1% rent · 52.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Black 37% White 12% Two or more races 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 44%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.63%
• Current HPI: 207.1573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.27%
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-26.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $185,000 GTAR
• 2025-10-18 Price Changed $211,594 GTAR
• 2025-07-03 Listed $249,900 GTAR
• 2019-06-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-05-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-04-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,943 · +17.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.