3145 Hidden Lake Dr · Wesley Chapel, FL 33543

$144,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 864 sqft · Manufactured public records · 555 Days on market

Built 1986 4,124 sqft lot Est $103k · 40% over $217/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable 2/2 . REMODELED, with NEW Floors, NEW Kitchen Appliances, NEW Paint inside and out, New Counter tops and Kitchen Cabinets, The Pipes under the House have been Replace. Your Monthly HOA fees include, TRASH, WATER, and SEWER, Gated Community with Club House, Billiards Room, Pool, Hot Tub, Dock, Pond with Beautiful Waterfall. 20 minutes away from Tampa!! Don't Miss out on this Turn key property.

Key facts

• 4,124 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; Homestead exempt
• Financial info: Total annual fees $2,604; Monthly HOA $217
• HOA & community: Community: Ashley association with monthly fee of $217; Association fee includes guard (24 hour), pool, structure and grounds maintenance, management, private road, recreational facilities, security, sewer, trash and water; Community features include street lights; Pets allowed (with limits)

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport (1 space)
• Security: 24-hour guard (community amenity)
• Utilities: Well water; Public sewer; Cable available/connected; Electricity available; Phone available; Underground utilities; Water available/connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); One story; Facing East; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Lighting; Rain gutters; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Dishwasher; Freezer; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Kitchen/family room combo; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other; Electric water heater; Water softener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $144k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $93 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $144k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 638 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $996 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 555 days — a 12% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $96k; list at $144k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 555 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.77%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $102,816
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34630 Petunia Pl	0.51mi	2/2.0	864 (0%)	10mo	$115,000	$133	68
34121 Tree Lake Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	988 (+14%)	9mo	$118,000	$119	66
34552 Rosebud Row	0.51mi	2/2.0	864 (0%)	19mo	$118,000	$137	60
34704 Morning Glory Gln	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	888 (+3%)	6mo	$60,000	$68	58
34632 Sweetpea Ln	0.53mi	2/1.0	816 (-6%)	6mo	$70,000	$86	57
34616 Morning Glory Gln	0.52mi	2/2.0	960 (+11%)	8mo	$53,000	$55	50
34537 Morning Glory Gln	0.48mi	2/2.0	960 (+11%)	19mo	$140,000	$146	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-21,912
• Equity at exit: $21,471

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-28,854
• Equity at exit: $12,450

Cash invested: $40,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33543

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 638
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,582 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$755
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,491/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$217
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,464

Max offer price $144,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $175	-5% $134	+0% $93	+5% $52	+10% $12
Rent	-10% $-32	-5% $31	+0% $93	+5% $156	+10% $218
Rate	-1.0pp $166	-0.5pp $130	base $93	+0.5pp $56	+1.0pp $18

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,000
• Closing costs: $4,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3030 Beaver Creek Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	15d	1	0.18mi
3829 Kim Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	832	$1,395	$1.68	25d	1	0.77mi
33780 Charleston Club Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$1,956	$1.85	0d	13	1.00mi
33976 Lusitano Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1251	$2,284	$1.82	13d	71	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $217 · $2,604/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashpoolsecurity

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,000 Active 555 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,000 Active 554 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,000 Active 553 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,000 Active 552 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $144,000 Active 550 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $146,000 Active 546 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $146,000 Active 545 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $146,000 Active 544 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $146,000 Active 541 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $146,000 Active 540 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $146,000 Active 539 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $146,000 Active 538 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $146,000 Active 537 DOM
14. 2024-12-10
    listed $146,000 Active
15. 2024-12-04
    historical
16. 2024-10-23
    price $150,000
17. 2024-08-07
    price $155,000
18. 2024-08-01
    listed $154,000 Active
19. 2024-05-24
    soldstatus $96,000
20. 2018-08-06
    soldstatus $63,000
21. 2018-08-03
    soldstatus $63,000 Sold 405-char remark

    Show marketing remark (405 chars)

    Adorable 2/2 . REMODELED, with NEW Floors, NEW Kitchen Appliances, NEW Paint inside and out, New Counter tops and Kitchen Cabinets, The Pipes under the House have been Replace. Your Monthly HOA fees include, TRASH, WATER, and SEWER, Gated Community with Club House, Billiards Room, Pool, Hot Tub, Dock, Pond with Beautiful Waterfall. 20 minutes away from Tampa!! Don't Miss out on this Turn key property.

22. 2018-07-11
    status Pending 405-char remark

    Show marketing remark (405 chars)

    Adorable 2/2 . REMODELED, with NEW Floors, NEW Kitchen Appliances, NEW Paint inside and out, New Counter tops and Kitchen Cabinets, The Pipes under the House have been Replace. Your Monthly HOA fees include, TRASH, WATER, and SEWER, Gated Community with Club House, Billiards Room, Pool, Hot Tub, Dock, Pond with Beautiful Waterfall. 20 minutes away from Tampa!! Don't Miss out on this Turn key property.

23. 2018-06-22
    price $64,500 405-char remark

    Show marketing remark (405 chars)

    Adorable 2/2 . REMODELED, with NEW Floors, NEW Kitchen Appliances, NEW Paint inside and out, New Counter tops and Kitchen Cabinets, The Pipes under the House have been Replace. Your Monthly HOA fees include, TRASH, WATER, and SEWER, Gated Community with Club House, Billiards Room, Pool, Hot Tub, Dock, Pond with Beautiful Waterfall. 20 minutes away from Tampa!! Don't Miss out on this Turn key property.

24. 2018-05-14
    listed $68,000 Active 405-char remark

    Show marketing remark (405 chars)

    Adorable 2/2 . REMODELED, with NEW Floors, NEW Kitchen Appliances, NEW Paint inside and out, New Counter tops and Kitchen Cabinets, The Pipes under the House have been Replace. Your Monthly HOA fees include, TRASH, WATER, and SEWER, Gated Community with Club House, Billiards Room, Pool, Hot Tub, Dock, Pond with Beautiful Waterfall. 20 minutes away from Tampa!! Don't Miss out on this Turn key property.

25. 2007-05-10
    soldstatus $44,000
26. 2007-05-09
    soldstatus $44,000
27. 2007-03-28
    listed $47,900
28. 2005-02-21
    soldstatus $37,900
29. 2005-02-18
    soldstatus $37,900
30. 2004-07-01
    listed $39,900
31. 1994-09-23
    soldstatus $12,400
32. 1987-09-01
    soldstatus $10,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,491 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,491 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,981
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,066
• − Property taxes: −$1,491
• − Insurance: −$720
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,518
• − Management: −$1,518
• − HOA: −$2,604
• − Depreciation: −$4,189
• Taxable loss: −$1,126
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$270
• After-tax cash flow: $1,388/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wesley Chapel, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,648
• Household income: $107,349
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Black 12% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.13%
• Current HPI: 263.2513
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1290.5% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2024-12-10 Listed $146,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-23 Price Changed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-07 Price Changed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-01 Listed $154,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $96,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-03 Sold (MLS) $63,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-22 Price Changed $64,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-14 Listed $68,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records
• 2007-05-09 Sold (MLS) $44,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-28 Listed $47,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-02-21 Sold (Public Records) $37,900 Public Records
• 2005-02-18 Sold (MLS) $37,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-01 Listed $39,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $12,400 Public Records
• 1987-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,491 · +263.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.