20020 Hickory St · Detroit, MI 48205

$22,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 871 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1943 5,227 sqft lot $26/sqft · 40% below area Est $38k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Built 1943
• Listed 86 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $22k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $907 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $22k).
• Recommended offer: $21k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 54.7% vs local median 10.2% in Detroit — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 373 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $156 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $675 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($21k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $21,150 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 54.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 172.84%
• DSCR: 8.69
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $37,711
• List price: $22,500
• Delta: -40.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13452 Tacoma St	0.22mi	3/1.0	900 (+3%)	1mo	$69,072	$77	83
20218 Hickory St	0.12mi	3/1.0	930 (+7%)	1mo	$26,000	$28	82
20300 Hickory St	0.20mi	3/1.0	918 (+5%)	1mo	$31,000	$34	81
20543 Waltham St	0.49mi	3/1.0	890 (+2%)	1mo	$50,000	$56	73
12753 Georgiana Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0	888 (+2%)	2mo	$120,000	$135	69
14027 Tacoma St	0.45mi	2/1.5 (-1)	860 (-1%)	2mo	$34,000	$40	68
20218 Goulburn St	0.33mi	3/1.0	965 (+11%)	1mo	$12,000	$12	66
13046 Sherman Ave	0.63mi	4/1.0 (+1)	870 (-0%)	1mo	$120,000	$138	64
19730 Goulburn St	0.37mi	3/1.5	977 (+12%)	1mo	$114,000	$117	60
19170 Schoenherr St	0.59mi	3/1.0	797 (-8%)	0mo	$25,500	$32	58
12416 Vernon Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0	944 (+8%)	2mo	$128,000	$136	52
20541 Barlow St	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (+12%)	2mo	$60,000	$61	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.24×
• Total profit: $51,933
• Equity at exit: $3,355

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.60×
• Total profit: $110,859
• Equity at exit: $1,945

Cash invested: $6,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48205

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 373
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,354 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$118
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $419/yr
• Insurance: −$9
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $907

Break-even live

Break-even rent $205

Max offer price $22,500

Occupancy floor 28%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,625
• Closing costs: $675
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20027 Alcoy St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,349	$1.35	17d	1	0.08mi
20227 Pelkey St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	968	$1,350	$1.39	17d	1	0.16mi
20242 Hickory St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	747	$1,300	$1.74	11d	1	0.17mi
20215 Schoenherr St Unit 1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	18d	1	0.18mi
20296 Waltham St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	986	$1,300	$1.32	17d	1	0.41mi
20091 Barlow St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	930	$1,300	$1.40	17d	1	0.45mi
13669 Pfent St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1031	$1,374	$1.33	17d	1	0.47mi
12807 Coleen Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,250	$1.16	24d	1	0.51mi
19220 Alcoy St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1023	$1,350	$1.32	17d	1	0.52mi
12846 Georgiana Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	912	$1,300	$1.43	24d	1	0.52mi
13501 Vernon Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	850	$1,300	$1.53	24d	1	0.56mi
14068 Carlisle St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1020	$1,300	$1.27	24d	1	0.56mi
19170 Joann St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.0	1020	$1,400	$1.37	44d	1	0.57mi
20553 Hamburg St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1074	$1,300	$1.21	4d	1	0.59mi
19143 Fairport St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1070	$1,225	$1.14	17d	1	0.61mi
21412 Waltham Rd Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	696	$1,225	$1.76	44d	1	0.80mi
13050 Couwlier Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	850	$1,350	$1.59	24d	1	0.81mi
14461 Lappin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	989	$1,150	$1.16	17d	1	0.85mi
18624 Fairport St Unit NA Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	924	$1,450	$1.57	24d	1	0.87mi
18624 Fairport St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	874	$1,450	$1.66	22d	1	0.87mi
18703 Waltham St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	44d	1	0.87mi
18681 Barlow St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1041	$1,400	$1.34	24d	1	0.91mi
19335 Hoover St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	620	$1,099	$1.77	17d	1	1.00mi
19335 Hoover St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	620	$1,099	$1.77	44d	1	1.00mi
18119 Joann St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	24d	1	1.02mi
22852 Sharrow Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	5d	1	1.31mi
17851 Strasburg St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1079	$1,100	$1.02	17d	1	1.33mi
11228 Sherman Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	13d	1	1.35mi
11513 Greiner St Unit 11521 Greiner Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	942	$1,050	$1.11	44d	1	1.44mi
11319 Chalmers Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	975	$1,500	$1.54	24d	1	1.47mi
15663 Carlisle St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	803	$1,050	$1.31	15d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $22,500 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $22,500 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $22,500 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $22,500 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $22,500 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $22,500 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $22,500 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $22,500 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $22,500 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $22,500 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $22,500 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $22,500 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $22,500 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-03-24
    listed $22,500 Active
15. 2026-03-24
    listed $22,500 Active
16. 2026-03-24
    listed $22,500 Active
17. 2026-02-11
    historical
18. 2026-02-10
    status Active
19. 2025-06-20
    status Pending
20. 2025-06-20
    status Pending
21. 2025-06-20
    historical
22. 2025-06-13
    listed $13,000 Active
23. 2025-06-13
    listed $13,000 Active
24. 2008-02-27
    historical
25. 2008-01-10
    listed $9,900
26. 1994-08-31
    soldstatus $16,000
27. 1994-08-31
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $419 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $419 · $35/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,260
• − Property taxes: −$419
• − Insurance: −$112
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,300
• − Management: −$1,300
• − Depreciation: −$655
• Taxable income: $11,202
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,689
• After-tax cash flow: $8,200/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 34,187
• Household income: $38,966
• Rent vs Own: 49.4% rent · 50.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2121.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 93% White 3% Two or more races 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.80%
• Current HPI: 235.0926
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.33%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+40.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Listed $22,500 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-24 Listed $22,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $22,500 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-02-11 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-10 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2025-06-20 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-06-20 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-06-20 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-06-13 Listed $13,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-06-13 Listed $13,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-02-27 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2008-01-10 Listed $9,900 REALCOMP
• 1994-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1994-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $419 · -52.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.