141 Paradise Ln · Auburndale, FL 33823

$123,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 732 sqft · Manufactured public records · 155 Days on market

Built 1972 3,999 sqft lot $68/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Ariana Shores, a sought-after 55+ resident-owned waterfront community in Auburndale. This beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers numerous updates and true pride of ownership both inside and out. Luxury vinyl flooring flows throughout the home, creating a bright and cohesive living space. Major improvements include a newer A/C (2022/2023), updated electrical panel, hot water heater 2023, roof coated in 2025, updated tie-downs, new siding (2021/2022), most electrical outlets replaced, and all windows updated in 2021/2022 with the exception of the utility/laundry room. The home is truly move-in ready. This beautiful home is not sold furnished, but most furnishings are

Key facts

• Roof coated
• Newer a/c
• Hot water heater

Tags

• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• NEWER A/C
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL PANEL
• HOT WATER HEATER
• ROOF COATED
• UPDATED TIE-DOWNS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total lot about 0.09 acres (0 to less than 1/4 acre)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA; buyer approval required; Monthly HOA about $68.75 (quarterly fee $206.25); HOA includes pool; Clubhouse; Golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed with size limit (max ~20 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Underground utilities; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Mobile home (single wide); One level; Northeast facing; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Estimated 1204 living area
• Exterior features: Lake access; Assigned boat slip; Private boat ramp; Asphalt road; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other; Irrigation equipment

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $123k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $307 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $123k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#48 in FL, #905 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute C-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 476 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $850 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.70%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-132
• Equity at exit: $18,340

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $26,070
• Equity at exit: $10,635

Cash invested: $34,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33823

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 476
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$645
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $415/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$68
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $307

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,011

Max offer price $123,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,750
• Closing costs: $3,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $68 · $816/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $123,000 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $123,000 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $123,000 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $123,000 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $123,000 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $123,000 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $123,000 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $123,000 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $123,000 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $123,000 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $123,000 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $123,000 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $123,000 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-05-04
    price $123,000
15. 2026-01-14
    listed $124,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $415 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,021 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$606/yr (+$50/mo · 145.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,799
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,890
• − Property taxes: −$415
• − Insurance: −$615
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,344
• − Management: −$1,344
• − HOA: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$3,578
• Taxable income: $1,797
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$431
• After-tax cash flow: $3,253/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Auburndale

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #905

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Auburndale, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 41,779
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,779
• Household income: $71,485
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 821.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 13% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Philippines
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.70%
• Current HPI: 316.9436
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.18%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-1.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $123,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Listed $124,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $415 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.