Chestnut II Plan · Heartland, TX 75114

$231,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,411 sqft · SingleFamily · 1004 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-story home has a classic layout with everything a growing family needs. The open living area includes a family room, dining area and modern kitchen which has a door to the backyard. Three bedrooms connect to the living area, including the owner's suite, which has a private bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 1003 days

🏗️ New construction. The $231,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $262,149.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $232k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-198 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: W A Martin El (math 41% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 644 students, 71% FRL); Crandall Middle (math 38% / reading 42%, grade F, #646 of 1,662 statewide, top 40%, 983 students, 60% FRL); Crandall H S (math 33% / reading 53%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 1,707 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 41% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 956 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1004 days — a 12% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $204,159 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 1004 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.24%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,149
• List price: $231,999
• Delta: -11.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2924 Hearts Trl	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,411 (0%)	2mo	$232,999	$165	72
2909 Hearts Trl	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,411 (0%)	2mo	$237,859	$169	70
4011 Springfield Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+3%)	2mo	$255,000	$175	70
2933 Hearts Trl	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,411 (0%)	2mo	$204,999	$145	70
1907 Wild Orchard Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-1%)	0mo	$212,000	$152	68
2530 Smoke Passage St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+4%)	2mo	$209,549	$142	68
2923 Hearts Trl	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-1%)	3mo	$210,999	$150	68
3902 Spencer Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+9%)	1mo	$255,000	$166	67
3011 Rosemount Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,381 (-2%)	1mo	$250,000	$181	64
1707 Twin Foals Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,276 (-10%)	2mo	$209,000	$164	60
2992 Cedeno Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,577 (+12%)	1mo	$250,000	$159	53
2947 Hearts Trl	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,266 (-10%)	2mo	$201,999	$160	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-55,068
• Equity at exit: $39,087

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-64,076
• Equity at exit: $22,666

Cash invested: $73,402 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 87 active · 65 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.6 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $254,000 ($176/sqft)
• Median days on market: 92 d
• This list price: 31% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75114

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 956
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,042 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,375
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$328 /mo · $3,932/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,293

Max offer price $233,479

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-17	-5% $-108	+0% $-198	+5% $-289	+10% $-379
Rent	-10% $-359	-5% $-279	+0% $-198	+5% $-117	+10% $-37
Rate	-1.0pp $-66	-0.5pp $-131	base $-198	+0.5pp $-266	+1.0pp $-335

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,537
• Closing costs: $7,864
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1734 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$2,095	$1.28	30d	1	0.19mi
1734 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$2,095	$1.28	35d	1	0.19mi
1275 Eclipse Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,750	$1.36	38d	1	0.24mi
1264 Eclipse Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,950	$1.32	23d	1	0.24mi
1789 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,739	$1.04	52d	1	0.29mi
1793 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,709	$1.03	37d	1	0.30mi
1799 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,800	$1.43	93d	1	0.31mi
2409 Fleming Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	73d	1	0.31mi
2911 S Griffin Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$2,450	$1.91	12d	1	0.34mi
4001 Fairmont Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1545	$2,000	$1.29	93d	1	0.34mi
2510 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	73d	1	0.35mi
2521 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	73d	1	0.36mi
2513 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	73d	1	0.37mi
2746 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	73d	1	0.38mi
3909 Chesapeake Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,300	$1.31	12d	1	0.38mi
2745 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	73d	1	0.41mi
2739 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	73d	1	0.41mi
4002 Bighorn Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,120	$1.55	51d	1	0.43mi
2710 Trail Ride Way Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	9d	1	0.44mi
1507 Trick Riding Way Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,900	$1.03	73d	1	0.45mi
1507 Trick Riding Way Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,800	$0.97	30d	1	0.45mi
2826 Hudson Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1639	$2,350	$1.43	41d	1	0.50mi
2624 Bartlett St Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	73d	1	0.50mi
2908 Hearts Trl Crandall, TX	3.0	3.0	1266	$1,750	$1.38	93d	1	0.59mi
1930 Wild Orchard Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,865	$1.32	93d	1	0.60mi
2919 Cascade Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,200	$1.49	93d	1	0.62mi
1925 Wild Orchard Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,850	$1.46	26d	1	0.63mi
3221 Sioux Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1672	$2,450	$1.47	28d	1	0.71mi
2311 Alcantara Ave Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,665	$1.36	34d	1	0.71mi
2511 Cornado Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,844	$1.49	17d	1	0.73mi
1441 Reiner Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1356	$2,115	$1.56	29d	1	0.73mi
1209 Kings Pl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,975	$1.46	50d	1	0.73mi
2504 Cornado Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,799	$1.25	93d	1	0.75mi
2603 Khaju Grv Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,699	$1.34	52d	1	0.75mi
2403 Hesperus Ave Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,750	$1.21	21d	1	0.76mi
2294 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,815	$1.43	73d	1	0.77mi
2402 Hesperus Ave Crandall, TX	2.0	1.0	1011	$1,745	$1.73	2d	1	0.77mi
1412 Reiner Dr Crandall, TX	2.0	2.0	996	$1,900	$1.91	29d	1	0.78mi
2302 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,650	$1.30	52d	1	0.78mi
2306 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,695	$1.34	93d	1	0.79mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $231,999 Active 1004 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $231,999 Active 1002 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $231,999 Active 1001 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $231,999 Active 1000 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $231,999 Active 999 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $231,999 Active 996 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $231,999 Active 995 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $231,999 Active 994 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $231,999 Active 993 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $231,999 Active 991 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $231,999 Active 989 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $231,999 Active 988 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $231,999 Active 987 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $231,999 Active 986 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $231,999 Active 985 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $231,999 Active 983 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $231,999 Active 982 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $231,999 Active 981 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $231,999 Active 980 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $231,999 Active 979 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $231,999 Active 978 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $231,999 Active 977 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $231,999 Active 976 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $231,999 Active 975 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $231,999 Active 974 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $231,999 Active 972 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $231,999 Active 971 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $231,999 Active 970 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $231,999 Active 969 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $231,999 Active 968 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $231,999 Active 967 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $231,999 Active 966 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $231,999 Active 965 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $231,999 Active 964 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $231,999 Active 963 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $231,999 Active 961 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $231,999 Active 959 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $231,999 Active 957 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $231,999 Active 956 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $231,999 Active 953 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $231,999 Active 952 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $231,999 Active 951 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $231,999 Active 950 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $231,999 Active 948 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $231,999 Active 944 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $231,999 Active 943 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $231,999 Active 942 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $231,999 Active 939 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $231,999 Active 938 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $231,999 Active 937 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,509
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,684
• − Property taxes: −$3,932
• − Insurance: −$1,311
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,961
• − Management: −$1,961
• − Depreciation: −$7,626
• Taxable loss: −$6,966
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,672
• After-tax cash flow: $-706/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,055–$21,165 screening

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It has a good curb appeal and is ready for a new owner.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary W A Martin El F TX #1,883/4,322 Nat'l #22,441/41,679 Middle Crandall Middle F TX #646/1,662 Nat'l #6,005/14,009 High Crandall H S F TX #713/1,632 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815510
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,076
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4901
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Heartland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heartland, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 138,716 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,333
• Household income: $88,013
• Rent vs Own: 12.7% rent · 87.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.61%
• Current HPI: 196.4773
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2024-03-05 Price Changed $231,999 Zillow
• 2024-02-28 Price Changed $229,999 Zillow
• 2024-02-27 Price Changed $234,999 Zillow
• 2023-12-08 Price Changed $239,999 Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $289,999 Zillow