7866 Monterey Dr · Tillmans Corner, AL 36582

$233,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,205 sqft · SingleFamily · 135 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,534 sqft lot $194/sqft · at area comps Est $236k · at est. $28/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

UNDER CONSTRUCTION*** Welcome to 7866 Monterey Drive in Theodore, Alabama one of our new homes at Oakmont Place. The Callaway is one of our single-story floorplans featured at Oakmont Place in Theodore, Alabama. This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home has 1,205 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. As you enter from a welcoming front porch, you will notice this cozy residence maximizes functionality and comfort. The Callaway features an open-concept layout that seamlessly blends the eat-in kitchen and living area, perfect for modern living. The kitchen offers shaker-style cabinetry and stainless-steel appliances. Continuing into the home, you will pass a laundry closet and opposite are two bedrooms that provide flexibility for a home office or guest room. Situated between the two bedrooms is a linen closet and a shared bathroom with a shower/tub combination. The primary bedroom is to the opposite corner of the home and has access to a private ensuite with a linen closet, shower/tub combination and large walk-in closet. The Callaway includes a Home is Connected smart home technology package which allows you to control your home with your smart device while near or away. This home is also being built to FORTIFIED Gold HomeTM certification. Pictures may be of a similar home and not necessarily of the subject property. Pictures are representational only.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Built 2026
• Listed 134 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $234k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-352 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (21.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (30.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#260 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pearl Haskew Elementary (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #296 of 627 statewide, top 49%, 502 students, 68% FRL); Katherine H Hankins Middle School (math 7% / reading 38%, grade F, #180 of 257 statewide, top 70%, 808 students, 82% FRL); Theodore High School (math 10% / reading 12%, grade F, #247 of 305 statewide, top 81%, 1,280 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools at 70% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 309 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,650 (30.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.44%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,543
• List price: $233,900
• Delta: -2.82%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7856 Monterey Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	2mo	$225,900	$187	97
7867 Monterey Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	5mo	$228,900	$190	95
7777 Oakmont Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	2mo	$228,900	$190	94
6140 Pin Oak Dr E	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	2mo	$228,900	$190	92
7778 Oakmont Dr N	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	4mo	$225,900	$187	92
7729 Oakmont Dr N	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	3mo	$225,900	$187	92
6311 Oakland Ct	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	4mo	$228,900	$190	91
7702 Oakmont Dr E	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	0mo	$225,900	$187	91
7739 Oakmont Dr N	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	4mo	$225,900	$187	91
7665 Oakmont Dr E	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	3mo	$228,900	$190	88
5950 Idlemoore Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,242 (+3%)	2mo	$169,500	$136	58
6208 Anthony Dr W	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+14%)	3mo	$222,000	$161	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-60,253
• Equity at exit: $34,875

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-81,132
• Equity at exit: $20,223

Cash invested: $65,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 18 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.7 mo (21%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $234,288 ($170/sqft)
• Median days on market: 122 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +15.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 36582

• Home prices YoY: -19.1%
• Active inventory: 309
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,636 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,227
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$292 /mo · $3,508/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$28
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $-352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,082

Max offer price $183,024

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-190	-5% $-271	+0% $-352	+5% $-432	+10% $-513
Rent	-10% $-481	-5% $-416	+0% $-352	+5% $-287	+10% $-222
Rate	-1.0pp $-234	-0.5pp $-292	base $-352	+0.5pp $-412	+1.0pp $-474

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,475
• Closing costs: $7,017
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7411 Wigfield Rd Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,650	$1.33	93d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $233,900 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $233,900 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $233,900 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $233,900 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   pricedays on market $233,900 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $228,900 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $228,900 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $228,900 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $228,900 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $228,900 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $228,900 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $228,900 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $228,900 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $228,900 Active 118 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $228,900 Active 117 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $228,900 Active 114 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $228,900 Active 112 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $228,900 Active 111 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $228,900 Active 110 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $228,900 Active 109 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $228,900 Active 108 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $228,900 Active 107 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $228,900 Active 106 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $228,900 Active 105 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $228,900 Active 104 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $228,900 Active 103 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $228,900 Active 102 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $228,900 Active 101 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $228,900 Active 100 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $228,900 Active 99 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $228,900 Active 98 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $228,900 Active 97 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $228,900 Active 96 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $228,900 Active 95 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $228,900 Active 94 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $228,900 Active 93 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $228,900 Active 92 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $228,900 Active 90 DOM
39. 2026-06-23
    days on market $228,900 Active 88 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $228,900 Active 87 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $228,900 Active 84 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $228,900 Active 83 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $228,900 Active 82 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $228,900 Active 81 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $228,900 Active 79 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $228,900 Active 78 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $228,900 Active 76 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $228,900 Active 75 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $228,900 Active 74 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $228,900 Active 73 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,638
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,102
• − Property taxes: −$3,508
• − Insurance: −$1,170
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,571
• − Management: −$1,571
• − HOA: −$336
• − Depreciation: −$6,804
• Taxable loss: −$8,424
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,022
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,197/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping to enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting — Neutral paint color can be refreshed to enhance curb appeal ↑
• Rental Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can attract tenants ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 23/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Pearl Haskew Elementary F AL #296/627 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Katherine H Hankins Middle School F AL #180/257 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Theodore High School F AL #247/305 Nat'l #15,923/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Tillmans Corner

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #260
• US rank: #18090

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tillmans Corner, AL
• County: Mobile County · 415,303 people
• City population: 14,550
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• Population (ZIP): 23,705
• Household income: $64,763
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 18% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.61%
• Current HPI: 209.7621
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $228,900 GCMLS AL