12702 N 305th Ave · Buckeye, AZ 85396

$354,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,049 sqft · Land · 234 Days on market

Built 2025 5,445 sqft lot $109/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Jubilee steals the show with its spacious living concept, perfect for entertaining and everyday comfort. White cabinets with beige countertop and wood like tile flooring in the Refined package

Key facts

• White cabinets
• Private bath
• Tile flooring

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PRIVATE BATH
• WHITE CABINETS
• QUARTZ KITCHEN COUNTERS
• TILE FLOORING
• RESORT-STYLE SWIMMING POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA with monthly fee (maintenance of grounds included); Additional monthly association fee; Community pool, playground, fitness center, and biking/walking paths; Association rules prohibit visible trucks, trailers, RVs, and boats

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles; 2-car garage with direct access and garage door opener
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership; Complete spec home; New construction; Home warranty included
• Construction: Stucco and wood frame construction; Spray foam insulation; Low-VOC painted interior; Tile/concrete roof
• Exterior features: Block fencing; Front sprinklers; Dirt backyard; Gravel/stone front landscaping; Pool access via community amenities; Playground access via community amenities; Biking/walking path access via community amenities; Fitness center access via community amenities

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Built-in microwave; Pantry; Gas stub provided for range; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating with ENERGY STAR qualified equipment; Central air conditioning; ENERGY STAR qualified cooling equipment; Programmable thermostat; Multi-zone HVAC
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Smart home features; Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; 9+ flat ceilings; No interior steps; Kitchen island; Pantry; 3/4 bath in primary bedroom; Low-emissivity dual-pane vinyl frame windows; ENERGY STAR qualified windows and light fixtures; Fresh air mechanical ventilation; Multi-zone climate control; Tankless hot water heater; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; ENERGY STAR rated laundry equipment (see remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $355k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-558 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (22.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (28.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.1% in Buckeye — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#53 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Saddle Mountain Unified School District (4254) (rural): math 26% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #117 of 249 in AZ (top 47%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Tartesso Elementary School (math 36% / reading 35%, grade F, #461 of 1,109 statewide, top 42%, 355 students, 43% FRL); Tonopah Valley High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 865 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 951 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 234 days — a 12% lower offer ($312k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $66k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $253,744 (28.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 234 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.73%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-91,886
• Equity at exit: $52,930

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-120,971
• Equity at exit: $30,693

Cash invested: $99,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85396

• Home prices YoY: -18.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 951
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,537 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,862
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$444 /mo · $5,325/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$109
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $-558

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,243

Max offer price $274,294

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-312	-5% $-435	+0% $-558	+5% $-680	+10% $-803
Rent	-10% $-758	-5% $-658	+0% $-558	+5% $-457	+10% $-357
Rate	-1.0pp $-379	-0.5pp $-467	base $-558	+0.5pp $-650	+1.0pp $-743

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,748
• Closing costs: $10,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $109 · $1,308/yr

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $354,990 Pending 234 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $354,990 Active 234 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $354,990 Active 232 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $354,990 Active 231 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $354,990 Active 228 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $354,990 Active 227 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $354,990 Active 226 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $354,990 Active 223 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $354,990 Active 222 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $354,990 Active 221 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $354,990 Active 220 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $354,990 Active 219 DOM
13. 2026-05-23
    price $354,990 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    The Jubilee steals the show with its spacious living concept, perfect for entertaining and everyday comfort. White cabinets with beige countertop and wood like tile flooring in the Refined package

14. 2026-04-25
    status Active 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    The Jubilee steals the show with its spacious living concept, perfect for entertaining and everyday comfort. White cabinets with beige countertop and wood like tile flooring in the Refined package

15. 2026-04-25
    historical 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    The Jubilee steals the show with its spacious living concept, perfect for entertaining and everyday comfort. White cabinets with beige countertop and wood like tile flooring in the Refined package

16. 2026-04-16
    price $354,990
17. 2026-04-02
    price $359,990 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    The Jubilee steals the show with its spacious living concept, perfect for entertaining and everyday comfort. White cabinets with beige countertop and wood like tile flooring in the Refined package

18. 2026-04-02
    price $359,990

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    The Jubilee steals the show with its spacious living concept, perfect for entertaining and everyday comfort. White cabinets with beige countertop and wood like tile flooring in the Refined package

19. 2026-03-12
    price $369,990 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    The Jubilee steals the show with its spacious living concept, perfect for entertaining and everyday comfort. White cabinets with beige countertop and wood like tile flooring in the Refined package

20. 2026-03-12
    price $413,990 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    The Jubilee steals the show with its spacious living concept, perfect for entertaining and everyday comfort. White cabinets with beige countertop and wood like tile flooring in the Refined package

21. 2026-03-12
    price $369,990 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    The Jubilee steals the show with its spacious living concept, perfect for entertaining and everyday comfort. White cabinets with beige countertop and wood like tile flooring in the Refined package

22. 2026-03-07
    price $369,990
23. 2026-01-28
    price $413,990 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    The Jubilee steals the show with its spacious living concept, perfect for entertaining and everyday comfort. White cabinets with beige countertop and wood like tile flooring in the Refined package

24. 2026-01-28
    price $413,990

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    The Jubilee steals the show with its spacious living concept, perfect for entertaining and everyday comfort. White cabinets with beige countertop and wood like tile flooring in the Refined package

25. 2026-01-02
    price $415,990 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    The Jubilee steals the show with its spacious living concept, perfect for entertaining and everyday comfort. White cabinets with beige countertop and wood like tile flooring in the Refined package

26. 2025-12-31
    price $415,990
27. 2025-12-19
    status Active 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    The Jubilee steals the show with its spacious living concept, perfect for entertaining and everyday comfort. White cabinets with beige countertop and wood like tile flooring in the Refined package

28. 2025-12-19
    price $414,990 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    The Jubilee steals the show with its spacious living concept, perfect for entertaining and everyday comfort. White cabinets with beige countertop and wood like tile flooring in the Refined package

29. 2025-12-18
    price $414,990
30. 2025-11-07
    price $419,990
31. 2025-10-24
    historical 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    The Jubilee steals the show with its spacious living concept, perfect for entertaining and everyday comfort. White cabinets with beige countertop and wood like tile flooring in the Refined package

32. 2025-10-24
    listed $420,590 Active

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    The Jubilee steals the show with its spacious living concept, perfect for entertaining and everyday comfort. White cabinets with beige countertop and wood like tile flooring in the Refined package

33. 2025-10-22
    listed $420,590 Active 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    The Jubilee steals the show with its spacious living concept, perfect for entertaining and everyday comfort. White cabinets with beige countertop and wood like tile flooring in the Refined package

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,449
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,885
• − Property taxes: −$5,325
• − Insurance: −$1,775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,436
• − Management: −$2,436
• − HOA: −$1,308
• − Depreciation: −$10,327
• Taxable loss: −$13,042
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,130
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,562/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saddle Mountain Unified School District (4254)
• NCES district ID: 0407170
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $61,981
• Composite: 24.45/100
• National rank: #7666
• State rank: #117 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Buckeye

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #9428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buckeye, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 117,540
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 42,181
• Household income: $114,056
• Rent vs Own: 7.3% rent · 92.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 156.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 4% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.97%
• Current HPI: 246.4705
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-15.6% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $354,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-25 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-25 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $354,990 ARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $359,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $359,990 ARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $369,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $413,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $369,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $369,990 ARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $413,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $413,990 ARMLS
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $415,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-31 Price Changed $415,990 ARMLS
• 2025-12-19 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $414,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $414,990 ARMLS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $419,990 ARMLS
• 2025-10-24 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-24 Listed $420,590 ARMLS
• 2025-10-22 Listed $420,590 Zillow