14415 20th St E · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$435,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,197 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 5,998 sqft lot Est $461k · 6% under $174/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

PRICE REDUCED!! MOTIVATED SELLER!! BRING OFFERS!! Welcome to The Cove at Twin Rivers — one of Parrish's most sought-after communities! This stunning home, completed in 2022, offers 4 bedrooms, 3 full baths, and nearly 2200 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space. Step inside to find an open, split-bedroom layout featuring gorgeous wood-look tile flooring throughout the main living areas, solid-wood cabinets, stone countertops, and a chef-inspired kitchen with a massive island and pantry. The dedicated dining space just off the kitchen flows effortlessly to both a spacious living room and a covered lanai through the glass sliders — perfect for viewing the serene, wooded area

Key facts

• Massive island
• Covered lanai
• 5,998 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• WOOD-LOOK TILE FLOORING
• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• MASSIVE ISLAND
• DEDICATED DINING SPACE
• COVERED LANAI

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features include community mailbox, deed restrictions, dog park, playground, and tennis courts; Pets allowed; No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Cove at Twin Rivers / Twin Rivers Assoc., Inc.); Quarterly association fees; Association fees cover private road and recreational facilities; Monthly equivalent HOA amount listed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached garage with garage door opener; 2-car garage
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces northwest; Homesteaded
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by M/I (Calusa B model)
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Rear porch; Patio; Hurricane shutters; Landscaped yard; Paved areas; Flood zone

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Stone counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Open floorplan; Solid wood cabinets; Split bedroom layout; Stone counters; Thermostat; Tray ceilings; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Inside utility
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer (inside)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $435k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $361 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $435k).
• Recommended offer: $422k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 798 students, 31% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 32% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,854/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($114k/yr) (locally 219% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($422k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $421,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.75%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $461,370
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14514 20th St E	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,197 (0%)	2mo	$450,000	$205	96
14620 20th St E	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,197 (0%)	3mo	$413,500	$188	91
14519 Banks Ct	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,170 (-1%)	1mo	$444,999	$205	82
14314 17th Ct E	0.21mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,129 (-3%)	5mo	$462,500	$217	74
14404 20th St E	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,139 (-3%)	24mo	$450,000	$210	74
1825 Twin Rivers Trl	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,309 (+5%)	10mo	$730,000	$316	74
13805 22nd Ct E	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,446 (+11%)	23mo	$660,000	$270	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-61,390
• Equity at exit: $64,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-77,395
• Equity at exit: $37,611

Cash invested: $121,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,854 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax from tax record: −$411 /mo · $4,929/yr
• Insurance: −$181
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$174
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,019
• Net cashflow: $361

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,397

Max offer price $435,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,750
• Closing costs: $13,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1043 145th Street Cir NE Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2600	$7,000	$2.69	21d	1	0.99mi
16457 Woodside Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2748	$3,800	$1.38	23d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $174 · $2,088/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $435,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $435,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $435,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $435,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $435,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $435,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $435,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $435,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $435,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $435,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $438,500 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $438,500 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $442,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $442,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    listed $442,000 Active
16. 2024-10-23
    price $459,000
17. 2024-09-26
    listed $465,000 Active
18. 2022-03-18
    soldstatus $446,044
19. 2022-03-18
    listed $446,044

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,929 · $411/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,929 · $411/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,242
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,367
• − Property taxes: −$4,929
• − Insurance: −$7,294
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,659
• − Management: −$4,659
• − HOA: −$2,088
• − Depreciation: −$12,655
• Taxable loss: −$2,409
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$578
• After-tax cash flow: $4,904/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2022-built home in The Cove at Twin Rivers is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Updating light fixtures — Modern light fixtures can improve the home's curb appeal and functionality.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Updating light fixtures — Modern light fixtures can improve the home's curb appeal and functionality. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-0.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $442,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-23 Price Changed $459,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-26 Listed $465,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-18 Listed $446,044 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-18 Sold (MLS) $446,044 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+49.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,929 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.