1285 Phelps Dunham Rd · Edmonton, KY 42129

$125,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,012 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

Built 1990 Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks

This property is perfect for deer and turkey hunting. There is a detached garage and out building. A small creek runs through the property.

Key facts

• Out building
• Detached garage
• Small creek

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• OUT BUILDING
• SMALL CREEK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($368/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#112 in KY, #4,901 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Metcalfe County (rural): math 18% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #154 of 165 in KY (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Metcalfe County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,231 (9.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.05%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $70,049
• Equity at exit: $112,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.85×
• Total profit: $204,781
• Equity at exit: $242,848

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42129

• Home prices YoY: 9.4%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,132 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $125,000 Active 139-char remark
17. 2017-01-31
    listed $88,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,588
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,087
• − Management: −$1,087
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,725
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$414
• After-tax cash flow: $782/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

No photos provided, cannot assess condition or value. Property is in a rural setting with no visible structures or features.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Metcalfe County
• NCES district ID: 2104140
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $34,026
• Composite: 18.42/100
• National rank: #8935
• State rank: #154 of 165 in KY

Livability — Edmonton

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #4901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,044

Population outlook (Metcalfe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,350 people
• By 2030: 8,970 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 8,152 · -12.8%
• By 2050: 7,353 · -21.4%
• By 2075: 6,090 · -34.9%
• By 2100: 5,563 · -40.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Metcalfe

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.7) · D 17.2% · R 81.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.7pp toward R · 2008: -33.0pp · 2024: -64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.7 2020: R+59.5 2016: R+54.5 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+33.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.00%
• Current HPI: 267.7932
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+42.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $125,000 FSBO.com
• 2017-01-31 Listed $88,000 RASKMLS

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $240 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.