106 Arbolado Blvd · Gun Barrel City, TX 75156

$153,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Manufactured public records · 24 Days on market

Built 2024 Fair condition Est $174k · 11% under ↓ 16% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

@1/4 acre lot with additional 1/4 corner, available. All new install aug. 2023.18x76,owner pays half closing, and HOA trans. fee $750 earn. at colonial title

Key facts

• Built 2024
• Listed 23 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $154k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $248 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $154k).
• Recommended offer: $152k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.3% in Gun Barrel City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#519 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 694 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($152k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $151,591 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.91%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $173,736
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
153 Tres Lagos Blvd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+6%)	9mo	$189,500	$130	65
129 Tara Trace Cir	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,168 (-15%)	8mo	$131,000	$112	53
135 Butler Trl	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+15%)	23mo	$199,900	$127	52
105 Grande Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,498 (+10%)	22mo	$178,000	$119	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-13,926
• Equity at exit: $22,947

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-10,282
• Equity at exit: $13,306

Cash invested: $43,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 694
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,639 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$807
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,104/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $248

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,325

Max offer price $153,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,475
• Closing costs: $4,617
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
602 Legendary Ln Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$1,600	$1.10	43d	1	0.16mi
367 Box Rd Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,600	$1.32	43d	1	0.91mi
138 Loon Bay Dr Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,235	$0.95	12d	1	0.95mi
140 Loon Bay Dr Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,480	$1.14	43d	1	0.95mi
158 Westview Dr Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,314	$1.01	6d	1	1.02mi
149 Sunset Bay Dr Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,300	$1.00	24d	1	1.03mi
1319 W Main St Unit 1 Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.5	1545	$1,950	$1.26	43d	1	1.08mi
1319 W Main St #16 Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.5	1545	$1,695	$1.10	43d	1	1.13mi
851 Welch Ln Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1745	$2,200	$1.26	43d	1	1.40mi
112 Queenswood Dr Mabank, TX	4.0	2.0	1376	$1,595	$1.16	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $153,900 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $153,900 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $153,900 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $153,900 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $153,900 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $153,900 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $153,900 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $153,900 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $153,900 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $153,900 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $153,900 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $153,900 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $153,900 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $153,900 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $153,900 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $153,900 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-26
    listed $153,900 Active
18. 2025-12-31
    historical
19. 2025-11-07
    price $179,000
20. 2025-10-15
    listed $183,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,104 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,816 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: +$712/yr (+$59/mo · 33.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,665
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,621
• − Property taxes: −$2,104
• − Insurance: −$770
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,573
• − Management: −$1,573
• − Depreciation: −$4,477
• Taxable income: $547
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$131
• After-tax cash flow: $2,846/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate renovations, focusing on landscaping and exterior painting to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Landscaping — Overgrown grass and shrubs need trimming
• Minor Exterior lighting — Light fixture appears old and may need replacement

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Aesthetic improvements can enhance curb appeal and property value
• Both Exterior painting — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · Overgrown grass and shrubs need trimming	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior lighting · Light fixture appears old and may need replacement	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Aesthetic improvements can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Exterior painting — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gun Barrel City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #519
• US rank: #10212

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gun Barrel City, TX
• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $153,900 FSBO.com
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $179,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-15 Listed $183,999 NTREIS

Property tax history

+17.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,104 · +17.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.