8024 Hickman Farm Rd · Wattsville, VA 23337

$188,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,309 sqft · SingleFamily · 46 Days on market

Built 2003 9,308 sqft lot $144/sqft · 18% below area Est $230k · 18% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming ranch-style manufactured home sits on 2/3 acre in a peaceful country setting, featuring three bedrooms and two bathrooms. The spacious living room with LVP flooring and vaulted ceiling flows into a dining area ideal for gatherings. The kitchen offers oak cabinetry, a breakfast bar, and a pantry. The primary bedroom has a private bathroom, while two additional bedrooms provide versatile space. A full bathroom, laundry/mudroom, and a storage shed add convenience. Located near NASA Base and Chincoteague Island, it blends tranquility with easy access to local attractions.

Key facts

• 9,308 sq ft lot
• Built 2003
• Listed 45 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Well water; Septic (sized to number of bedrooms); Electric power
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Estimated year built; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composite roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Shed on the property; No basement; Above- and below-grade structures noted

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with pantry and combined kitchen/dining layout
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level (one is an entry-level bedroom)
• Flooring: Vinyl; Luxury vinyl plank; Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating and cooling (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: Tub shower and separate stall shower; Ceiling fans; Combination kitchen and dining area; Dining area; Pantry; Master bath; Paneled walls; Vaulted ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Main-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $188k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-357 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (27.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (36.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (36.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#520 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Accomack County Public School District (rural): math 44% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #99 of 131 in VA (top 76%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 181 units permitted in Accomack County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Accomack County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,308 (36.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.13%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,000
• List price: $188,000
• Delta: -18.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33371 Holly Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,306 (-0%)	6mo	$245,000	$188	69
32533 Chincoteague Rd	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,209 (-8%)	9mo	$155,000	$128	47
32533 Chincoteague	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,209 (-8%)	9mo	$155,000	$128	47
33270 Chincoteague Rd	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (+15%)	21mo	$295,000	$197	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-53
• Equity at exit: $84,533

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $31,705
• Equity at exit: $130,275

Cash invested: $52,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23337

• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,193 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$986
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$235 /mo · $2,820/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $-357

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,645

Max offer price $136,386

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-227	-5% $-292	+0% $-357	+5% $-422	+10% $-487
Rent	-10% $-451	-5% $-404	+0% $-357	+5% $-310	+10% $-262
Rate	-1.0pp $-262	-0.5pp $-309	base $-357	+0.5pp $-405	+1.0pp $-455

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,000
• Closing costs: $5,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $188,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $188,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $188,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $188,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $205,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-05-16
    price $215,000 1814-char remark
14. 2026-05-16
    price $215,000 1776-char remark
15. 2026-04-30
    listed $230,000 Active 1814-char remark
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $230,000 Active 1776-char remark
17. 2025-04-09
    soldstatus $195,000
18. 2025-04-08
    soldstatus $195,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    This charming ranch-style manufactured home sits on 2/3 acre in a peaceful country setting, featuring three bedrooms and two bathrooms. The spacious living room with LVP flooring and vaulted ceiling flows into a dining area ideal for gatherings. The kitchen offers oak cabinetry, a breakfast bar, and a pantry. The primary bedroom has a private bathroom, while two additional bedrooms provide versatile space. A full bathroom, laundry/mudroom, and a storage shed add convenience. Located near NASA Base and Chincoteague Island, it blends tranquility with easy access to local attractions.

19. 2025-01-23
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    This charming ranch-style manufactured home sits on 2/3 acre in a peaceful country setting, featuring three bedrooms and two bathrooms. The spacious living room with LVP flooring and vaulted ceiling flows into a dining area ideal for gatherings. The kitchen offers oak cabinetry, a breakfast bar, and a pantry. The primary bedroom has a private bathroom, while two additional bedrooms provide versatile space. A full bathroom, laundry/mudroom, and a storage shed add convenience. Located near NASA Base and Chincoteague Island, it blends tranquility with easy access to local attractions.

20. 2025-01-18
    listed $205,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    This charming ranch-style manufactured home sits on 2/3 acre in a peaceful country setting, featuring three bedrooms and two bathrooms. The spacious living room with LVP flooring and vaulted ceiling flows into a dining area ideal for gatherings. The kitchen offers oak cabinetry, a breakfast bar, and a pantry. The primary bedroom has a private bathroom, while two additional bedrooms provide versatile space. A full bathroom, laundry/mudroom, and a storage shed add convenience. Located near NASA Base and Chincoteague Island, it blends tranquility with easy access to local attractions.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,317
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,531
• − Property taxes: −$2,820
• − Insurance: −$940
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,145
• − Management: −$1,145
• − Depreciation: −$5,469
• Taxable loss: −$7,734
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,856
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,424/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Accomack County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100060
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,348
• Composite: 43.05/100
• National rank: #3096
• State rank: #99 of 131 in VA

Livability — Wattsville

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #520
• US rank: #23790

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wattsville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 582

Population outlook (Accomack County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,072 people
• By 2030: 31,425 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 29,685 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 27,748 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 23,396 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 18,774 · -41.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 27% Black 16% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 23%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Korean 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Accomack

• 2024 margin: R (+13.3) · D 43.0% · R 56.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -1.4pp · 2024: -13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.3 2020: R+9.4 2016: R+11.7 2012: R+3.5 2008: R+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $188,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $188,000 ESAR
• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $205,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $205,000 ESAR
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $215,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $215,000 ESAR
• 2026-04-30 Listed $230,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $230,000 ESAR
• 2025-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2025-04-08 Sold (MLS) $195,000 ESAR
• 2025-01-23 Pending — ESAR
• 2025-01-18 Listed $205,000 ESAR

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $187 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.