9121 Barnacle Blvd · Gulf Park Estates, MS 39564

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,349 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1974 0.26 ac lot Est $202k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

COMPLETELY RENOVATED GIVING IT A NEW HOME FEEL. Absolutely immaculate with attention to every detail with designer Sherwin Williams color palate inside and out, new flooring, beautiful new lighting, granite counters, architectural shingled roof, and meticulous landscape gives this beautiful home an upscale feel. Massive screened rear porch provides additional living space overlooking the in-ground saltwater pool. Beautiful trees, privacy fenced yard and storage shed add to its beauty and function. Call today before it's gone.

Key facts

• Saltwater pool
• Single-car garage
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• SALTWATER POOL
• SCREENED-IN COVERED PATIO
• SINGLE-CAR GARAGE
• DETACHED STORAGE BUILDING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Boating community feature

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; Driveway with concrete surface
• Utilities: Public sewer; Community water; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family house; One story; Appraiser-provided living area
• Construction: Brick veneer and wood siding construction; Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built according to public records
• Exterior features: Private yard; Screened porch; Storage structure; Back yard privacy fencing; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Oven; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Entrance foyer; Granite counters; Pantry; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $221 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 5.2% in Gulf Park Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#43 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Ocean Springs School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #1 of 130 in MS (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Park Elementary (math 62% / reading 52%, grade C+, #37 of 375 statewide, top 10%, 635 students, 100% FRL); Ocean Springs Middle School (math 66% / reading 61%, grade B+, #3 of 179 statewide, top 2%, 967 students, 100% FRL); Ocean Springs High School (math 77% / reading 64%, grade B+, #1 of 197 statewide, top 0%, 1,899 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 33% district-wide (67 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,559 (8.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.51%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $202,350
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1711 S 1st St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+4%)	1mo	$187,000	$133	82
2000 Deer St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,336 (-1%)	2mo	$210,000	$157	78
1605 S 2nd St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,448 (+7%)	3mo	$219,000	$151	78
9117 Meadowlark Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+9%)	3mo	$217,900	$148	76
9217 Seahorse Ave	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+11%)	3mo	$239,000	$159	74
1501 S 7th St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,413 (+5%)	6mo	$219,990	$156	71
9116 Warbler Ave	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,483 (+10%)	10mo	$120,000	$81	71
8701 Barnacle Blvd	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,410 (+4%)	2mo	$174,999	$124	63
1820 S 2nd St	0.23mi	3/3.0	1,548 (+15%)	1mo	$279,000	$180	60
9021 W Simmons Cir	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,492 (+11%)	1mo	$224,000	$150	56
1517 S 10th St	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,250 (-7%)	8mo	$169,900	$136	53
1529 S 10th St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,509 (+12%)	6mo	$199,500	$132	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-23,225
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-15,116
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39564

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,926 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,646

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9200 Pointe Aux Chenes Rd Unit 1365709P Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1420	$5,979	$4.21	14d	1	0.24mi
1508 Beachview Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,650	$1.16	14d	1	0.28mi
1517 Porpoise Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1494	$2,250	$1.51	14d	1	0.43mi
8712 W Simmons Bayou Dr Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,900	$1.73	44d	1	0.72mi
2421 Beachview Dr Unit F16 Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	2.0	875	$2,200	$2.51	21d	1	0.82mi
2421 Beachview Dr Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	2.0	875	$2,000	$2.29	21d	1	0.82mi
2421 Beachview Dr Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	2.0	874	$2,150	$2.46	44d	2	0.84mi
8700 Spring Ave Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1087	$1,050	$0.97	21d	1	1.18mi
8700 Spring Ave Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1087	$1,050	$0.97	44d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $210,000 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $210,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $210,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    price $210,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $218,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $218,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 517-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    listed $218,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,335 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,659 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$324/yr (+$27/mo · 24.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,107
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,849
• − Management: −$1,849
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$848
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$203
• After-tax cash flow: $2,858/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ocean Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 2803360
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,485
• Composite: 53.35/100
• National rank: #1477
• State rank: #1 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulf Park Estates

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #7955

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulf Park Estates, MS
• County: Jackson County · 82,196 people
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 43,240
• Household income: $78,596
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 734.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.77%
• Current HPI: 204.2244
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.31%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+55.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $218,000 MLSU
• 2021-10-01 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2018-05-15 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2018-02-08 Listed $167,500 MLSU
• 2017-11-04 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2017-11-04 Listed $87,200 MLSU
• 2013-05-11 Listed $117,000 MLSU
• 2012-07-09 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2012-05-24 Listed $139,900 MLSU

Property tax history

+22.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,335 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.