Walsh Plan · Katy, TX 77493

$326,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,900 sqft · SingleFamily · 173 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is at the back of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet, while three secondary bedrooms are near the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open layout
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• COVERED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $326,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $425,432.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $327k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (14.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (25.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Katy El (math 63% / reading 61%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 682 students, 26% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2729 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($288k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,432 (25.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.16%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 14.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $425,432
• List price: $326,990
• Delta: -23.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2407 Elmwood Trl	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,043 (+8%)	15mo	$405,000	$198	61
2519 Elmwood Trl	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,984 (+4%)	14mo	$390,000	$197	60
6431 Wolf Run Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,831 (-4%)	10mo	$369,000	$202	59
1101 Fern St	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,941 (+2%)	7mo	$590,000	$304	55
6926 Myrtle Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,033 (+7%)	4mo	$422,495	$208	46
2431 Mount Healy Ct	0.72mi	4/3.0	1,942 (+2%)	24mo	$439,900	$227	39
6526 Mert St	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,153 (+13%)	11mo	$435,000	$202	38
2411 Mount Healy Ct	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,127 (+12%)	23mo	$469,900	$221	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -37.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-140,332
• Equity at exit: $63,433

10-year hold

• IRR: -78.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.95×
• Total profit: $-232,487
• Equity at exit: $36,784

Cash invested: $119,121 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2729
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,444 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,231
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$532 /mo · $6,381/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $-1,009

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,722

Max offer price $279,421

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-715	-5% $-862	+0% $-1,009	+5% $-1,156	+10% $-1,303
Rent	-10% $-1,202	-5% $-1,106	+0% $-1,009	+5% $-913	+10% $-816
Rate	-1.0pp $-795	-0.5pp $-901	base $-1,009	+0.5pp $-1,119	+1.0pp $-1,231

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,358
• Closing costs: $12,763
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $326,990 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $326,990 Active 170 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $326,990 Active 169 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $357,990 Active 168 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $357,990 Active 167 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $357,990 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $357,990 Active 160 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $357,990 Active 159 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $357,990 Active 156 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $357,990 Active 155 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $357,990 Active 154 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $357,990 Active 153 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $357,990 Active 152 DOM
14. 2025-12-30
    listed $357,990 Active 407-char remark

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is at the back of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet, while three secondary bedrooms are near the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,332
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,831
• − Property taxes: −$6,381
• − Insurance: −$2,127
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,347
• − Management: −$2,347
• − Depreciation: −$12,376
• Taxable loss: −$20,077
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,818
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,290/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Katy, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-30 Listed $357,990 Zillow