16711 Marsh Creek Rd #70 · Antioch, CA 94517

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 304 Days on market

Built 1967 Est $226k · 25% under ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your new Home! This charming and well-maintained mobile home offers comfort, convenience, and affordability in a peaceful setting on a corner lot. Step inside to find a bright open floor plan with spacious living areas, a kitchen with plenty of cabinet space and stainless steel appliances, good size bedrooms and upgraded floors throughout. Enjoy outdoor living with a covered patio—perfect for morning coffee. The home also features in-unit laundry, a carport for parking, and a low-maintenance yard with a storage shed. . Located in a friendly community that includes a pool, game room, laundry facility, covered playground, dog park, gym and clubhouse with kitchen. Just minutes

Key facts

• Low-maintenance yard
• In-unit laundry
• Carport

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• COVERED PATIO
• IN-UNIT LAUNDRY
• CARPORT
• LOW-MAINTENANCE YARD
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed; Community clubhouse; Community greenbelt; Community fitness center; Community pool; Community laundry

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Covered parking (2 spaces); Carport; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in-park home; Double wide mobile home
• Construction: Wood siding
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Side yard; Shed(s); Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range / cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator; Pantry; Skylight
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (both full)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Pantry; Dining area; Family room; Storage; Skylights
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 3.9% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#782 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Brentwood Union Elementary (suburban): math 51% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #268 of 1,400 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 304 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $148,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 304 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.79%
• DSCR: 2.59
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $225,600
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #54	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-1%)	16mo	$240,000	$202	81
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #126	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+8%)	10mo	$182,000	$140	75
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #135	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+4%)	20mo	$221,000	$177	73
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #63	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+8%)	14mo	$245,000	$188	71
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #66	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+13%)	10mo	$255,000	$189	68
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #79	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-11%)	12mo	$220,000	$207	68
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #97	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,098 (-8%)	21mo	$199,800	$182	66
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #88	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+14%)	14mo	$185,000	$135	62
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #179	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-13%)	18mo	$219,000	$211	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $62,549
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.60×
• Total profit: $170,408
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94517

• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,265 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$211 /mo · $2,535/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$686
• Net cashflow: $1,411

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,478

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,528	-5% $1,470	+0% $1,411	+5% $1,353	+10% $1,294
Rent	-10% $1,153	-5% $1,282	+0% $1,411	+5% $1,540	+10% $1,669
Rate	-1.0pp $1,496	-0.5pp $1,454	base $1,411	+0.5pp $1,367	+1.0pp $1,323

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,000 Active 304 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 301 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 300 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 299 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 298 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 296 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 295 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 292 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 291 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,000 Active 290 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,000 Active 287 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 286 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 285 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 284 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 283 DOM
16. 2026-04-18
    price $169,000
17. 2026-01-11
    price $194,750
18. 2025-10-06
    price $205,000
19. 2025-08-21
    listed $214,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,178
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$2,535
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,134
• − Management: −$3,134
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $15,146
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,635
• After-tax cash flow: $13,300/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brentwood Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0605910
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $91,644
• Composite: 52.7/100
• National rank: #3320
• State rank: #268 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Antioch

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #782
• US rank: #22472

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 116,477
• Population (ZIP): 12,164

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 13% Asian 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -693.84%
• Current HPI: 144.7139
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-21.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $169,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $194,750 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $205,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-08-21 Listed $214,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR