4631 Lyndi Ln · Pecan Plantation, TX 76049

$209,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 195 Days on market

Built 1996 0.34 ac lot $125/sqft · 5% below area Est $222k · 5% under $9/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully Remodeled 4-Bedroom Home Just a Short Walk to the Lake. Welcome to 4631 Lyndi—an updated and move-in-ready 4-bedroom, 2-bath home tucked inside a quiet, peaceful community just minutes from the lake. Situated on a treed lot over a quarter-acre, this property offers both charm and convenience with fresh interior and exterior paint and thoughtful upgrades throughout. Step inside to a spacious kitchen featuring abundant cabinet space. A separate laundry room with additional cabinetry adds even more functionality. The primary bedroom offers excellent storage with two closets, along with an updated ensuite bath. Secondary bedrooms are well-sized and share a remodeled hall bathroom. Enjoy the natural setting and shade from mature trees, plus the added privacy of a larger lot—perfect for outdoor relaxing, gardening, or future additions. This freshly remodeled home combines comfort, convenience, and a serene setting near the water. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a beautifully updated home just a short walk from the lake!

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Natural setting
• Updated ensuite bath

Tags

• SHORT WALK TO THE LAKE
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM
• UPDATED ENSUITE BATH
• REMODELED HALL BATHROOM
• NATURAL SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $463 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 2.3% in Pecan Plantation — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#362 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 703 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.45%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,770
• List price: $209,900
• Delta: -5.35%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4987 Blue Water Cir	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,624 (-3%)	2mo	$84,444	$52	82
6601 Oakwood Lake Ct	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,624 (-3%)	3mo	$100,000	$62	76
4939 Blue Water Cir	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,728 (+3%)	22mo	$225,000	$130	74
6512 Ashley Ct	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (+7%)	15mo	$375,000	$209	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $512
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $60,123
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76049

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 703
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,258 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,488/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$9
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $463

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,672

Max offer price $209,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $581	-5% $522	+0% $463	+5% $403	+10% $344
Rent	-10% $284	-5% $373	+0% $463	+5% $552	+10% $641
Rate	-1.0pp $568	-0.5pp $516	base $463	+0.5pp $408	+1.0pp $353

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6505 Christa Ct Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1368	$2,700	$1.97	45d	1	0.32mi
3802 Juniper Ct Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,900	$1.12	45d	1	0.99mi
3712 Mandy Dr Unit 1 Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	1112	$1,300	$1.17	20d	1	1.04mi
3712 Mandy Dr Unit 2 Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	1158	$1,300	$1.12	23d	1	1.04mi
3705 Mandy Dr #2 Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	1158	$1,400	$1.21	25d	1	1.09mi
150 Bluebonnet Way Granbury, TX	4.0	2.5	2203	$2,095	$0.95	6d	1	1.39mi
350 Azalea Trl Granbury, TX	4.0	2.0	1510	$2,000	$1.32	45d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $9 · $108/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $209,900 Active 195 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 192 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $209,900 Active 191 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 190 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 189 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 187 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Active 183 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,900 Active 182 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,900 Active 181 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $219,900 Active 178 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,900 Active 177 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,900 Active 176 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,900 Active 175 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 174 DOM
15. 2026-03-11
    status Active 1062-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1062 chars)

    Beautifully Remodeled 4-Bedroom Home Just a Short Walk to the Lake. Welcome to 4631 Lyndi—an updated and move-in-ready 4-bedroom, 2-bath home tucked inside a quiet, peaceful community just minutes from the lake. Situated on a treed lot over a quarter-acre, this property offers both charm and convenience with fresh interior and exterior paint and thoughtful upgrades throughout. Step inside to a spacious kitchen featuring abundant cabinet space. A separate laundry room with additional cabinetry adds even more functionality. The primary bedroom offers excellent storage with two closets, along with an updated ensuite bath. Secondary bedrooms are well-sized and share a remodeled hall bathroom. Enjoy the natural setting and shade from mature trees, plus the added privacy of a larger lot—perfect for outdoor relaxing, gardening, or future additions. This freshly remodeled home combines comfort, convenience, and a serene setting near the water. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a beautifully updated home just a short walk from the lake!

16. 2026-03-10
    historical Active Option Contract 1062-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1062 chars)

    Beautifully Remodeled 4-Bedroom Home Just a Short Walk to the Lake. Welcome to 4631 Lyndi—an updated and move-in-ready 4-bedroom, 2-bath home tucked inside a quiet, peaceful community just minutes from the lake. Situated on a treed lot over a quarter-acre, this property offers both charm and convenience with fresh interior and exterior paint and thoughtful upgrades throughout. Step inside to a spacious kitchen featuring abundant cabinet space. A separate laundry room with additional cabinetry adds even more functionality. The primary bedroom offers excellent storage with two closets, along with an updated ensuite bath. Secondary bedrooms are well-sized and share a remodeled hall bathroom. Enjoy the natural setting and shade from mature trees, plus the added privacy of a larger lot—perfect for outdoor relaxing, gardening, or future additions. This freshly remodeled home combines comfort, convenience, and a serene setting near the water. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a beautifully updated home just a short walk from the lake!

17. 2026-01-09
    price $219,900 1062-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1062 chars)

    Beautifully Remodeled 4-Bedroom Home Just a Short Walk to the Lake. Welcome to 4631 Lyndi—an updated and move-in-ready 4-bedroom, 2-bath home tucked inside a quiet, peaceful community just minutes from the lake. Situated on a treed lot over a quarter-acre, this property offers both charm and convenience with fresh interior and exterior paint and thoughtful upgrades throughout. Step inside to a spacious kitchen featuring abundant cabinet space. A separate laundry room with additional cabinetry adds even more functionality. The primary bedroom offers excellent storage with two closets, along with an updated ensuite bath. Secondary bedrooms are well-sized and share a remodeled hall bathroom. Enjoy the natural setting and shade from mature trees, plus the added privacy of a larger lot—perfect for outdoor relaxing, gardening, or future additions. This freshly remodeled home combines comfort, convenience, and a serene setting near the water. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a beautifully updated home just a short walk from the lake!

18. 2025-12-08
    listed $229,900 Active 1062-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1062 chars)

    Beautifully Remodeled 4-Bedroom Home Just a Short Walk to the Lake. Welcome to 4631 Lyndi—an updated and move-in-ready 4-bedroom, 2-bath home tucked inside a quiet, peaceful community just minutes from the lake. Situated on a treed lot over a quarter-acre, this property offers both charm and convenience with fresh interior and exterior paint and thoughtful upgrades throughout. Step inside to a spacious kitchen featuring abundant cabinet space. A separate laundry room with additional cabinetry adds even more functionality. The primary bedroom offers excellent storage with two closets, along with an updated ensuite bath. Secondary bedrooms are well-sized and share a remodeled hall bathroom. Enjoy the natural setting and shade from mature trees, plus the added privacy of a larger lot—perfect for outdoor relaxing, gardening, or future additions. This freshly remodeled home combines comfort, convenience, and a serene setting near the water. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a beautifully updated home just a short walk from the lake!

19. 2025-08-15
    historical
20. 2025-07-11
    price $149,900
21. 2025-06-25
    price $162,500
22. 2025-05-09
    price $174,900
23. 2025-05-01
    price $177,900
24. 2025-04-24
    price $181,500
25. 2025-04-17
    price $183,000
26. 2025-04-11
    price $183,900
27. 2025-03-14
    listed $184,900 Active
28. 2024-12-12
    historical
29. 2024-10-17
    listed $198,230 Active
30. 2024-08-20
    soldstatus
31. 2003-03-24
    soldstatus
32. 2003-03-23
    soldstatus
33. 2003-01-26
    historical
34. 2003-01-17
    listed $49,900
35. 1997-02-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,488 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,841 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,353/yr (+$196/mo · 158.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,095
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$1,488
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,168
• − Management: −$2,168
• − HOA: −$108
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable income: $2,251
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$540
• After-tax cash flow: $5,011/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pecan Plantation

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #362
• US rank: #7773

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,506
• Household income: $104,967
• Rent vs Own: 12.3% rent · 87.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.09%
• Current HPI: 273.1293
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.20%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+340.7% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-03-10 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $219,900 NTREIS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $229,900 NTREIS
• 2025-08-15 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $149,900 NTREIS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $162,500 NTREIS
• 2025-05-09 Price Changed $174,900 NTREIS
• 2025-05-01 Price Changed $177,900 NTREIS
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $181,500 NTREIS
• 2025-04-17 Price Changed $183,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-11 Price Changed $183,900 NTREIS
• 2025-03-14 Listed $184,900 NTREIS
• 2024-12-12 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-10-17 Listed $198,230 NTREIS
• 2024-08-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-03-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-03-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-01-26 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2003-01-17 Listed $49,900 NTREIS
• 1997-02-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,488 · +81.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.