2204 Jesse James Ln · Burleson, TX 76058

$253,499

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $144/sqft · 24% below area Est $335k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $253k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $182 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (3.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (3.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.5% in Burleson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Joshua ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #139 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: H D Staples El (math 44% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 435 students, 65% FRL); R C Loflin Middle (math 41% / reading 45%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 730 students, 55% FRL); Joshua H S (math 67% / reading 15%, grade F, #774 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 1,242 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 503 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 35d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,750 (3.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.07%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $334,579
• List price: $253,499
• Delta: -24.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2205 Doc Holiday Rd	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,720 (-2%)	2mo	$250,999	$146	87
2201 Doc Holiday Rd	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,720 (-2%)	2mo	$256,999	$149	87
2148 Jesse James Ln	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,656 (-6%)	3mo	$240,999	$146	80
5828 Thousand Oaks Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,800 (+2%)	6mo	$349,900	$194	65
1160 Indigo Ln	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,818 (+3%)	12mo	$350,000	$193	63
1620 Glade Meadows Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,841 (+5%)	2mo	$365,000	$198	60
2109 Timber Top Trl	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,680 (-4%)	0mo	$220,000	$131	57
5824 Thousand Oaks Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,580 (-10%)	5mo	$269,900	$171	52
6520 Boot Jack Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,918 (+9%)	4mo	$355,000	$185	52
6400 Azur Meadows Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,885 (+7%)	21mo	$330,000	$175	47
1148 Blue Sky Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,893 (+8%)	12mo	$359,000	$190	47
1400 Grassy Meadows Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (+8%)	16mo	$365,000	$192	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-29,471
• Equity at exit: $37,798

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-10,616
• Equity at exit: $21,918

Cash invested: $70,980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 18 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.3 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $253,499 ($160/sqft)
• Median days on market: 10 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +19.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76058

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Active inventory: 503
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,448 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,329
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$317 /mo · $3,802/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,218

Max offer price $253,499

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $357	-5% $269	+0% $182	+5% $94	+10% $6
Rent	-10% $-12	-5% $85	+0% $182	+5% $278	+10% $375
Rate	-1.0pp $309	-0.5pp $246	base $182	+0.5pp $116	+1.0pp $49

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,375
• Closing costs: $7,605
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1620 Glade Meadows Dr Joshua, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$2,375	$1.33	0d	1	0.55mi
1612 Caddo Peak Trl Joshua, TX	3.0	3.0	1504	$2,650	$1.76	59d	1	1.10mi
133 Constitution Dr Joshua, TX	3.0	2.0	2121	$2,179	$1.03	9d	1	1.32mi
109 Independence Dr Joshua, TX	4.0	2.0	2116	$2,681	$1.27	34d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $253,499 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $253,499 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   pricedays on market $253,499 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $254,499 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $254,499 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,370
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,200
• − Property taxes: −$3,802
• − Insurance: −$1,267
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,350
• − Management: −$2,350
• − Depreciation: −$7,375
• Taxable loss: −$1,974
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$474
• After-tax cash flow: $2,653/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-level home is in excellent condition with a spacious open floorplan and modern finishes. It is move-in ready and has the potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase property value ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and can increase property value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary H D Staples El F TX #1,462/4,322 Nat'l #19,009/41,679 Middle R C Loflin Middle D- TX #540/1,662 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High Joshua H S F TX #774/1,632 Nat'l #7,961/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Joshua ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824930
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,696
• Composite: 44.65/100
• National rank: #2769
• State rank: #139 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 79/100

Livability — Burleson

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #2133

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burleson, TX
• County: Johnson · 179,678 people
• City population: 81,549
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,531
• Household income: $66,719
• Rent vs Own: 26.8% rent · 73.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.22%
• Current HPI: 265.6513
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B