5374 Trailview Dr · Black Jack, MO 63033

$255,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,762 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1973 10,136 sqft lot Est $204k · 25% over $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious ranch style home with level lot and two car attached garage. Inside there are four bedrooms and two full baths. There are vaulted ceilings and a main floor family room with fireplace. The basement is partially finished. This home is convenient to highways and hospitals. This property is approved for a HomePath Mortgage Financing and a HomePath Renovation Mortgage Financing. Purchase this property for as little as 5% down. ________________________________________

Key facts

• Black appliances
• Open floor plan
• Private backyard

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• BLACK APPLIANCES
• DURABLE COUNTERTOPS
• HUGE LAUNDRY ROOM
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• PROXIMITY TO LOCAL SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Trailwoods Homeowners Association LLC; Annual association fee of $150 (includes other amenities)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (total 2 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (electric service listed as other); Natural gas available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; House structure
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction; Composition/shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built according to public records
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Level lot; Road frontage on a city street (asphalt/paved)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms, all on the main level (sizes include 12x14, 10x10, 10x10, 10x10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Concrete; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: High ceilings; Open floorplan; Smart thermostat; Vaulted ceilings; Decorative fireplace in family room
• Laundry & utility: Smart thermostat (climate control features noted)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $97 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jamestown Elem. (math 2% / reading 37%, grade F, #935 of 1,115 statewide, top 84%, 333 students, 66% FRL); Hazelwood Central High (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #455 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 1,628 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $71k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,004 (9.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.63%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $204,392
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12050 Maidstone Ct	0.20mi	4/2.5	1,794 (+2%)	2mo	$200,000	$111	84
5325 Springtrail Dr	0.22mi	4/3.0	1,831 (+4%)	2mo	$250,000	$137	82
5348 Trailoaks Dr	0.08mi	4/3.0	1,925 (+9%)	3mo	$214,000	$111	78
5349 Trailoaks Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,625 (-8%)	3mo	$229,000	$141	76
5227 Suntrail Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (-2%)	2mo	$200,000	$116	70
12550 Evening Shade Dr	0.35mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,664 (-6%)	1mo	$250,000	$150	69
5172 Trailbend Dr	0.33mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,855 (+5%)	4mo	$170,000	$92	68
1 Welwyn Ct	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,848 (+5%)	3mo	$200,000	$108	66
12455 Jerries Ln	0.32mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,638 (-7%)	4mo	$244,900	$150	63
11754 El Somo Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,860 (+6%)	1mo	$215,000	$116	48
6268 Lake Paddock Dr	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,923 (+9%)	1mo	$159,900	$83	44
12922 High Crest St	0.75mi	4/3.5	1,566 (-11%)	2mo	$320,000	$204	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $156,032
• Equity at exit: $229,724

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.74×
• Total profit: $481,292
• Equity at exit: $495,409

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,310 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$271 /mo · $3,257/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,187

Max offer price $255,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $241	-5% $169	+0% $97	+5% $25	+10% $-47
Rent	-10% $-85	-5% $6	+0% $97	+5% $188	+10% $280
Rate	-1.0pp $225	-0.5pp $162	base $97	+0.5pp $31	+1.0pp $-36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5364 Trailview Dr Black Jack, MO	4.0	3.0	1992	$2,330	$1.17	22d	1	0.01mi
5320 Springtrail Dr Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.5	1712	$2,390	$1.40	22d	1	0.21mi
4872 Bristol Rock Rd Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,061	$1.42	2d	1	1.01mi
4440 Parker Rd Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1900	$1,711	$0.90	2d	1	1.10mi
4583 Whisper Lake Dr Black Jack, MO	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1225	$1,354	$1.10	2d	17	1.10mi
12303 Benham Rd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1845	$1,771	$0.96	18d	1	1.35mi
1911 Redman Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1454	$1,495	$1.03	2d	1	1.37mi
12810 Verwood Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,026	$1.44	44d	1	1.38mi
2544 Netherton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,945	$1.51	2d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-08
   listed $255,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,257 · $271/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,257 · $271/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,720
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$3,257
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,218
• − Management: −$2,218
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$3,105
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$745
• After-tax cash flow: $1,910/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Black Jack

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #7706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Black Jack, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 69,104
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+240.5% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $255,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-16 Rental Removed $1,860 RENTLY
• 2025-03-14 Rental Removed $1,860 RENT.
• 2025-02-27 Listed for Rent $1,860 RENTLY
• 2025-02-26 Listed for Rent $1,860 RENT.
• 2025-02-11 Rental Removed $1,860 RENTLY
• 2025-02-09 Rental Removed $1,860 RENT.
• 2025-02-07 Price Changed $1,860 RENTLY
• 2025-02-06 Price Changed $1,860 RENT.
• 2025-01-31 Price Changed $1,915 RENTLY
• 2025-01-30 Price Changed $1,915 RENT.
• 2025-01-23 Listed for Rent $1,955 RENTLY
• 2025-01-23 Listed for Rent $1,955 RENT.
• 2025-01-14 Rental Removed $1,955 RENTLY
• 2025-01-12 Rental Removed $1,955 RENT.
• 2025-01-11 Price Changed $1,955 RENTLY
• 2025-01-10 Price Changed $1,955 RENT.
• 2025-01-04 Price Changed $2,045 RENTLY
• 2025-01-03 Price Changed $2,045 RENT.
• 2024-12-18 Listed for Rent $2,170 RENTLY
• 2024-12-18 Listed for Rent $2,170 RENT.
• 2015-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $19,500,437 Public Records
• 2014-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $66,500 Public Records
• 2014-01-24 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-08-29 Listed $74,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $3,257 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.