123 Fredonia Church Rd · Barnesville, GA 30204

$285,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,548 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1974 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom 1.5 bath home located on 1 acre. Home is as is. Appraisal in hand.

Key facts

• Full acre
• Spacious new deck
• New mechanicals

Tags

• REMODELED BRICK RANCH
• FULL ACRE
• NEW MECHANICALS
• NEW ROOF
• SPACIOUS NEW DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer; Electricity available; Cable available; High-speed internet; Green/energy-efficient appliances, roof, and water heater
• Home design: Single-family house; One story; Resale property
• Construction: Built in 1974; Brick exterior; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Brick construction; Window treatments; Level lot (1 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Double vanity; Separate shower; Soaking tub; Walk-in closets; Dining room and living room combined; Family room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $638 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $285k).
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.2% in Barnesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#59 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar County (town): math 21% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #132 of 174 in GA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 129 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lamar County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $285k implies a 217% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $285,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.60%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $89,784
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
123 Fredonia Church Rd	0.00mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,548 (0%)	17mo	$90,000	$58	81

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-5,617
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $47,062
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30204

• Home prices YoY: -9.7%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,418/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $638

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,192

Max offer price $285,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
415 Walton Rd Barnesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1618	$3,000	$1.85	13d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $285,000 Under Contract 12 DOM
2. 2026-05-18
   listed $285,000 New
3. 2026-03-12
   historical
4. 2026-02-27
   price $287,000
5. 2026-02-09
   price $297,000
6. 2026-01-29
   price $298,000
7. 2026-01-01
   listed $315,000 New
8. 2025-12-26
   historical
9. 2025-02-03
   soldstatus $90,000
10. 2025-01-29
    soldstatus $90,000 Sold 79-char remark

    Show marketing remark (79 chars)

    3 bedroom 1.5 bath home located on 1 acre. Home is as is. Appraisal in hand.

11. 2025-01-26
    status Under Contract 79-char remark

    Show marketing remark (79 chars)

    3 bedroom 1.5 bath home located on 1 acre. Home is as is. Appraisal in hand.

12. 2024-12-11
    status Back On Market 79-char remark

    Show marketing remark (79 chars)

    3 bedroom 1.5 bath home located on 1 acre. Home is as is. Appraisal in hand.

13. 2024-10-30
    status Under Contract 79-char remark

    Show marketing remark (79 chars)

    3 bedroom 1.5 bath home located on 1 acre. Home is as is. Appraisal in hand.

14. 2024-10-01
    price $100,000 79-char remark

    Show marketing remark (79 chars)

    3 bedroom 1.5 bath home located on 1 acre. Home is as is. Appraisal in hand.

15. 2024-08-12
    status Back On Market 79-char remark

    Show marketing remark (79 chars)

    3 bedroom 1.5 bath home located on 1 acre. Home is as is. Appraisal in hand.

16. 2024-07-10
    status Pending Offer Approval 79-char remark

    Show marketing remark (79 chars)

    3 bedroom 1.5 bath home located on 1 acre. Home is as is. Appraisal in hand.

17. 2024-07-01
    listed $120,000 New 79-char remark

    Show marketing remark (79 chars)

    3 bedroom 1.5 bath home located on 1 acre. Home is as is. Appraisal in hand.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,418 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,622 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,204/yr (+$100/mo · 84.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 50% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$1,418
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,880
• − Management: −$2,880
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable income: $3,141
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$754
• After-tax cash flow: $6,908/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar County
• NCES district ID: 1303210
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,643
• Composite: 20.22/100
• National rank: #8628
• State rank: #132 of 174 in GA

Livability — Barnesville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #5584

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 13,425
• Population (ZIP): 13,425

Population outlook (Lamar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,679 people
• By 2030: 18,508 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 18,110 · -3.0%
• By 2050: 17,518 · -6.2%
• By 2075: 16,318 · -12.6%
• By 2100: 14,176 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 37% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lamar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -27.6pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+38.5 2012: R+30.2 2008: R+27.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.00%
• Current HPI: 279.3141
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+137.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $285,000 GAMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $287,000 GAMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $297,000 GAMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $298,000 GAMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed $315,000 GAMLS
• 2025-12-26 Coming Soon — GAMLS
• 2025-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2025-01-29 Sold (MLS) $90,000 GAMLS
• 2025-01-26 Pending — GAMLS
• 2024-12-11 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2024-10-30 Pending — GAMLS
• 2024-10-01 Price Changed $100,000 GAMLS
• 2024-08-12 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2024-07-10 Pending — GAMLS
• 2024-07-01 Listed $120,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,418 · +13.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.