6165 Pony Express Trl #37 · Pollock Pines, CA 95726

$98,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1980 Est $96k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Senior living at it's finest. Bright open property has wraparound decking for outside living. Wake up to a gorgeous view of the forest. Have coffee every morning with nature. Great for a VACATION retreat or year round living. Welcome home.

Key facts

• Gorgeous view
• Wraparound decking
• Built 1980

Tags

• WRAPAROUND DECKING
• GORGEOUS VIEW

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Land lease: no
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Cable available; Internet available; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; 220V in kitchen; Septic system; Public water via water district
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Double-wide; Built in 1980; Located in a senior community
• Construction: Wood skirting; Guerdon manufactured home
• Exterior features: Shingle/composition roof; Private, landscaped lot; Located on a cul-de-sac and secluded setting; Storage shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing refrigerator; Hood over range; Ice maker; Dishwasher; Free-standing electric oven; Breakfast area; Pantry cabinet; Ceramic countertops; Skylight in kitchen; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Bathtub and tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Pellet stove heating; Other cooling
• Interior features: Cathedral/vaulted living area with skylights; Attached deck off living area; Great room; Covered deck and porch; Dual-pane partial windows; Pets allowed
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room; 220V in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $808 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.1% vs local median 3.8% in Pollock Pines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#864 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-; Watch: schools D, crime D, amenities F.
• Pollock Pines Elementary (town): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #277 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 437 units permitted in El Dorado County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $681 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Dorado County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,022 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.16%
• DSCR: 2.56
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $95,616
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6165 Pony Express Trl #38	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (0%)	8mo	$65,000	$56	93
4 Axle	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,050 (-9%)	19mo	$125,000	$119	40
2921 Forebay Rd #3	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+4%)	22mo	$99,000	$83	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $35,532
• Equity at exit: $14,687

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.53×
• Total profit: $97,326
• Equity at exit: $8,516

Cash invested: $27,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95726

• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,885 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$517
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$123 /mo · $1,478/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $808

Break-even live

Break-even rent $862

Max offer price $98,500

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,625
• Closing costs: $2,955
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6216 Spruce Ave Pollock Pines, CA	2.0	1.5	1001	$1,750	$1.75	1d	1	0.14mi
2988 Bonanza St Pollock Pines, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,895	$1.90	4d	1	0.17mi
2988 Bonanza St Unit 2 Pollock Pines, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	3d	1	0.17mi
2893 Polaris St Pollock Pines, CA	2.0	1.0	870	$2,100	$2.41	1d	1	0.38mi
6001 Pony Express Trl Pollock Pines, CA	1.0	1.0	730	$2,300	$3.15	1d	1	0.43mi
6301 Fairview Dr Pollock Pines, CA	3.0	2.0	1203	$1,950	$1.62	1d	1	0.46mi
6396 Pony Express Trl Pollock Pines, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,450	$2.07	1d	1	0.49mi
5900 Pony Express Trl Unit 14 Pollock Pines, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	1d	1	0.66mi
5731 Pony Express Trl Unit 2 Pollock Pines, CA	3.0	1.0	1094	$2,000	$1.83	1d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $98,500 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $98,500 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $98,500 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $98,500 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $98,500 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $98,500 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $98,500 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $98,500 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $98,500 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $98,500 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $98,500 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $98,500 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $98,500 Active 9 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 24 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,614
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,518
• − Property taxes: −$1,478
• − Insurance: −$492
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,809
• − Management: −$1,809
• − Depreciation: −$2,865
• Taxable income: $8,643
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,074
• After-tax cash flow: $7,622/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pollock Pines Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0631290
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,474
• Composite: 30.11/100
• National rank: #6334
• State rank: #277 of 517 in CA

Livability — Pollock Pines

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #864
• US rank: #23561

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment B- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pollock Pines, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,229

Population outlook (El Dorado County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,666 people
• By 2030: 193,662 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 192,583 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 185,904 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 169,543 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 139,623 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Dorado

• 2024 margin: R (+12.0) · D 42.6% · R 54.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.5pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -12.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.0 2020: R+8.8 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+18.2 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.87%
• Current HPI: 253.8307
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2023): $195 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.