2303 Carlisle Ave · Montrose, VA 23231

$235,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1939 6,311 sqft lot Est $330k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor special! Great opportunity to renovate and add value to this 2-level Cape Cod/bungalow. Featuring 4 bedrooms (2 on the main level and 2 upstairs), with a full bath on the main level and a half bath on the upper level, this home offers a flexible layout ready for your vision. The property includes a covered front porch and a spacious yard, providing additional potential for outdoor improvements or expansion. Ideal for a fix-and-flip, rental property, or long-term hold. Conveniently located with plenty of charm, enjoy walkability to local, family-owned businesses, with shopping and dining just minutes away. Bring your contractor and imagination—this home needs updates, but offe

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Spacious yard
• 6,311 sq ft lot

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS YARD
• SHOPPING AND DINING NEARBY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14 ($166/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.3% in Montrose — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#129 in VA, #4,169 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Montrose Elementary (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,108 statewide, top 92%, 311 students, 89% FRL); John Rolfe Middle (math 15% / reading 28%, grade F, #338 of 342 statewide, top 99%, 764 students, 89% FRL); Varina High (math 40% / reading 73%, grade C, #270 of 319 statewide, top 86%, 1,405 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 34% district-wide (54 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Henrico County Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 188 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $235k implies a 194% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,329 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.25%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $329,760
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2303 Carlisle Ave	0.00mi	4/1.5	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$240,000	$167	99
1815 Carlisle Ave	0.29mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,471 (+2%)	2mo	$197,000	$134	74
2304 N Newton Cir	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$345,000	$240	72
2323 Farrand Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,599 (+11%)	2mo	$366,000	$229	70
2239 Williamsburg Rd	0.15mi	4/1.5	1,613 (+12%)	5mo	$249,900	$155	68
1332 Darbytown Rd	0.56mi	4/1.5	1,547 (+7%)	2mo	$195,000	$126	59
2670 Biscuit Ct	0.44mi	4/2.5	1,604 (+11%)	3mo	$382,105	$238	54
1508 Williamsburg Rd	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,520 (+6%)	0mo	$330,000	$217	51
1422 Carlisle Ave	0.68mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,412 (-2%)	4mo	$367,000	$260	50
5122 Salem St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,326 (-8%)	1mo	$325,000	$245	49
1509 Nelson St	0.73mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,316 (-9%)	0mo	$295,000	$224	44
5202 Campbell Ave	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,595 (+11%)	2mo	$385,000	$241	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-41,136
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-50,226
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23231

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,073 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$294 /mo · $3,525/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,056

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $176	-5% $95	+0% $14	+5% $-67	+10% $-149
Rent	-10% $-150	-5% $-68	+0% $14	+5% $96	+10% $178
Rate	-1.0pp $132	-0.5pp $74	base $14	+0.5pp $-47	+1.0pp $-109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2411 Carlisle Ave Henrico, VA	3.0	1.0	930	$1,750	$1.88	3d	1	0.27mi
2524 National St Henrico, VA	3.0	2.0	1144	$2,100	$1.84	45d	1	0.38mi
1400 Jennie Scher Rd Richmond, VA	2.0–3.0	1.0	900	$1,475	$1.64	45d	2	0.68mi
5319 Blueridge Ave Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,914	$1.59	23d	1	0.69mi
1210 Carlisle Ave Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	912	$1,695	$1.86	6d	1	0.77mi
5410 Campbell Ave Richmond, VA	4.0	2.5	1560	$2,100	$1.35	45d	1	0.79mi
5506 Campbell Ave Richmond, VA	5.0	2.0	960	$3,300	$3.44	25d	1	0.84mi
5205 Scott St Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	912	$1,995	$2.19	4d	1	0.94mi
811 N 33rd St Unit A Richmond, VA	3.0	2.0	1315	$1,900	$1.44	6d	1	1.36mi
811 N 33rd St Unit A Richmond, VA	3.0	2.0	1315	$1,900	$1.44	19d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   price $235,000
3. 2026-04-17
   price $245,000
4. 2026-04-13
   price $255,000
5. 2026-03-31
   price $265,000
6. 2026-03-27
   listed $285,000 Active
7. 2000-06-01
   soldstatus $79,900
8. 1997-11-01
   soldstatus $38,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,879
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$3,525
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,990
• − Management: −$1,990
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$3,801
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$912
• After-tax cash flow: $1,079/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henrico County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101890
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $61,854
• Composite: 49.25/100
• National rank: #2031
• State rank: #68 of 131 in VA

Livability — Montrose

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #129
• US rank: #4169

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montrose, VA
• County: Henrico County · 334,490 people
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 38,544
• Household income: $76,505
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1555.0

Population outlook (Henrico County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,885 people
• By 2030: 384,255 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 416,688 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 442,376 · +20.9%
• By 2075: 488,037 · +33.4%
• By 2100: 487,430 · +33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 34% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henrico

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.9) · D 63.7% · R 34.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.9 2020: D+29.0 2016: D+21.0 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -207.28%
• Current HPI: 315.8154
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+518.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $235,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $245,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $255,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $265,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $285,000 CVRMLS
• 2000-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $79,900 Public Records
• 1997-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records