306 Erie Ave · Rockdale, TX 76567

$155,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1956 0.38 ac lot $135/sqft · 5% above area Est $147k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

newly remodeled and simply adorable. This 2 bedroom beauty is as neat as a pin and ready for a young family or someone just wanting to size down. The neighborhood is very quiet and private.

Key facts

• Large spacious lot
• Room for expansion
• 0.38 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE SPACIOUS LOT
• ROOM FOR EXPANSION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Suburban community

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; South-facing
• Construction: Built per public records; HardiPlank and vinyl siding; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Back yard and front yard; Moderate trees; Rear covered porch and patio; Shed(s); Privacy wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Linoleum; Tile
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans (cooling)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Blinds; Main-level primary suite; Study; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer hookup and electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $56 ($670/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.6% in Rockdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,040 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Rockdale ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #395 of 826 in TX (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 161 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 77 units permitted in Milam County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Milam County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,169 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.54%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $147,415
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: 5.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
920 Haley Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (+2%)	5mo	$189,000	$161	80
313 Charles St	0.03mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,166 (+1%)	18mo	$99,000	$85	76
736 W Bell Ave	0.20mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,216 (+6%)	4mo	$59,900	$49	73
110 S Travis St	0.38mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,128 (-2%)	2mo	$139,000	$123	72
1912 Alcoa Ave	0.67mi	2/1.0	1,118 (-3%)	3mo	$179,999	$161	62
616 Francine Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,153 (+0%)	11mo	$130,000	$113	59
316 Mary St	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (-8%)	18mo	$149,000	$141	57
619 E Jackson St	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,050 (-9%)	5mo	$215,000	$205	53
437 W Davilla Ave	0.53mi	2/1.0	1,042 (-9%)	9mo	$167,000	$160	52
542 College St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,254 (+9%)	13mo	$189,900	$151	43
534 Evelyn St	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,270 (+10%)	20mo	$205,000	$161	43
402 Boyd Ave	0.67mi	2/1.0	1,088 (-5%)	21mo	$149,900	$138	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-21,570
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-14,246
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76567

• Home prices YoY: -12.9%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,362 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,709/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,291

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $144	-5% $100	+0% $56	+5% $12	+10% $-32
Rent	-10% $-52	-5% $2	+0% $56	+5% $110	+10% $163
Rate	-1.0pp $134	-0.5pp $95	base $56	+0.5pp $16	+1.0pp $-25

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
313 Mary St Rockdale, TX	3.0	1.0	902	$1,375	$1.52	44d	1	0.07mi
622 Scarbrough St Rockdale, TX	2.0	1.0	904	$1,050	$1.16	2d	1	0.69mi
823 Hickory St Rockdale, TX	3.0	2.0	1244	$1,650	$1.33	44d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-14
   historical Active Under Contract 343-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $155,000 Active 343-char remark
3. 2013-06-11
   soldstatus
4. 2013-06-10
   soldstatus 189-char remark

   Show marketing remark (189 chars)

   newly remodeled and simply adorable. This 2 bedroom beauty is as neat as a pin and ready for a young family or someone just wanting to size down. The neighborhood is very quiet and private.

5. 2013-04-15
   listed $69,900 189-char remark

   Show marketing remark (189 chars)

   newly remodeled and simply adorable. This 2 bedroom beauty is as neat as a pin and ready for a young family or someone just wanting to size down. The neighborhood is very quiet and private.

6. 1989-05-12
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,709 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,836 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,127/yr (+$94/mo · 65.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,709
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,307
• − Management: −$1,307
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$1,950
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$468
• After-tax cash flow: $1,138/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockdale ISD
• NCES district ID: 4837590
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,586
• Composite: 34.64/100
• National rank: #5147
• State rank: #395 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rockdale

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1040
• US rank: #18508

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockdale, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,457

Population outlook (Milam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,051 people
• By 2030: 23,613 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 22,693 · -5.6%
• By 2050: 21,879 · -9.0%
• By 2075: 20,974 · -12.8%
• By 2100: 19,414 · -19.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 11% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Milam

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.3) · D 21.0% · R 78.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.3pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -57.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.3 2020: R+51.9 2016: R+49.9 2012: R+34.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.12%
• Current HPI: 217.5536
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+121.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-14 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $155,000 Unlock MLS
• 2013-06-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-06-10 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2013-04-15 Listed $69,900 Unlock MLS
• 1989-05-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,709 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.