925B Liverpool Cir Unit b · Leisure Village West, NJ 08759

$239,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,479 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 1986 Fair condition 7,405 sqft lot Est $287k · 17% under $442/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract continue to show. PICKFORD model has just come on the market! Investors and savvy buyers. .. .you are going to want this one! This large home has privacy that ''screams'' tranquility. .. . Lush mature landscape, 2 master bedroom suites, high ceilings, front sunroom, direct entry oversized garage, an abundance of closet space, and oozing natural light throughout. Leisure Vlg West is a very ''active'' gated community that offers 2 renovated clubhouses, lakes , gym, pools , billiards , bocce, shuffleboard, golf , community bussing , 60+ various clubs/activities and sooooo much more! Bring your ideas & personal touches. .. .you will be happy you did! Centrally located to

Key facts

• Front sunroom
• Natural light
• 7,405 sq ft lot

Tags

• LUSH MATURE LANDSCAPE
• FRONT SUNROOM
• DIRECT ENTRY OVERSIZED GARAGE
• ABUNDANCE OF CLOSET SPACE
• NATURAL LIGHT
• ACTIVE GATED COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association (Leisure Vlg West); Monthly association fee; Association fee includes trash, common area maintenance, lawn maintenance, pool, and snow removal; Community amenities include exercise room, community room, clubhouse, pool, common areas, jogging path, bocci, and landscaping

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Attached property; Model: PICKFORD; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Property is attached
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Level topography

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Gas cooking
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (all on the first level)
• Flooring: Linoleum; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Outdoor lighting; Window treatments and blinds/shades; Ceiling fan(s); Central vacuum; Light fixtures; Garbage disposal
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $239k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $240 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $239k).
• Recommended offer: $235k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 5.8% in Leisure Village West — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#261 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,415 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.30%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $286,926
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
826B Liverpool Cir	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,468 (-1%)	1mo	$279,000	$190	86
833 Westminster Ct Unit C	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,468 (-1%)	2mo	$285,000	$194	83
706B Liverpool Cir	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,468 (-1%)	5mo	$230,000	$157	81
949A Liverpool Cir	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,381 (-7%)	2mo	$295,000	$214	80
708C Wooton Ct	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,602 (+8%)	3mo	$292,000	$182	77
1230B Thornbury Ln	0.53mi	2/2.5	1,479 (0%)	2mo	$335,000	$227	74
1247B Thornbury Ln	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,474 (-0%)	5mo	$270,000	$183	66
647C Dunstable Ct Unit C	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,468 (-1%)	2mo	$300,000	$204	63
569B Mayfair Rd	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,602 (+8%)	2mo	$285,000	$178	56
725 Birmingham Ave	0.72mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,512 (+2%)	1mo	$545,000	$360	53
64A Cambridge Cir	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,605 (+8%)	0mo	$285,000	$178	49
609 Commonwealth Blvd	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,323 (-10%)	4mo	$400,000	$302	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-23,149
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $779
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,954 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$299 /mo · $3,585/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$442
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,650

Max offer price $239,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
150 Farm Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1280	$3,000	$2.34	22d	1	0.39mi
616 Lawrence Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.5	1508	$3,100	$2.06	3d	1	0.60mi
2035 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,775	$2.02	1d	3	0.68mi
2501 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1252	$3,468	$2.77	1d	6	0.76mi
501 Bismarck St Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,775	$2.13	43d	1	0.95mi
1700 New Jersey 37 Unit 112-11 Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1224	$2,299	$1.88	1d	1	1.03mi
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	967	$2,200	$2.28	43d	1	1.21mi
19 Marlow Ave Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1551	$2,400	$1.55	1d	1	1.25mi
1008 4th Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1656	$3,400	$2.05	1d	1	1.29mi
1425 Amsterdam Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1376	$3,500	$2.54	43d	1	1.41mi
52 Rockingham Way #1 Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.5	1848	$3,275	$1.77	43d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $442 · $5,304/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymsecurity

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $239,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 695-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $239,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,443
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$3,585
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,835
• − Management: −$2,835
• − HOA: −$5,304
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$653
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$157
• After-tax cash flow: $3,032/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home has a fair condition with moderate repairs needed in the kitchen and bathroom. Updating these areas will significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — outdated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate kitchen countertops — tile countertops need updating

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen will appeal to both buyers and renters
• Both update bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathroom will appeal to both buyers and renters
• Both paint interior walls — painting the interior walls will improve the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · outdated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen countertops · tile countertops need updating	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$9,000–45,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen will appeal to both buyers and renters ↑
• Both update bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathroom will appeal to both buyers and renters ↑
• Both paint interior walls — painting the interior walls will improve the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Leisure Village West

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #7714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village West, NJ
• City population: 34,290
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $239,000 MOMLS