925B Liverpool Cir Unit b · Leisure Village West, NJ
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 4/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $526 – $976
Heat risk 7/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 102°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 62.0%
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 3 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 4 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +19.4/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +7.5/10.0
- DSCR +6.1/10.0
- Livability +3.5/5.0
- Schools +3.3/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.2/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$239,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Under contract continue to show. PICKFORD model has just come on the market! Investors and savvy buyers. .. .you are going to want this one! This large home has privacy that ''screams'' tranquility. .. . Lush mature landscape, 2 master bedroom suites, high ceilings, front sunroom, direct entry oversized garage, an abundance of closet space, and oozing natural light throughout. Leisure Vlg West is a very ''active'' gated community that offers 2 renovated clubhouses, lakes , gym, pools , billiards , bocce, shuffleboard, golf , community bussing , 60+ various clubs/activities and sooooo much more! Bring your ideas & personal touches. .. .you will be happy you did!
Key facts
- Front sunroom
- Natural light
- 7,405 sq ft lot
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $239k. Condition is rated fair.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $266 ($3k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $239k).
- Recommended offer: $232k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 5.9% in Leisure Village West — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 70/100 on livability (#261 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
- Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Manchester Township Elementary School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #642 of 1,303 statewide, top 50%, 514 students, 45% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 23% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: 1083 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $2,987/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.25% ✓
- Cap rate
- 7.63%
- Cash-on-cash
- 4.77%
- DSCR
- 1.21
- GRM
- 6.7
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $315,075
- List price
- $239,000
- Delta
- -24.15%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 925B Liverpool Cir Unit b | 0.00mi | 2/2.5 | 1,479 (0%) | 2mo | $203,000 | $137 | 98 |
| 713B Wooton Ct Unit b | 0.16mi | 2/2.0 | 1,468 (-1%) | 2mo | $319,000 | $217 | 88 |
| 910A Liverpool Cir | 0.11mi | 2/2.0 | 1,381 (-7%) | 0mo | $252,500 | $183 | 82 |
| 1031-B Thornbury Ln | 0.38mi | 2/2.5 | 1,479 (0%) | 1mo | $310,000 | $210 | 81 |
| 1082A Buckingham Dr | 0.29mi | 2/2.0 | 1,394 (-6%) | 2mo | $310,000 | $222 | 73 |
| 559C Malvern Ct | 0.56mi | 2/2.0 | 1,468 (-1%) | 1mo | $330,000 | $225 | 70 |
| 799A Westminster Ct | 0.32mi | 2/2.0 | 1,602 (+8%) | 2mo | $314,900 | $197 | 67 |
| 1156B Thornbury Ln | 0.44mi | 2/2.0 | 1,394 (-6%) | 1mo | $260,000 | $187 | 67 |
| 681A Huntington Dr | 0.47mi | 2/2.0 | 1,381 (-7%) | 1mo | $210,000 | $152 | 64 |
| 509C Tiffany Ln | 0.50mi | 2/2.0 | 1,381 (-7%) | 2mo | $212,000 | $154 | 62 |
| 470A Chelsea Ct | 0.57mi | 2/2.0 | 1,381 (-7%) | 0mo | $275,000 | $199 | 60 |
| 508 Riverside Ave | 0.42mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,296 (-12%) | 0mo | $470,000 | $363 | 49 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -8.7%
- Equity multiple
- 0.68×
- Total profit
- $-21,478
- Equity at exit
- $35,636
- IRR
- 0.9%
- Equity multiple
- 1.07×
- Total profit
- $4,388
- Equity at exit
- $20,664
Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 21 Tenant-Leaning
- State New Jersey
- 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 55 active · 77 under contract
- Months of supply
- 4.2 mo (24%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $319,000 ($222/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 52 d
- This list price
- 4% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- -4.2% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 08759
- Active inventory
- 1083
- Price-to-rent
- 6.7×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,987 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,253
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$299 /mo · $3,585/yr
- Insurance
- −$100
- HOA
- −$442
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$627
- Net cashflow
- $266
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $431 | -5% $348 | +0% $266 | +5% $183 | +10% $101 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $30 | -5% $148 | +0% $266 | +5% $384 | +10% $502 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $386 | -0.5pp $327 | base $266 | +0.5pp $204 | +1.0pp $141 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $59,750
- Closing costs
- $7,170
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 22 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 150 Farm Rd Manchester, NJ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1280 | $3,000 | $2.34 | 117d | 1 | 0.39mi |
| 43 3rd St Manchester, NJ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1346 | $3,200 | $2.38 | 47d | 1 | 0.43mi |
| 43 3rd St Manchester, NJ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1346 | $3,000 | $2.23 | 0d | 1 | 0.43mi |
| 517A Cheshire Ct Manchester, NJ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1381 | $2,250 | $1.63 | 18d | 1 | 0.52mi |
| 412 Birmingham Ave Manchester, NJ | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1786 | $3,750 | $2.10 | 0d | 1 | 0.53mi |
| 561B Malvern Ct Manchester, NJ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1602 | $1,500 | $0.94 | 36d | 1 | 0.59mi |
| 616 Lawrence Ave Toms River, NJ | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1508 | $3,100 | $2.06 | 98d | 1 | 0.60mi |
| 2035 Route 37 Manchester, NJ | 1.0–2.0 | 2.0 | 1375 | $3,150 | $2.29 | 0d | 5 | 0.68mi |
| 725 Birmingham Ave Toms River, NJ | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1512 | $3,500 | $2.31 | 68d | 1 | 0.72mi |
| 809 Commonwealth Blvd Toms River, NJ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1226 | $3,000 | $2.45 | 29d | 1 | 0.85mi |
| 501 Bismarck St Toms River, NJ | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1300 | $2,775 | $2.13 | 139d | 1 | 0.95mi |
| 35C Edinburgh Ln Manchester, NJ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 964 | $1,950 | $2.02 | 6d | 1 | 0.96mi |
| 1033 Birmingham Ave Toms River, NJ | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1250 | $2,700 | $2.16 | 78d | 1 | 1.03mi |
| 1700 New Jersey 37 Unit 112-11 Toms River, NJ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1224 | $2,299 | $1.88 | 5d | 1 | 1.03mi |
| 1200 Lawrence Ave Toms River, NJ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1248 | $3,200 | $2.56 | 24d | 1 | 1.18mi |
| 73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 967 | $2,200 | $2.28 | 139d | 1 | 1.21mi |
| 2 Leighton Ln #2 Manchester Township, NJ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1317 | $2,900 | $2.20 | 0d | 1 | 1.23mi |
| 1241 Monmouth Ave Toms River, NJ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1608 | $3,250 | $2.02 | 7d | 1 | 1.23mi |
| 19 Marlow Ave Manchester, NJ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1551 | $2,400 | $1.55 | 84d | 1 | 1.25mi |
| 1008 4th Ave Toms River, NJ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1656 | $3,400 | $2.05 | 93d | 1 | 1.29mi |
| 1425 Amsterdam Ave Toms River, NJ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1376 | $3,500 | $2.54 | 139d | 1 | 1.41mi |
| 52 Rockingham Way #1 Manchester, NJ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1848 | $3,275 | $1.77 | 139d | 1 | 1.42mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- HOA & community
- Community association (Leisure Vlg West)Monthly association feeAssociation fee includes trash, common area maintenance, lawn maintenance, pool, and snow removalCommunity amenities include exercise room, community room, clubhouse, pool, common areas, jogging path, bocci, and landscaping
Exterior
- Parking
- Attached garage (1 car)
- Utilities
- Public sewer
- Home design
- Attached propertyModel: PICKFORDFee simple ownership
- Construction
- Property is attached
- Exterior features
- Shingle roofLevel topography
Interior
- Kitchen
- StoveRefrigeratorDishwasherGas cooking
- Bedrooms
- 2 bedrooms (all on the first level)
- Flooring
- LinoleumCeramic tile
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
- Heating & cooling
- Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
- Interior features
- Outdoor lightingWindow treatments and blinds/shadesCeiling fan(s)Central vacuumLight fixturesGarbage disposal
- Laundry & utility
- WasherDryer
HOA detail $442/mo · $5,304/yr
- Likely covers
- poolgymsecurity
Listing history 44 events
-
2026-07-30days on market $239,000 Active 58 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $239,000 Active 57 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $239,000 Active 55 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $239,000 Active 53 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $239,000 Active 52 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $239,000 Active 51 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $239,000 Active 50 DOM
-
2026-07-20days on market $239,000 Active 49 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $239,000 Active 47 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $239,000 Active 46 DOM
-
2026-07-15days on market $239,000 Active 44 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $239,000 Active 43 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $239,000 Active 42 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $239,000 Active 41 DOM
-
2026-07-11days on market $239,000 Active 40 DOM
-
2026-07-10days on market $239,000 Active 39 DOM
-
2026-07-09days on market $239,000 Active 38 DOM
-
2026-07-07days on market $239,000 Active 36 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $239,000 Active 35 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $239,000 Active 34 DOM
-
2026-07-05days on market $239,000 Active 33 DOM
-
2026-07-03days on market $239,000 Active 32 DOM
-
2026-07-02days on market $239,000 Active 31 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $239,000 Active 30 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $239,000 Active 29 DOM
-
2026-06-29days on market $239,000 Active 28 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $239,000 Active 27 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $239,000 Active 26 DOM
-
2026-06-26days on market $239,000 Active 25 DOM
-
2026-06-24days on market $239,000 Active 23 DOM
-
2026-06-22days on market $239,000 Active 21 DOM
-
2026-06-21days on market $239,000 Active 20 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $239,000 Active 17 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $239,000 Active 16 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $239,000 Active 15 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $239,000 Active 14 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $239,000 Active 12 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $239,000 Active 8 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $239,000 Active 7 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $239,000 Active 6 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $239,000 Active 3 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $239,000 Active 2 DOM
-
2026-06-02remarks 695-char remark
-
2026-06-02$239,000 Active 1 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
- Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $35,841
- − Mortgage interest
- −$13,388
- − Property taxes
- −$3,585
- − Insurance
- −$1,195
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,867
- − Management
- −$2,867
- − HOA
- −$5,304
- − Depreciation
- −$6,953
- Taxable loss
- −$318
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$76
- After-tax cash flow
- $3,267/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
This home has a fair condition with moderate repairs needed in the kitchen and bathroom. Updating these areas will significantly increase its resale and rental value.
Repairs flagged
- Moderate kitchen cabinets — outdated and in need of replacement
- Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of replacement
- Moderate kitchen countertops — tile countertops need updating
Value-add opportunities
- Both update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen will appeal to both buyers and renters ↑
- Both update bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathroom will appeal to both buyers and renters ↑
- Both paint interior walls — painting the interior walls will improve the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Manchester Township School District
- NCES district ID
- 3409450
- Math proficiency
- 25% ▼ -17.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 44% ▼ -5.00%
- Median HH income
- $38,905
- Composite
- 28.8/100
- National rank
- #6662
- State rank
- #320 of 472 in NJ
Livability — Leisure Village West
- Score
- 70/100
- State rank
- #261
- US rank
- #7714
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Leisure Village West, NJ
- County
- Ocean · 586,991 people
- City population
- 34,290
- Metro
- New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
- Population (ZIP)
- 34,290
- Household income
- $55,000
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 11% of renters
Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 586,991 people
- By 2030
- 581,403 · -1.0%
- By 2040
- 564,913 · -3.8%
- By 2050
- 538,149 · -8.3%
- By 2075
- 468,845 · -20.1%
- By 2100
- 350,297 · -40.3%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (87%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Puerto Rican 2%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 11% · Canada, China
- Languages at home
- 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%
Political lean MEDSL · Ocean
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -347.85%
- Current HPI
- 274.4679
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.05%
- F500 in state
- 34
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer Goods | 3 | $31B |
|
||
| Pharmaceuticals | 2 | $153B |
|
||
| Technology | 2 | $21B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $20B |
|
||
| Healthcare | 2 | $19B |
|
||
| Financial Services | 1 | $70B |
|
||
Price history
1 event — show timeline
- 2026-06-01 Listed $239,000 MOMLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…