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925B Liverpool Cir Unit b
C Composite 59.58
Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +19.4/30.0
  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • 1% rule +7.5/10.0
  • DSCR +6.1/10.0
  • Livability +3.5/5.0
  • Schools +3.3/10.0
  • Rent growth +2.5/5.0
  • Condition / age +2.2/5.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$239,000

925B Liverpool Cir Unit b · Leisure Village West, NJ 08759
2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,479 sqft · SingleFamily · 58 Days on market
Built 1986 Fair condition 7,405 sqft lot Garage $162/sqft · 24% below area Est $315k · 24% under $442/mo HOA · 15% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Under contract continue to show. PICKFORD model has just come on the market! Investors and savvy buyers. .. .you are going to want this one! This large home has privacy that ''screams'' tranquility. .. . Lush mature landscape, 2 master bedroom suites, high ceilings, front sunroom, direct entry oversized garage, an abundance of closet space, and oozing natural light throughout. Leisure Vlg West is a very ''active'' gated community that offers 2 renovated clubhouses, lakes , gym, pools , billiards , bocce, shuffleboard, golf , community bussing , 60+ various clubs/activities and sooooo much more! Bring your ideas & personal touches. .. .you will be happy you did!

Key facts

  • Front sunroom
  • Natural light
  • 7,405 sq ft lot

Tags

LUSH MATURE LANDSCAPEFRONT SUNROOMDIRECT ENTRY OVERSIZED GARAGEABUNDANCE OF CLOSET SPACENATURAL LIGHTACTIVE GATED COMMUNITY

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $239k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $266 ($3k/yr) — positive.
  • The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
  • Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $239k).
  • Recommended offer: $232k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
  • Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 5.9% in Leisure Village West — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 70/100 on livability (#261 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
  • Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Manchester Township Elementary School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #642 of 1,303 statewide, top 50%, 514 students, 45% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 23% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Market conditions: 1083 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • At $2,987/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $231,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
1.25%
Cap rate
7.63%
Cash-on-cash
4.77%
DSCR
1.21
GRM
6.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$315,075
List price
$239,000
Delta
-24.15%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
925B Liverpool Cir Unit b 0.00mi 2/2.5 1,479 (0%) 2mo $203,000 $137 98
713B Wooton Ct Unit b 0.16mi 2/2.0 1,468 (-1%) 2mo $319,000 $217 88
910A Liverpool Cir 0.11mi 2/2.0 1,381 (-7%) 0mo $252,500 $183 82
1031-B Thornbury Ln 0.38mi 2/2.5 1,479 (0%) 1mo $310,000 $210 81
1082A Buckingham Dr 0.29mi 2/2.0 1,394 (-6%) 2mo $310,000 $222 73
559C Malvern Ct 0.56mi 2/2.0 1,468 (-1%) 1mo $330,000 $225 70
799A Westminster Ct 0.32mi 2/2.0 1,602 (+8%) 2mo $314,900 $197 67
1156B Thornbury Ln 0.44mi 2/2.0 1,394 (-6%) 1mo $260,000 $187 67
681A Huntington Dr 0.47mi 2/2.0 1,381 (-7%) 1mo $210,000 $152 64
509C Tiffany Ln 0.50mi 2/2.0 1,381 (-7%) 2mo $212,000 $154 62
470A Chelsea Ct 0.57mi 2/2.0 1,381 (-7%) 0mo $275,000 $199 60
508 Riverside Ave 0.42mi 3/1.0 (+1) 1,296 (-12%) 0mo $470,000 $363 49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-8.7%
Equity multiple
0.68×
Total profit
$-21,478
Equity at exit
$35,636
10-year hold
IRR
0.9%
Equity multiple
1.07×
Total profit
$4,388
Equity at exit
$20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
21 Tenant-Leaning
State New Jersey
21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.
Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
55 active · 77 under contract
Months of supply
4.2 mo (24%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$319,000 ($222/sqft)
Median days on market
52 d
This list price
4% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
-4.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08759

Active inventory
1083
Price-to-rent
6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,987 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,253
Tax est. 1.5%
$299 /mo · $3,585/yr
Insurance
$100
HOA
$442
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$627
Net cashflow
$266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,650
Max offer price $239,000
Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $431 -5% $348 +0% $266 +5% $183 +10% $101
Rent -10% $30 -5% $148 +0% $266 +5% $384 +10% $502
Rate -1.0pp $386 -0.5pp $327 base $266 +0.5pp $204 +1.0pp $141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$59,750
Closing costs
$7,170
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 22 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
150 Farm Rd Manchester, NJ 3.0 2.0 1280 $3,000 $2.34 117d 1 0.39mi
43 3rd St Manchester, NJ 3.0 2.0 1346 $3,200 $2.38 47d 1 0.43mi
43 3rd St Manchester, NJ 3.0 2.0 1346 $3,000 $2.23 0d 1 0.43mi
517A Cheshire Ct Manchester, NJ 2.0 2.0 1381 $2,250 $1.63 18d 1 0.52mi
412 Birmingham Ave Manchester, NJ 3.0 3.0 1786 $3,750 $2.10 0d 1 0.53mi
561B Malvern Ct Manchester, NJ 2.0 2.0 1602 $1,500 $0.94 36d 1 0.59mi
616 Lawrence Ave Toms River, NJ 3.0 1.5 1508 $3,100 $2.06 98d 1 0.60mi
2035 Route 37 Manchester, NJ 1.0–2.0 2.0 1375 $3,150 $2.29 0d 5 0.68mi
725 Birmingham Ave Toms River, NJ 3.0 1.5 1512 $3,500 $2.31 68d 1 0.72mi
809 Commonwealth Blvd Toms River, NJ 3.0 2.0 1226 $3,000 $2.45 29d 1 0.85mi
501 Bismarck St Toms River, NJ 3.0 1.0 1300 $2,775 $2.13 139d 1 0.95mi
35C Edinburgh Ln Manchester, NJ 2.0 1.0 964 $1,950 $2.02 6d 1 0.96mi
1033 Birmingham Ave Toms River, NJ 3.0 1.5 1250 $2,700 $2.16 78d 1 1.03mi
1700 New Jersey 37 Unit 112-11 Toms River, NJ 2.0 2.0 1224 $2,299 $1.88 5d 1 1.03mi
1200 Lawrence Ave Toms River, NJ 3.0 2.0 1248 $3,200 $2.56 24d 1 1.18mi
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ 2.0 2.0 967 $2,200 $2.28 139d 1 1.21mi
2 Leighton Ln #2 Manchester Township, NJ 2.0 2.0 1317 $2,900 $2.20 0d 1 1.23mi
1241 Monmouth Ave Toms River, NJ 3.0 2.0 1608 $3,250 $2.02 7d 1 1.23mi
19 Marlow Ave Manchester, NJ 2.0 2.0 1551 $2,400 $1.55 84d 1 1.25mi
1008 4th Ave Toms River, NJ 3.0 2.0 1656 $3,400 $2.05 93d 1 1.29mi
1425 Amsterdam Ave Toms River, NJ 3.0 2.0 1376 $3,500 $2.54 139d 1 1.41mi
52 Rockingham Way #1 Manchester, NJ 3.0 2.5 1848 $3,275 $1.77 139d 1 1.42mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community
Community association (Leisure Vlg West)Monthly association feeAssociation fee includes trash, common area maintenance, lawn maintenance, pool, and snow removalCommunity amenities include exercise room, community room, clubhouse, pool, common areas, jogging path, bocci, and landscaping

Exterior

Parking
Attached garage (1 car)
Utilities
Public sewer
Home design
Attached propertyModel: PICKFORDFee simple ownership
Construction
Property is attached
Exterior features
Shingle roofLevel topography

Interior

Kitchen
StoveRefrigeratorDishwasherGas cooking
Bedrooms
2 bedrooms (all on the first level)
Flooring
LinoleumCeramic tile
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling
Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
Interior features
Outdoor lightingWindow treatments and blinds/shadesCeiling fan(s)Central vacuumLight fixturesGarbage disposal
Laundry & utility
WasherDryer

HOA detail $442/mo · $5,304/yr

Likely covers
poolgymsecurity

Listing history 44 events

  1. 2026-07-30
    days on market $239,000 Active 58 DOM
  2. 2026-07-28
    days on market $239,000 Active 57 DOM
  3. 2026-07-26
    days on market $239,000 Active 55 DOM
  4. 2026-07-24
    days on market $239,000 Active 53 DOM
  5. 2026-07-23
    days on market $239,000 Active 52 DOM
  6. 2026-07-22
    days on market $239,000 Active 51 DOM
  7. 2026-07-21
    days on market $239,000 Active 50 DOM
  8. 2026-07-20
    days on market $239,000 Active 49 DOM
  9. 2026-07-18
    days on market $239,000 Active 47 DOM
  10. 2026-07-18
    days on market $239,000 Active 46 DOM
  11. 2026-07-15
    days on market $239,000 Active 44 DOM
  12. 2026-07-14
    days on market $239,000 Active 43 DOM
  13. 2026-07-13
    days on market $239,000 Active 42 DOM
  14. 2026-07-13
    days on market $239,000 Active 41 DOM
  15. 2026-07-11
    days on market $239,000 Active 40 DOM
  16. 2026-07-10
    days on market $239,000 Active 39 DOM
  17. 2026-07-09
    days on market $239,000 Active 38 DOM
  18. 2026-07-07
    days on market $239,000 Active 36 DOM
  19. 2026-07-06
    days on market $239,000 Active 35 DOM
  20. 2026-07-06
    days on market $239,000 Active 34 DOM
  21. 2026-07-05
    days on market $239,000 Active 33 DOM
  22. 2026-07-03
    days on market $239,000 Active 32 DOM
  23. 2026-07-02
    days on market $239,000 Active 31 DOM
  24. 2026-07-01
    days on market $239,000 Active 30 DOM
  25. 2026-06-30
    days on market $239,000 Active 29 DOM
  26. 2026-06-29
    days on market $239,000 Active 28 DOM
  27. 2026-06-28
    days on market $239,000 Active 27 DOM
  28. 2026-06-27
    days on market $239,000 Active 26 DOM
  29. 2026-06-26
    days on market $239,000 Active 25 DOM
  30. 2026-06-24
    days on market $239,000 Active 23 DOM
  31. 2026-06-22
    days on market $239,000 Active 21 DOM
  32. 2026-06-21
    days on market $239,000 Active 20 DOM
  33. 2026-06-18
    days on market $239,000 Active 17 DOM
  34. 2026-06-17
    days on market $239,000 Active 16 DOM
  35. 2026-06-16
    days on market $239,000 Active 15 DOM
  36. 2026-06-15
    days on market $239,000 Active 14 DOM
  37. 2026-06-13
    days on market $239,000 Active 12 DOM
  38. 2026-06-09
    days on market $239,000 Active 8 DOM
  39. 2026-06-08
    days on market $239,000 Active 7 DOM
  40. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,000 Active 6 DOM
  41. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,000 Active 3 DOM
  42. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,000 Active 2 DOM
  43. 2026-06-02
    remarks 695-char remark
  44. 2026-06-02
    listed $239,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$35,841
− Mortgage interest
−$13,388
− Property taxes
−$3,585
− Insurance
−$1,195
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,867
− Management
−$2,867
− HOA
−$5,304
− Depreciation
−$6,953
Taxable loss
−$318
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$76
After-tax cash flow
$3,267/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $36,975–$66,555 screening

This home has a fair condition with moderate repairs needed in the kitchen and bathroom. Updating these areas will significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

  • Moderate kitchen cabinets — outdated and in need of replacement
  • Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of replacement
  • Moderate kitchen countertops — tile countertops need updating

Value-add opportunities

  • Both update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen will appeal to both buyers and renters
  • Both update bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathroom will appeal to both buyers and renters
  • Both paint interior walls — painting the interior walls will improve the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Manchester Township Elementary School F NJ #642/1,303 Nat'l #24,299/41,679 Middle Manchester Township Middle School F NJ #226/431 Nat'l #7,065/14,009 High Manchester Township High School F NJ #290/399 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Manchester Township School District
NCES district ID
3409450
Math proficiency
25% ▼ -17.00%
Reading proficiency
44% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income
$38,905
Composite
28.8/100
National rank
#6662
State rank
#320 of 472 in NJ
B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Leisure Village West

Score
70/100
State rank
#261
US rank
#7714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Leisure Village West, NJ
County
Ocean · 586,991 people
City population
34,290
Metro
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
Population (ZIP)
34,290
Household income
$55,000
Rent vs Own
12.1% rent · 87.9% own
Severe rent burden
11% of renters

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
586,991 people
By 2030
581,403 · -1.0%
By 2040
564,913 · -3.8%
By 2050
538,149 · -8.3%
By 2075
468,845 · -20.1%
By 2100
350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (87%)
Race & ethnicity
White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry
Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
Foreign-born
11% · Canada, China
Languages at home
88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

2024 margin
Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
2008→2024 swing
-17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
All cycles
2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

1 event — show timeline
  • 2026-06-01 Listed $239,000 MOMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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