5670 Hillside Trl · Newburgh, IN 47630

$349,950

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,514 sqft · Land · 87 Days on market

Built 2026 10,019 sqft lot $139/sqft · at area comps Est $366k · at est. ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 5670 Hillside Trail, a beautiful new construction home located in a newly developed subdivision just off Sharon Road in Newburgh. This two-story, vinyl-sided home offers 4 spacious bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, designed with modern living in mind. The open and functional layout features a completely applianced kitchen highlighted by quartz countertops, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Quartz vanity tops carry the upscale feel into the bathrooms. Enjoy outdoor living on the large wood deck, ideal for relaxing or hosting guests. Additional features include a 2-car attached garage and a prime location offering both convenience and a neighborhood setting. With quality finishes throughout and thoughtful design, this home is move-in ready and waiting for its first owner.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Large wood deck
• Prime location

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME
• COMPLETELY APPLIANCED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE WOOD DECK
• PRIME LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-429 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (17.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (28.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (28.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.9% in Newburgh — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#21 in IN, #1,922 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Warrick County School Corporation (suburban): math 54% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #24 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 395 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 249 units permitted in Warrick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warrick County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,786 (28.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.26%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $366,214
• List price: $349,950
• Delta: -4.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-70,706
• Equity at exit: $52,179

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-36,062
• Equity at exit: $30,257

Cash invested: $97,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 47630

• Rents YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 395
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,518 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$437 /mo · $5,249/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $-429

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,061

Max offer price $287,827

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-187	-5% $-308	+0% $-429	+5% $-550	+10% $-671
Rent	-10% $-628	-5% $-529	+0% $-429	+5% $-330	+10% $-230
Rate	-1.0pp $-253	-0.5pp $-340	base $-429	+0.5pp $-520	+1.0pp $-612

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,488
• Closing costs: $10,498
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5041 E Sherwood Dr Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.5	2077	$2,350	$1.13	15d	1	0.71mi
603 W Water St Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	2810	$3,700	$1.32	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $349,950 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,950 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,950 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,950 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,950 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $349,950 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $354,950 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $354,950 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $354,950 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $354,950 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $354,950 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $354,950 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $354,950 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $354,950 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $354,950 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $354,950 797-char remark

    Show marketing remark (797 chars)

    Welcome to 5670 Hillside Trail, a beautiful new construction home located in a newly developed subdivision just off Sharon Road in Newburgh. This two-story, vinyl-sided home offers 4 spacious bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, designed with modern living in mind. The open and functional layout features a completely applianced kitchen highlighted by quartz countertops, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Quartz vanity tops carry the upscale feel into the bathrooms. Enjoy outdoor living on the large wood deck, ideal for relaxing or hosting guests. Additional features include a 2-car attached garage and a prime location offering both convenience and a neighborhood setting. With quality finishes throughout and thoughtful design, this home is move-in ready and waiting for its first owner.

17. 2026-03-25
    listed $359,950 Active 797-char remark

    Show marketing remark (797 chars)

    Welcome to 5670 Hillside Trail, a beautiful new construction home located in a newly developed subdivision just off Sharon Road in Newburgh. This two-story, vinyl-sided home offers 4 spacious bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, designed with modern living in mind. The open and functional layout features a completely applianced kitchen highlighted by quartz countertops, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Quartz vanity tops carry the upscale feel into the bathrooms. Enjoy outdoor living on the large wood deck, ideal for relaxing or hosting guests. Additional features include a 2-car attached garage and a prime location offering both convenience and a neighborhood setting. With quality finishes throughout and thoughtful design, this home is move-in ready and waiting for its first owner.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,214
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,603
• − Property taxes: −$5,249
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,417
• − Management: −$2,417
• − Depreciation: −$10,180
• Taxable loss: −$11,402
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,736
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,415/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warrick County School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1812390
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $62,801
• Composite: 49.38/100
• National rank: #2014
• State rank: #24 of 301 in IN

Livability — Newburgh

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #21
• US rank: #1922

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Warrick County · 39,818 people
• City population: 39,818
• Metro: Evansville, IN-KY
• Population (ZIP): 39,818
• Household income: $94,162
• Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 770.0

Population outlook (Warrick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,569 people
• By 2030: 68,404 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 71,131 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 72,743 · +9.3%
• By 2075: 76,088 · +14.3%
• By 2100: 72,261 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warrick

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.2) · D 34.1% · R 64.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -30.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.2 2020: R+27.8 2016: R+33.9 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.44%
• Current HPI: 185.7643
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.69%
• Metro: Evansville, IN-KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

-1.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $354,950 IRMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $359,950 IRMLS

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $17 · -3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.