303 Davidson St · Newton, TX 75966

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 884 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1960 0.39 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

2 bedrooms, 1 bath home on large lot. Located in the heart of Newton TX! If you are looking for a fixer-upper or a small home centrally located, this one might be the one for you!

Key facts

• 0.39 acre lot
• Listed 45 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Metal roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window unit cooling
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $214 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($852 rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,355 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Newton ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #661 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Newton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.11%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.46% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $23,071
• Equity at exit: $30,922

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.36×
• Total profit: $61,132
• Equity at exit: $49,016

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75966

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $852 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,096/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $581

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $251	-5% $232	+0% $214	+5% $196	+10% $177
Rent	-10% $147	-5% $180	+0% $214	+5% $248	+10% $281
Rate	-1.0pp $247	-0.5pp $231	base $214	+0.5pp $197	+1.0pp $180

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $65,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $65,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    listed $65,000 Active 179-char remark
18. 2020-09-18
    soldstatus
19. 2005-03-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,096 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,190 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$94/yr (+$8/mo · 8.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,227
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$1,096
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$818
• − Management: −$818
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $1,638
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$393
• After-tax cash flow: $2,175/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832730
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $34,557
• Composite: 24.26/100
• National rank: #7719
• State rank: #661 of 826 in TX

Livability — Newton

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1355
• US rank: #23337

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newton, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,773

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,123 people
• By 2030: 12,567 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 11,431 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 10,393 · -20.8%
• By 2075: 8,230 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 6,038 · -54.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 20% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.6% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.4pp toward R · 2008: -32.2pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+60.9 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+43.3 2008: R+32.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.46%
• Current HPI: 153.3331
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $65,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2020-09-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-03-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,096 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.