4334 Fm 2137 · Bullard, TX 75757

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,421 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1970 $141/sqft · 35% below area Est $309k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country feel as out of city limits, but close enough to everything that Bullard has to offer including award winning schools. Many possibilities at this great price including starter or retirement home or even rental property. See it for yourself today.

Key facts

• Wooded background
• Backyard
• Screened porch

Tags

• CLOSET SPACE
• MATURE SHADE TREES
• PEACEFUL PRIVATE SETTING
• BACKYARD
• WOODED BACKGROUND
• SCREENED PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single family detached residence; One story
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Screened porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Window unit(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Screened porch

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $97 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (10.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (10.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.5% in Bullard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#91 in TX, #3,180 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Bullard ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #48 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bullard El (math 61% / reading 61%, grade B, #368 of 4,322 statewide, top 9%, 434 students, 36% FRL); Bullard Int (math 66% / reading 50%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 435 students, 26% FRL); Bullard H S (math 57% / reading 68%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 848 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 585 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,494 (10.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.08%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $309,172
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -35.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-26,221
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-14,929
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75757

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 585
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,785 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,177/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,662

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $210	-5% $154	+0% $97	+5% $41	+10% $-16
Rent	-10% $-44	-5% $27	+0% $97	+5% $168	+10% $238
Rate	-1.0pp $198	-0.5pp $148	base $97	+0.5pp $45	+1.0pp $-7

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $199,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,900 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on marketlisting id $199,900 Active 3 DOM
13. 2016-03-01
    soldstatus
14. 2016-02-26
    soldstatus 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Country feel as out of city limits, but close enough to everything that Bullard has to offer including award winning schools. Many possibilities at this great price including starter or retirement home or even rental property. See it for yourself today.

15. 2015-12-23
    listed $79,900 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Country feel as out of city limits, but close enough to everything that Bullard has to offer including award winning schools. Many possibilities at this great price including starter or retirement home or even rental property. See it for yourself today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,177 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,658 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,482/yr (+$123/mo · 68.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,419
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,177
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,714
• − Management: −$1,714
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$2,197
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$527
• After-tax cash flow: $1,693/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullard ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812060
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,026
• Composite: 53.66/100
• National rank: #1433
• State rank: #48 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bullard

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #3180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,977

Population outlook (Cherokee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,949 people
• By 2030: 51,984 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 51,780 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 51,085 · -1.7%
• By 2075: 47,418 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 39,464 · -24.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Cherokee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.3% · R 80.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.5pp toward R · 2008: -43.2pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+55.8 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+43.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.57%
• Current HPI: 189.5215
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+150.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $199,900 GTAR
• 2016-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-02-26 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2015-12-23 Listed $79,900 GTAR

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,177 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.