12602 Paradise View Ct · Willis, TX 77318

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Manufactured public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2019 10,820 sqft lot Est $135k · 48% over $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Must see this FISHERMAN'S DREAM in PARADISE VIEW. Check out this fantastic opportunity and great value for this newer 2019 manufactured home on Lake Conroe. 3 bedrooms. 2 bathrooms. Modern finishes and colors inside with beautiful electric fireplace unit. All Appliances INCLUDED! Including a backup Propane Gas GENERATOR. 2 Car Carport. Multiple large storage buildings. Oversized 10,000 sq. ft+ property on a quiet and peaceful cul-de-sac street. right across from the boat launch on Lake Conroe. Schedule your appointment TODAY! Will not last long.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2019

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Paradise Cove CIA association; Annual association fee of $100; Association amenities include a boat ramp

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Carport with 2 spaces
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Has view; Block foundation; Composition roof; Built in 2019
• Construction: Cement siding and wood siding
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Fully fenced back yard; Porch; Patio; Private yard; Storage shed/workshop; Shed(s); Workshop; Views; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First level) — 17x13; Bedroom (First level) — 13x9; Bedroom (First level) — 13x8
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Electric fireplace; Double vanity; Kitchen island; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Living/dining room; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup; Utility room (First level) — 5x5

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $236 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (9.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,967 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.05%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $135,432
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15185 Ridgepoint Cir	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-11%)	4mo	$120,000	$99	74
9871 Arbor Oak	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-11%)	2mo	$70,000	$58	69
8786 Scarlet Oak	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-11%)	1mo	$62,900	$52	67
11614 Vistawood St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-11%)	3mo	$139,900	$115	66
13161 Enchanted Vis	0.41mi	3/3.0	1,440 (+5%)	11mo	$295,000	$205	59
13236 Enchanted Vis	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (-11%)	1mo	$175,000	$144	59
13253 Enchanted Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-12%)	2mo	$72,000	$60	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-22,818
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-21,494
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,820 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $741/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,521

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9743 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	3d	1	0.23mi
9745 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	44d	1	0.23mi
11555 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	44d	1	0.41mi
11559 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,490	$1.49	44d	1	0.42mi
11561 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,530	$1.53	44d	1	0.43mi
14190 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	4d	1	0.51mi
14210 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,850	$1.15	4d	1	0.55mi
14214 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	44d	1	0.55mi
14156 Shadow Bay Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,195	$1.53	1d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr
• Likely covers: gaselectric

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Pending 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   status $200,000 Pending 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $200,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $741 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,660 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,919/yr (+$243/mo · 393.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,836
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$741
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,747
• − Management: −$1,747
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$516
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$124
• After-tax cash flow: $2,951/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+66.7% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Coming Soon $200,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2025-04-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-04-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-04-21 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-04-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-04-05 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2022-01-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-01-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-12-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-12-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-12-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-11-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-11-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-11-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-10-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-09-07 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2021-08-16 Price Changed $193,000 HARMLS
• 2021-07-06 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-06-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-06-23 Listed $198,000 HARMLS
• 2016-09-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-09-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-07-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-07-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-04-01 Price Changed $40,000 HARMLS
• 2016-03-29 Listed $30,000 HARMLS
• 2006-01-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-08-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2002-07-01 Listed $120,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $741 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.