343 Stephens · Lake City, TX 78368

$124,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1985 10,778 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Water Front lake house in Lake City, Tx (Mathis) with lots of great features just needing your personal touch. Whether you are looking to move or a second home this home can be the one. Newer Water well, Septic and HVAC. Just needs cosmetic work and this will be the perfect get away Lake front property. House square footage is larger than county records, sf is about 1,300. Remeasure in being scheduled.

Key facts

• Hvac
• Septic
• Lake front property

Tags

• WATER FRONT LAKE HOUSE
• NEWER WATER WELL
• SEPTIC
• HVAC
• LAKE FRONT PROPERTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $153 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,180 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Mathis ISD (town): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #528 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $125k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,406 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.26%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $34,216
• Equity at exit: $66,191

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.78×
• Total profit: $97,183
• Equity at exit: $110,612

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78368

• Home prices YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,217 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,219/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,024

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $124,900 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $124,900 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $124,900 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $124,900 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,900 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 72 DOM
16. 2026-03-19
    listed $124,900 Active 405-char remark

    Show marketing remark (405 chars)

    Water Front lake house in Lake City, Tx (Mathis) with lots of great features just needing your personal touch. Whether you are looking to move or a second home this home can be the one. Newer Water well, Septic and HVAC. Just needs cosmetic work and this will be the perfect get away Lake front property. House square footage is larger than county records, sf is about 1,300. Remeasure in being scheduled.

17. 2025-07-21
    soldstatus
18. 2025-07-18
    soldstatus Closed 584-char remark

    Show marketing remark (584 chars)

    Tucked away by the lake, this three bedroom and one bath property offers a unique opportunity for those with a vision to transform and restore. With character and untapped potential, this gem is waiting for someone to breathe new life into it. The setting is unbeatable and promises stunning sunrises and peaceful evenings. While the property may need a little TLC, it offers a rare chance to craft a space that truly reflects your personality and style. Whether you're looking for a renovation project or simply a getaway with authentic charm, this is an investment in possibility.

19. 2025-07-08
    historical Active Option Contract 584-char remark

    Show marketing remark (584 chars)

    Tucked away by the lake, this three bedroom and one bath property offers a unique opportunity for those with a vision to transform and restore. With character and untapped potential, this gem is waiting for someone to breathe new life into it. The setting is unbeatable and promises stunning sunrises and peaceful evenings. While the property may need a little TLC, it offers a rare chance to craft a space that truly reflects your personality and style. Whether you're looking for a renovation project or simply a getaway with authentic charm, this is an investment in possibility.

20. 2025-06-18
    price $42,000 584-char remark

    Show marketing remark (584 chars)

    Tucked away by the lake, this three bedroom and one bath property offers a unique opportunity for those with a vision to transform and restore. With character and untapped potential, this gem is waiting for someone to breathe new life into it. The setting is unbeatable and promises stunning sunrises and peaceful evenings. While the property may need a little TLC, it offers a rare chance to craft a space that truly reflects your personality and style. Whether you're looking for a renovation project or simply a getaway with authentic charm, this is an investment in possibility.

21. 2025-06-12
    listed $47,000 Active 584-char remark

    Show marketing remark (584 chars)

    Tucked away by the lake, this three bedroom and one bath property offers a unique opportunity for those with a vision to transform and restore. With character and untapped potential, this gem is waiting for someone to breathe new life into it. The setting is unbeatable and promises stunning sunrises and peaceful evenings. While the property may need a little TLC, it offers a rare chance to craft a space that truly reflects your personality and style. Whether you're looking for a renovation project or simply a getaway with authentic charm, this is an investment in possibility.

22. 2000-05-07
    listed $64,000
23. 1999-12-02
    soldstatus $55,500
24. 1998-04-02
    listed $57,900
25. 1994-09-01
    soldstatus $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,219 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,286 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,067/yr (+$89/mo · 87.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,609
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,219
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,169
• − Management: −$1,169
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$201
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$48
• After-tax cash flow: $1,886/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mathis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829400
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,954
• Composite: 29.47/100
• National rank: #6509
• State rank: #528 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1180
• US rank: #20606

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,474

Population outlook (San Patricio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,538 people
• By 2030: 79,575 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 87,670 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 96,107 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 117,984 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 130,010 · +72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% White 33% Two or more races 32%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · San Patricio

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.4% · R 67.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.6pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+16.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.39%
• Current HPI: 98.6577
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+290.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $124,900 CBMLS
• 2025-07-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-07-18 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2025-07-08 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-06-18 Price Changed $42,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-12 Listed $47,000 NTREIS
• 2000-05-07 Listed $64,000 CBMLS
• 1999-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $55,500 Public Records
• 1998-04-02 Listed $57,900 CBMLS
• 1994-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,219 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.