121 Elder Dr SW · Hardwick, GA 31061

$89,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 748 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 261 Days on market

Built 1937 4.04 ac lot $120/sqft · 149% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lakefront Investment Opportunity on 4.04 Acres - Private & Peaceful Retreat! Discover the perfect blend of privacy, space, and waterfront living with this charming small home nestled on two combined lots totaling 4.04 acres. Tucked away in a quiet, secluded location, this property offers unmatched serenity and stunning natural surroundings. Over 300 feet of private lake frontage - ideal for fishing, kayaking, or simply enjoying the view Cozy home full of potential - renovate, expand, or build your dream lakefront retreat Expansive land with endless possibilities - add a second home, create a family compound, or subdivide (buyer to verify) Whether you're looking for a peaceful getaway, a smart investment, or a one-of-a-kind development opportunity, this property offers it all. Rarely does a parcel this size, with lake access and privacy, hit the market. Don't miss out - opportunities like this are few and far between!

Key facts

• Expansive land
• Secluded location
• Waterfront living

Tags

• PRIVATE LAKE FRONTAGE
• EXPANSIVE LAND
• WATERFRONT LIVING
• SECLUDED LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $269 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#102 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (town): math 13% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #152 of 174 in GA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 375 active listings in the ZIP; 202 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 261 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $6k; list at $90k implies a 1398% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1937 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 261 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1937 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.97%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $32,422
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: 177.28%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
115 2nd St SW	0.48mi	2/1.0	664 (-11%)	10mo	$54,900	$83	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $3,696
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $30,108
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31061

• Home prices YoY: -29.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,089 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $197/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $269

Break-even live

Break-even rent $749

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,900 Active 261 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 260 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 259 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 258 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 257 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 255 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,900 Active 254 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 251 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 250 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 249 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,900 Active 246 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 245 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 244 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 243 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 242 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,900 Active 241 DOM
17. 2025-12-16
    price $89,900 943-char remark

    Show marketing remark (943 chars)

    Lakefront Investment Opportunity on 4.04 Acres - Private & Peaceful Retreat! Discover the perfect blend of privacy, space, and waterfront living with this charming small home nestled on two combined lots totaling 4.04 acres. Tucked away in a quiet, secluded location, this property offers unmatched serenity and stunning natural surroundings. Over 300 feet of private lake frontage - ideal for fishing, kayaking, or simply enjoying the view Cozy home full of potential - renovate, expand, or build your dream lakefront retreat Expansive land with endless possibilities - add a second home, create a family compound, or subdivide (buyer to verify) Whether you're looking for a peaceful getaway, a smart investment, or a one-of-a-kind development opportunity, this property offers it all. Rarely does a parcel this size, with lake access and privacy, hit the market. Don't miss out - opportunities like this are few and far between!

18. 2025-10-01
    listed $99,000 New 943-char remark

    Show marketing remark (943 chars)

    Lakefront Investment Opportunity on 4.04 Acres - Private & Peaceful Retreat! Discover the perfect blend of privacy, space, and waterfront living with this charming small home nestled on two combined lots totaling 4.04 acres. Tucked away in a quiet, secluded location, this property offers unmatched serenity and stunning natural surroundings. Over 300 feet of private lake frontage - ideal for fishing, kayaking, or simply enjoying the view Cozy home full of potential - renovate, expand, or build your dream lakefront retreat Expansive land with endless possibilities - add a second home, create a family compound, or subdivide (buyer to verify) Whether you're looking for a peaceful getaway, a smart investment, or a one-of-a-kind development opportunity, this property offers it all. Rarely does a parcel this size, with lake access and privacy, hit the market. Don't miss out - opportunities like this are few and far between!

19. 2023-08-23
    soldstatus $6,000 Sold 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    2.55 acres of unimproved land. Buyer will need to contact the county (Baldwin) for code regulations on a new home structure on the property.

20. 2023-08-17
    status Back On Market 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    2.55 acres of unimproved land. Buyer will need to contact the county (Baldwin) for code regulations on a new home structure on the property.

21. 2023-06-08
    status Under Contract 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    2.55 acres of unimproved land. Buyer will need to contact the county (Baldwin) for code regulations on a new home structure on the property.

22. 2023-05-21
    listed $10,000 New 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    2.55 acres of unimproved land. Buyer will need to contact the county (Baldwin) for code regulations on a new home structure on the property.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $197 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $827 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$630/yr (+$53/mo · 320.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,068
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$197
• − Insurance: −$1,247
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,045
• − Management: −$1,045
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $1,882
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$452
• After-tax cash flow: $2,771/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 1300210
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $35,615
• Composite: 13.61/100
• National rank: #9508
• State rank: #152 of 174 in GA

Livability — Hardwick

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #102
• US rank: #8062

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hardwick, GA
• County: Baldwin County · 41,764 people
• City population: 41,194
• Metro: Milledgeville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 41,764
• Household income: $54,263
• Rent vs Own: 40.6% rent · 59.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1630.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,602 people
• By 2030: 45,481 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 44,310 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 42,129 · -7.6%
• By 2075: 36,819 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 29,320 · -35.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 43% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.6% · R 50.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.8pp toward R · 2008: 4.6pp · 2024: -2.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.2 2020: D+1.3 2016: D+1.7 2012: D+5.5 2008: D+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.16%
• Current HPI: 241.3758
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Metro: Milledgeville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+799.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $89,900 GAMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listed $99,000 GAMLS
• 2023-08-23 Sold (MLS) $6,000 GAMLS
• 2023-08-17 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2023-06-08 Pending — GAMLS
• 2023-05-21 Listed $10,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $197 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.