6604 Winthrop Dr · Fayetteville, NC 28311

$199,500

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,577 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1965 Est $218k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming tri-level home in pristine condition offering over 1,800 sqft of living space in Pine Forest High School district, minutes away from Fort Bragg, HWY 295 and all shopping/amenities. This home, property of the same owner since 1971, has been maintained with incredible love and care over the years. Beautiful hardwood floors run throughout the main and upper levels (including under the carpet in 2 of the bedrooms). The main level features a formal living room that flows seamlessly into the dining which opens to the kitchen, creating an inviting layout ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The lower level boosts a spacious den and a gorgeous sunroom filled with natural light,

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1965
• Listed 8 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 covered space
• Utilities: Public water; Holding tank or septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Multi/split levels; Brick veneer construction; Property zoned R10 - Residential District; Cleared lot
• Construction: Brick veneer
• Exterior features: Patio; Privacy fencing; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Freezer; Free-standing freezer; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 2 half bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Window coverings and blinds; Storage; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry (washer and dryer included)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($322/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.8% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: William T Brown Elementary (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,033 of 1,410 statewide, top 76%, 598 students, 100% FRL); Pine Forest Middle (math 38% / reading 49%, grade D, #182 of 475 statewide, top 40%, 738 students, 56% FRL); Pine Forest High (math 73% / reading 51%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 1,572 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 55% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 363 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,171 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.58%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $217,626
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6561 Winthrop Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,504 (-5%)	2mo	$147,000	$98	79
621 Woodburn Dr	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,583 (+0%)	22mo	$218,000	$138	67
940 Carnegie Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+1%)	3mo	$233,000	$146	66
6616 Winthrop Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,651 (+5%)	23mo	$235,000	$142	65
6601 Wofford Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,638 (+4%)	1mo	$170,000	$104	65
609 Clayton Dr	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,426 (-10%)	16mo	$187,000	$131	58
6578 Winthrop Dr	0.10mi	3/1.5	1,350 (-14%)	15mo	$193,000	$143	53
883 De Paul Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,502 (-5%)	6mo	$211,000	$140	51
6158 Pine St	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,461 (-7%)	4mo	$187,000	$128	47
653 Woodburn St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,359 (-14%)	14mo	$170,000	$125	43
6148 Pine St	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-1%)	22mo	$178,500	$114	41
1114 Reflex St	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,758 (+12%)	10mo	$249,900	$142	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-30,963
• Equity at exit: $29,746

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-26,160
• Equity at exit: $17,249

Cash invested: $55,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28311

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,632 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,046
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,595/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,598

Max offer price $199,500

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $140	-5% $83	+0% $27	+5% $-30	+10% $-86
Rent	-10% $-102	-5% $-38	+0% $27	+5% $91	+10% $156
Rate	-1.0pp $127	-0.5pp $78	base $27	+0.5pp $-25	+1.0pp $-77

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,875
• Closing costs: $5,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
633 Winthrop Ct Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,500	$1.36	15d	1	0.22mi
644 Clayton Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1150	$1,100	$0.96	25d	1	0.29mi
1009 Louisburg Pl Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1362	$1,550	$1.14	25d	1	0.44mi
1018 Appalachin Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1118	$1,700	$1.52	25d	1	0.46mi
1017 Xavier Ct Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,595	$1.14	25d	1	0.49mi
3401 Connection Dr Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.5	2023	$2,295	$1.13	25d	1	0.53mi
806 Carnegie Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1118	$1,400	$1.25	25d	1	0.71mi
3405 Revolution Rd Fayetteville, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	977	$1,587	$1.62	15d	7	1.01mi
452 Clover Hill Pl Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1701	$1,700	$1.00	15d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $199,500 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,500 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,500 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,500 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,500 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-14
   listed $199,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,595 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,636 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$41/yr (+$3/mo · 2.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,581
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,175
• − Property taxes: −$1,595
• − Insurance: −$998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,566
• − Management: −$1,566
• − Depreciation: −$5,804
• Taxable loss: −$3,124
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$750
• After-tax cash flow: $1,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #4031

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 226,118
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 36,629
• Household income: $62,170
• Rent vs Own: 47.5% rent · 52.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1645.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 38% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.88%
• Current HPI: 203.0731
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.82%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $199,500 LPRMLS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,595 · +67.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.