5874 Thrush Dr · Houston, TX 77033

$155,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,239 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1960 7,579 sqft lot Est $185k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special – Priced to Sell! Don’t miss this incredible opportunity to add value and build equity. This property is priced to sell and offers endless potential for investors, flippers, or buyers looking for their next renovation project. With solid bones and plenty of room for improvements, this home is the perfect fix-and-flip or rental investment. Conveniently located with easy access to major highways, shopping, and local amenities. Bring your vision and transform this property into something special. Opportunities like this don’t last long!

Key facts

• Solid bones
• Easy access
• Local amenities

Tags

• SOLID BONES
• EASY ACCESS
• LOCAL AMENITIES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story layout (all main rooms listed on the first floor)
• Construction: Built in 1960; Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Corner lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12x12); Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (each approx. 10x10)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $300 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mading El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 339 students, 96% FRL); Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Sterling H S (math 16% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 1,421 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 18% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 345 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,809/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($38k/yr) (locally 1728% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.30%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $184,611
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5879 Belneath St	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-3%)	1mo	$95,000	$79	83
5842 Beldart St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,185 (-4%)	1mo	$194,700	$164	82
5822 Beldart St	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-3%)	2mo	$217,000	$181	77
5962 Belcrest St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,172 (-5%)	2mo	$175,000	$149	70
5831 Lyndhurst Dr	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,212 (-2%)	2mo	$105,000	$87	66
6107 Belmark St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,205 (-3%)	4mo	$175,000	$145	64
5774 Belarbor St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,150 (-7%)	4mo	$89,000	$77	62
5602 Beldart St	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,173 (-5%)	3mo	$160,000	$136	56
5639 Westover St	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,289 (+4%)	3mo	$230,000	$178	54
6122 Beldart St	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (+6%)	3mo	$199,000	$151	54
5707 Lyndhurst Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,329 (+7%)	1mo	$200,000	$150	52
5951 Willow Glen Dr	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,112 (-10%)	1mo	$105,000	$94	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,370
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $43,391
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77033

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 345
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,809 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$252 /mo · $3,023/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $300

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,430

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $388	-5% $344	+0% $300	+5% $256	+10% $212
Rent	-10% $157	-5% $229	+0% $300	+5% $372	+10% $443
Rate	-1.0pp $378	-0.5pp $340	base $300	+0.5pp $260	+1.0pp $219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5767 Belcrest St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1480	$1,790	$1.21	45d	1	0.44mi
5942 Ridgeway Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1490	$2,250	$1.51	45d	1	0.60mi
5623 Bellfort St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1320	$1,700	$1.29	16d	1	0.77mi
9509 Merle St Unit 9509A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1404	$1,500	$1.07	45d	1	0.78mi
5818 Glenhurst Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,750	$1.21	1d	1	0.80mi
5407 Thrush Dr Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1407	$1,495	$1.06	15d	1	0.83mi
6419 Belarbor St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1240	$1,425	$1.15	45d	1	0.98mi
5036 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1472	$2,050	$1.39	45d	1	1.08mi
5314 Northridge Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,185	$1.36	45d	1	1.08mi
5222 Northridge Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,850	$1.42	26d	1	1.17mi
5954 Doolittle Blvd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,575	$1.15	45d	1	1.18mi
5408 Groveton St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1472	$1,983	$1.35	1d	1	1.20mi
4918 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	45d	1	1.29mi
7918 Jutland Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	996	$1,295	$1.30	45d	1	1.32mi
10902 Faircroft Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1308	$1,455	$1.11	0d	1	1.34mi
4810 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,650	$1.42	45d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $155,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 557-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $155,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,023 · $252/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,023 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,713
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$3,023
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,737
• − Management: −$1,737
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $1,249
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$300
• After-tax cash flow: $3,301/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,154
• Household income: $38,071
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1728.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 17% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.49%
• Current HPI: 212.6472
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2016-11-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-07-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,023 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.