403 Fir St · Wellston, OK 74881

$110,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1920 7,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained home with mock fireplace, newer windows, metal roof, nice wood deck in back and full stockade fenced yard.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Wood deck
• Newer windows

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• NEWER WINDOWS
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• WOOD DECK
• STORM SHELTER
• NEW ATTIC INSULATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Interior lot; Homestead: No; Legal addition: Wellston
• Financial info: Loan qualification: Yes
• HOA & community: No mandatory association dues

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete parking; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Storm doors (energy feature)
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-level property; Residential property; Existing property
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof; Conventional foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Open deck; Storage; Wood fencing; Below-ground outdoor storm shelter

Interior

• Kitchen: Freestanding gas range/oven; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Other cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Window treatments; Mock fireplace; Inside utility (other room)
• Laundry & utility: Inside utility; Tankless hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-29 ($-352/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $105k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $82k (25.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $82k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.1% in Wellston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#248 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Wellston (rural): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #59 of 270 in OK (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wellston Es (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #168 of 845 statewide, top 24%, 259 students, 0% FRL); Wellston Ms (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #129 of 345 statewide, top 42%, 126 students, 0% FRL); Wellston Hs (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #48 of 447 statewide, top 14%, 129 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 46% district-wide (46 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (9.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $110k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,311 (25.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.14%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $41,760
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
811 Ash St	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	760 (+6%)	10mo	$44,000	$58	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $51,656
• Equity at exit: $92,345

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.94×
• Total profit: $152,153
• Equity at exit: $192,374

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74881

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $823 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $683/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$173
• Net cashflow: $-29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $860

Max offer price $104,816

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $33	-5% $2	+0% $-29	+5% $-60	+10% $-92
Rent	-10% $-94	-5% $-62	+0% $-29	+5% $3	+10% $36
Rate	-1.0pp $26	-0.5pp $-1	base $-29	+0.5pp $-58	+1.0pp $-87

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $110,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $110,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $110,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $110,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $110,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $110,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-04-22
    listed $110,000 Active
18. 2022-03-30
    soldstatus $65,500
19. 2022-03-25
    soldstatus $65,500 Sold 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Well maintained home with mock fireplace, newer windows, metal roof, nice wood deck in back and full stockade fenced yard.

20. 2022-03-05
    status Pending 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Well maintained home with mock fireplace, newer windows, metal roof, nice wood deck in back and full stockade fenced yard.

21. 2022-02-20
    listed $69,000 Active 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Well maintained home with mock fireplace, newer windows, metal roof, nice wood deck in back and full stockade fenced yard.

22. 2022-02-01
    soldstatus $47,500
23. 2018-03-03
    status Pending 59-char remark

    Show marketing remark (59 chars)

    Great Home For Sale in Wellston *** Agent Related to Seller

24. 2018-03-02
    soldstatus $49,000 Sold 59-char remark

    Show marketing remark (59 chars)

    Great Home For Sale in Wellston *** Agent Related to Seller

25. 2018-03-02
    soldstatus $49,000

    Show marketing remark (59 chars)

    Great Home For Sale in Wellston *** Agent Related to Seller

26. 2018-02-16
    listed $55,000 Active 59-char remark

    Show marketing remark (59 chars)

    Great Home For Sale in Wellston *** Agent Related to Seller

27. 2007-10-05
    soldstatus $36,000
28. 2007-09-27
    soldstatus $36,000
29. 2007-09-11
    listed $36,000
30. 2006-07-31
    soldstatus $22,000
31. 2006-07-28
    soldstatus $22,500
32. 2006-05-17
    listed $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $683 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $990 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$307/yr (+$26/mo · 44.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,877
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$683
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$790
• − Management: −$790
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$2,298
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$551
• After-tax cash flow: $199/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wellston
• NCES district ID: 4032280
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,907
• Composite: 25.69/100
• National rank: #7390
• State rank: #59 of 270 in OK

Livability — Wellston

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #248
• US rank: #16617

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing B- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wellston, OK
• Population (ZIP): 5,273

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,104 people
• By 2030: 36,435 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 36,696 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 36,216 · +0.3%
• By 2075: 35,057 · -2.9%
• By 2100: 31,333 · -13.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.3) · D 17.5% · R 80.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.4pp toward R · 2008: -49.8pp · 2024: -63.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.3 2020: R+63.2 2016: R+60.1 2012: R+49.0 2008: R+49.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.15%
• Current HPI: 308.8101
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+340.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $110,000 MLSOK
• 2022-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $65,500 Public Records
• 2022-03-25 Sold (MLS) $65,500 MLSOK
• 2022-03-05 Pending — MLSOK
• 2022-02-20 Listed $69,000 MLSOK
• 2022-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records
• 2018-03-03 Pending — MLSOK
• 2018-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 2018-03-02 Sold (MLS) $49,000 MLSOK
• 2018-02-16 Listed $55,000 MLSOK
• 2007-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records
• 2007-09-27 Sold (MLS) $36,000 MLSOK
• 2007-09-11 Listed $36,000 MLSOK
• 2006-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records
• 2006-07-28 Sold (MLS) $22,500 MLSOK
• 2006-05-17 Listed $25,000 MLSOK

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $683 · +14.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.