Prosperity Plan · Porter, TX 77365

$431,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,286 sqft · SingleFamily · 39 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.3/30.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A study off the foyer welcomes you into the two-story Prosperity duet home. The kitchen features a large island and walk-in pantry, flowing into the dining area and great room with 11-foot ceilings and tall windows that showcase the covered patio. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a luxurious bath with oversized shower or soaking tub and shower. A mudroom leads to the 2-car garage, and upstairs, a loft and secondary bedrooms complete the home.

Key facts

• Soaking tub
• Covered patio
• Large island

Tags

• LARGE ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• COVERED PATIO
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• OVERSIZED SHOWER
• SOAKING TUB

🏗️ New construction. The $431,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $489,466.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $432k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (39.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (45.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (45.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1540 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 82d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($419k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,609 (45.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.48% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.25%
• DSCR: 0.41
• GRM: 17.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $489,466
• List price: $431,990
• Delta: -11.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22131 Prater Ridge Ln	0.10mi	4/3.5	2,368 (+4%)	1mo	$459,990	$194	82
22507 Boyden Cavern Ct	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,263 (-1%)	1mo	$375,990	$166	80
8743 Mancos Valley Ct	0.25mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,360 (+3%)	0mo	$459,990	$195	75
22635 Big Stump Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,399 (+5%)	2mo	$545,500	$227	70
22431 Sawmill Pass Ln	0.22mi	4/3.5	2,488 (+9%)	1mo	$499,900	$201	68
9034 Cliff Palace Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,990 (-13%)	0mo	$442,640	$222	68
8914 Blackwoods Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,990 (-13%)	1mo	$425,000	$214	65
9531 Sierra Crest Ln	0.14mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,988 (-13%)	0mo	$419,990	$211	64
8927 Blackwoods Ct	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,953 (-15%)	0mo	$399,000	$204	61
8951 Blackwoods Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,953 (-15%)	0mo	$414,292	$212	60
22719 Sheep Creek Ct	0.43mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,514 (+10%)	1mo	$613,180	$244	55
18299 Hollyberry Ct	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,608 (+14%)	2mo	$220,000	$84	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -43.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-183,030
• Equity at exit: $72,981

10-year hold

• IRR: -87.3%
• Equity multiple: -1.20×
• Total profit: $-301,298
• Equity at exit: $42,320

Cash invested: $137,050 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 159 active · 103 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.5 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $464,900 ($205/sqft)
• Median days on market: 114 d
• This list price: 35% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77365

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 1540
• Price-to-rent: 15.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,366 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,567
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$612 /mo · $7,342/yr
• Insurance: −$204
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $-1,580

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,366

Max offer price $260,861

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,242	-5% $-1,411	+0% $-1,580	+5% $-1,749	+10% $-1,918
Rent	-10% $-1,767	-5% $-1,673	+0% $-1,580	+5% $-1,486	+10% $-1,393
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,333	-0.5pp $-1,455	base $-1,580	+0.5pp $-1,707	+1.0pp $-1,836

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $122,366
• Closing costs: $14,684
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18116 Red Pine Ct Porter, TX	4.0	2.0	1916	$2,000	$1.04	64d	1	0.19mi
22079 Misty Moss Ct Porter, TX	3.0	2.5	1716	$1,800	$1.05	0d	1	0.22mi
18154 Windy Oaks Ct Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1906	$2,275	$1.19	81d	1	0.27mi
22282 Junction Peak Dr Porter, TX	4.0	3.0	2370	$3,150	$1.33	12d	1	0.30mi
22282 Junction Peak Dr Porter, TX	4.0	3.0	2370	$3,150	$1.33	0d	1	0.30mi
18167 Woodsdale Ct Porter, TX	4.0	2.5	1608	$1,749	$1.09	84d	1	0.37mi
18442 Hollow Oaks Cir Porter, TX	4.0	2.5	2088	$1,785	$0.85	35d	1	0.45mi
18450 Hollow Oaks Cir Porter, TX	3.0	2.5	2088	$2,055	$0.98	125d	1	0.47mi
21746 Deep Pines Dr Porter, TX	4.0	2.5	2088	$2,200	$1.05	100d	1	0.59mi
21613 Anvil Ln Porter, TX	4.0	3.0	2117	$1,716	$0.81	85d	1	1.00mi
19114 Warlander Ct Porter, TX	4.0	2.0	1810	$1,935	$1.07	1d	1	1.03mi
21630 Hansom Dr Porter, TX	5.0	3.0	2602	$2,056	$0.79	82d	1	1.10mi
21699 Horseshoe Dr Porter, TX	4.0	2.5	2327	$1,801	$0.77	49d	1	1.10mi
21625 Hackamore Ct Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1758	$1,920	$1.09	112d	1	1.18mi
21615 Cavallo Ln Porter, TX	5.0	2.5	2902	$2,499	$0.86	112d	1	1.24mi
19194 Shire Horse Blvd Porter, TX	4.0	2.5	2798	$2,320	$0.83	184d	1	1.27mi
7218 Greenstone Rdg Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1730	$2,655	$1.53	0d	1	1.30mi
7218 Greenstone Rdg Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1730	$2,700	$1.56	10d	1	1.30mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 9233 Soda Canyon Ln, Porter, TX 77365Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $431,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered garage spaces (2 parking spaces total)
• Home design: New construction, single-family home (Prosperity plan)
• Construction: Living area approximately 2,286Built as part of 2026 inventory (listed as Plan)

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes standard kitchen (appliances not listed)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open floor plan (new construction plan named Prosperity)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $431,990 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $431,990 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $431,990 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $431,990 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $431,990 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $431,990 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $431,990 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $431,990 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $431,990 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $431,990 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $431,990 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $431,990 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $431,990 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $431,990 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $431,990 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $431,990 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $431,990 Active 22 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $431,990 Active 21 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $431,990 Active 20 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $431,990 Active 19 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $431,990 Active 18 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $431,990 Active 17 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $431,990 Active 16 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $431,990 Active 15 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $431,990 Active 14 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $431,990 Active 13 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $431,990 Active 12 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $431,990 Active 11 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $431,990 Active 10 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $431,990 Active 9 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $431,990 Active 8 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $431,990 Active 7 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $431,990 Active 6 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $431,990 Active 5 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $431,990 Active 4 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $431,990 Active 3 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $431,990 Active 2 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on marketlisting id $431,990 Active 1 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $431,990 Active 479 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $431,990 Active 478 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $431,990 Active 477 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $431,990 Active 476 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $431,990 Active 475 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $431,990 Active 474 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $431,990 Active 473 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $431,990 Active 472 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $431,990 Active 471 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $431,990 Active 470 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $431,990 Active 469 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $431,990 Active 468 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,393
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,418
• − Property taxes: −$7,342
• − Insurance: −$3,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,271
• − Management: −$2,271
• − Depreciation: −$14,239
• Taxable loss: −$28,393
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,814
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,144/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story multi-family home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and reduces utility costs for tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

High New Caney H S F TX #1,183/1,632 Nat'l #11,797/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Porter

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 46,418
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,418
• Household income: $95,702
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 44% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.46%
• Current HPI: 225.9903
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 9233 Soda Canyon Ln, Porter, TX 77365Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $431,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered garage spaces (2 parking spaces total)
• Home design: New construction, single-family home (Prosperity plan)
• Construction: Living area approximately 2,286Built as part of 2026 inventory (listed as Plan)

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes standard kitchen (appliances not listed)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open floor plan (new construction plan named Prosperity)