Prosperity Plan · Porter, TX 77365

$431,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,286 sqft · SingleFamily · 426 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.0/30.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A study off the foyer welcomes you into the two-story Prosperity duet home. The kitchen features a large island and walk-in pantry, flowing into the dining area and great room with 11-foot ceilings and tall windows that showcase the covered patio. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a luxurious bath with oversized shower or soaking tub and shower. A mudroom leads to the 2-car garage, and upstairs, a loft and secondary bedrooms complete the home.

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Easy-entry shower
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• FIRST-FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• EASY-ENTRY SHOWER

🏗️ New construction. The $431,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $489,466.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $432k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (41.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (47.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (47.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 57% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1168 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 426 days — a 12% lower offer ($380k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,332 (47.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 426 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.47% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.82%
• DSCR: 0.38
• GRM: 17.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $489,466
• List price: $431,990
• Delta: -11.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22266 Junction Peak Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0	2,162 (-5%)	1mo	$380,990	$176	79
8772 Mancos Valley Ct	0.26mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,250 (-2%)	0mo	$470,000	$209	78
9639 Mount Brewer Ln	0.22mi	4/3.0	2,399 (+5%)	2mo	$414,990	$173	76
22318 Junction Peak Dr	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,263 (-1%)	1mo	$378,990	$167	76
18162 Windy Oaks Ct	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,140 (-6%)	1mo	$269,900	$126	73
22322 Junction Peak Dr	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,370 (+4%)	1mo	$384,990	$162	72
22238 Junction Peak Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,093 (-8%)	2mo	$447,990	$214	71
9526 Sierra Crest Ln	0.15mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,119 (-7%)	1mo	$399,990	$189	71
22643 Big Stump Dr	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,349 (+3%)	2mo	$648,406	$276	70
18147 Woodsdale Ct	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,140 (-6%)	1mo	$294,900	$138	70
8720 Mancos Valley Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,991 (-13%)	1mo	$430,000	$216	62
8483 International Falls Dr	0.58mi	4/3.5	2,607 (+14%)	1mo	$490,000	$188	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -45.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-187,085
• Equity at exit: $72,981

10-year hold

• IRR: -91.7%
• Equity multiple: -1.26×
• Total profit: $-309,753
• Equity at exit: $42,320

Cash invested: $137,050 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 135 active · 68 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.7 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $459,990 ($205/sqft)
• Median days on market: 85 d
• This list price: 35% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77365

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 1168
• Price-to-rent: 15.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,283 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,567
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$612 /mo · $7,342/yr
• Insurance: −$204
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $-1,645

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,366

Max offer price $251,399

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,307	-5% $-1,476	+0% $-1,645	+5% $-1,814	+10% $-1,983
Rent	-10% $-1,826	-5% $-1,735	+0% $-1,645	+5% $-1,555	+10% $-1,465
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,399	-0.5pp $-1,521	base $-1,645	+0.5pp $-1,772	+1.0pp $-1,901

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $122,366
• Closing costs: $14,684
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18167 Woodsdale Ct Porter, TX	4.0	2.5	1608	$1,749	$1.09	29d	1	0.37mi
18450 Hollow Oaks Cir Porter, TX	3.0	2.5	2088	$2,055	$0.98	33d	1	0.47mi
21746 Deep Pines Dr Porter, TX	4.0	2.5	2088	$2,200	$1.05	8d	1	0.59mi
21613 Anvil Ln Porter, TX	4.0	3.0	2117	$1,866	$0.88	0d	1	1.00mi
21630 Hansom Dr Porter, TX	5.0	3.0	2602	$2,156	$0.83	15d	1	1.10mi
21625 Hackamore Ct Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1758	$1,920	$1.09	20d	1	1.18mi
21615 Cavallo Ln Porter, TX	5.0	2.5	2902	$2,499	$0.86	20d	1	1.24mi
19194 Shire Horse Blvd Porter, TX	4.0	2.5	2798	$2,320	$0.83	93d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $431,990 Active 426 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $431,990 Active 424 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $431,990 Active 423 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $431,990 Active 422 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $431,990 Active 421 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $431,990 Active 418 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $431,990 Active 416 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $431,990 Active 415 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $431,990 Active 413 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $431,990 Active 411 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $431,990 Active 410 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $431,990 Active 409 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $431,990 Active 408 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $431,990 Active 407 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $431,990 Active 405 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $431,990 Active 404 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $431,990 Active 403 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $431,990 Active 402 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $431,990 Active 401 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $431,990 Active 400 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $431,990 Active 399 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $431,990 Active 398 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $431,990 Active 397 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $431,990 Active 396 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $431,990 Active 394 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    price $431,990 Active 393 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $419,990 Active 393 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $419,990 Active 392 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $419,990 Active 391 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $419,990 Active 390 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $419,990 Active 389 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $419,990 Active 388 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $419,990 Active 387 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $419,990 Active 386 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $419,990 Active 385 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $419,990 Active 384 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $419,990 Active 383 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $419,990 Active 381 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $419,990 Active 379 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $419,990 Active 378 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $419,990 Active 375 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $419,990 Active 374 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $419,990 Active 373 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $419,990 Active 372 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $419,990 Active 370 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $419,990 Active 366 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $419,990 Active 365 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $419,990 Active 364 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $419,990 Active 361 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $419,990 Active 360 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,418
• − Property taxes: −$7,342
• − Insurance: −$3,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,192
• − Management: −$2,192
• − Depreciation: −$14,239
• Taxable loss: −$29,228
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,015
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,728/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story multi-family home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and reduces utility costs for tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

High New Caney H S F TX #1,183/1,632 Nat'l #11,797/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Porter

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 46,418
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,418
• Household income: $95,702
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 44% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.46%
• Current HPI: 225.9903
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $419,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $416,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-15 Price Changed $413,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $412,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-05 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-02 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-02 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-02 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-06-04 Listed $422,990 Zillow