19395 Crestwick St · Saucier, MS 39574

$88,750

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 268 Days on market

Built 2005 0.47 ac lot Est $120k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Mobile homes allowed, no flood, no wetlands, heavily wooded, utilities to the lot line. Sold on a quit claim deed.

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Wired workshop
• 0.47 acre lot

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• LARGE FRONT COVERED PATIO
• WIRED WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $737 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 4.4% in Saucier — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#91 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 126 active listings in the ZIP; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $614 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 268 days — a 12% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,100 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 268 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.61%
• DSCR: 2.58
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $120,120
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19300 Mary Shamis Rd	0.65mi	3/1.0	840 (0%)	13mo	$120,000	$143	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $32,557
• Equity at exit: $13,233

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.57×
• Total profit: $88,701
• Equity at exit: $7,673

Cash invested: $24,850 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39574

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,595 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$465
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $238/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $737

Break-even live

Break-even rent $661

Max offer price $88,750

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $788	-5% $763	+0% $737	+5% $712	+10% $687
Rent	-10% $612	-5% $674	+0% $737	+5% $800	+10% $863
Rate	-1.0pp $782	-0.5pp $760	base $737	+0.5pp $714	+1.0pp $691

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,188
• Closing costs: $2,662
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-02-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-03
   status Active
3. 2025-12-31
   historical
4. 2025-09-13
   price $88,750
5. 2025-07-02
   price $89,000
6. 2025-05-30
   listed $94,900 Active
7. 2024-05-11
   status Pending 115-char remark

   Show marketing remark (115 chars)

   Mobile homes allowed, no flood, no wetlands, heavily wooded, utilities to the lot line. Sold on a quit claim deed.

8. 2024-05-10
   soldstatus Closed 115-char remark

   Show marketing remark (115 chars)

   Mobile homes allowed, no flood, no wetlands, heavily wooded, utilities to the lot line. Sold on a quit claim deed.

9. 2024-03-13
   listed $16,500 Active 115-char remark

   Show marketing remark (115 chars)

   Mobile homes allowed, no flood, no wetlands, heavily wooded, utilities to the lot line. Sold on a quit claim deed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $238 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $701 · $58/mo
• Expected delta: +$463/yr (+$39/mo · 194.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,971
• − Property taxes: −$238
• − Insurance: −$444
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,531
• − Management: −$1,531
• − Depreciation: −$2,582
• Taxable income: $7,838
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,881
• After-tax cash flow: $6,969/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Saucier

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #11386

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,830

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Black 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Italian 5% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.24%
• Current HPI: 206.218
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+437.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-01-03 Relisted — MLSU
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-09-13 Price Changed $88,750 MLSU
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $89,000 MLSU
• 2025-05-30 Listed $94,900 MLSU
• 2024-05-11 Pending — MLSU
• 2024-05-10 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2024-03-13 Listed $16,500 MLSU

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $238 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.