1879 Pierce Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14301

$44,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1900 5,808 sqft lot $28/sqft · 58% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1879 Pierce Avenue in Niagara Falls. This property offers a strong foundation for the right buyer, highlighted by one of the most critical upgrades already completed, a durable, long lasting metal roof that protects the home and your future investment. Bring your vision and restore this property to its full potential. The home requires a complete renovation, including kitchens, bathrooms, plumbing, electrical, and heating systems, making it an ideal opportunity for investors or experienced renovators. Due to the scope of work needed, this is a cash only sale. The seller is motivated and open to offers. Seize the opportunity to transform this property and unlock its value.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• 5,808 sq ft lot
• Built 1900

Tags

• METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $594 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.1% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,309/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 5.0% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $42,299 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.55%
• DSCR: 3.52
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $106,758
• List price: $44,999
• Delta: -57.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2233 South Ave	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,553 (-2%)	3mo	$155,000	$100	77
1329 Niagara Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,540 (-3%)	2mo	$85,000	$55	62
1739 Lockport St	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,598 (+1%)	4mo	$120,000	$75	61
1327 Willow Ave	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,444 (-9%)	1mo	$40,000	$28	58
1307 Niagara Ave	0.63mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,536 (-3%)	3mo	$95,000	$62	56
527 23rd St	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (-6%)	1mo	$154,000	$103	54
2456 South Ave	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,380 (-13%)	2mo	$120,000	$87	53
2915 Porter Rd	0.63mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,484 (-6%)	1mo	$171,720	$116	53
2526 Walnut Ave	0.61mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,664 (+5%)	3mo	$112,000	$67	52
2902 Linwood Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,376 (-13%)	4mo	$180,000	$131	47
1013 13th St	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,352 (-15%)	3mo	$97,000	$72	44
1146 Haeberle Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,408 (-11%)	4mo	$115,000	$82	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 73.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.50×
• Total profit: $69,344
• Equity at exit: $40,539

10-year hold

• IRR: 69.8%
• Equity multiple: 16.22×
• Total profit: $191,806
• Equity at exit: $87,423

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14301

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,309 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,231/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $594

Break-even live

Break-even rent $558

Max offer price $44,999

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1808 Whitney Ave Unit 3 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$900	$0.75	44d	1	0.12mi
2020 Forest Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	17d	1	0.19mi
1001 17th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,800	$1.56	24d	1	0.28mi
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	3d	1	0.43mi
1312 Ontario Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1956	$1,200	$0.61	44d	1	0.70mi
1427 Fort Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1058	$950	$0.90	44d	1	0.84mi
420 25th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1101	$1,500	$1.36	44d	1	0.87mi
1780 Falls St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	44d	1	0.95mi
724 Augustus Pl Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	44d	1	0.95mi
642 Ashland Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,100	$0.89	3d	1	1.01mi
2420 Mackenna Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,390	$1.07	2d	1	1.12mi
3025 Macklem Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.5	1750	$2,200	$1.26	44d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,999 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,999 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,999 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,999 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $44,999 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $44,999 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,999 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,999 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,999 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,999 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,999 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,999 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,999 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,999 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-04-17
    listed $49,999 Active 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    Welcome to 1879 Pierce Avenue in Niagara Falls. This property offers a strong foundation for the right buyer, highlighted by one of the most critical upgrades already completed, a durable, long lasting metal roof that protects the home and your future investment. Bring your vision and restore this property to its full potential. The home requires a complete renovation, including kitchens, bathrooms, plumbing, electrical, and heating systems, making it an ideal opportunity for investors or experienced renovators. Due to the scope of work needed, this is a cash only sale. The seller is motivated and open to offers. Seize the opportunity to transform this property and unlock its value.

16. 2021-11-18
    historical
17. 2021-10-08
    status Active
18. 2021-10-02
    price $49,900
19. 2021-10-02
    historical
20. 2021-08-18
    listed $44,900 Active
21. 2019-03-22
    historical
22. 2018-12-11
    listed $40,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,231 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,231 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,712
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$2,231
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,257
• − Management: −$1,257
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $6,913
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,659
• After-tax cash flow: $5,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,923
• Household income: $34,549
• Rent vs Own: 54.1% rent · 45.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 25% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.41%
• Current HPI: 266.1457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.79%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+25.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $49,999 WNYREIS
• 2021-11-18 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2021-10-08 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2021-10-02 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2021-10-02 Price Changed $49,900 WNYREIS
• 2021-08-18 Listed $44,900 WNYREIS
• 2019-03-22 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2018-12-11 Listed $40,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,231 · +17.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.