2412 Island Oaks W · Combee Settlement, FL 33805

$149,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1986 10,454 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Roomy family home in Timbercreek subdivision, fresh paint inside, new tub. nice patio, living and family room. Country living with city conveniences. Roof and carpet 1-2 years old. 1 yr. warranty.

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• Spacious lot
• 0.24 acre lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• VINYL FLOORING
• UPDATED KITCHEN CABINETS
• INTERIOR LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as residential manufactured home; Lot approximately 0.24 acres (80 x 131); Living area about 1056 square feet; Unfurnished; No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: No association/HOA indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Paved road access
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; East-facing entry
• Construction: Other construction materials; Other roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Storage shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen/family room combo; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $298 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Philip O'Brien Elementary School (math 31% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 627 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 162 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $149k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,590 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.47%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-8,758
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,777
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33805

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,625 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $916/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,248

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $382	-5% $340	+0% $298	+5% $255	+10% $213
Rent	-10% $169	-5% $233	+0% $298	+5% $362	+10% $426
Rate	-1.0pp $373	-0.5pp $336	base $298	+0.5pp $259	+1.0pp $220

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1452 Ridge Lake Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	960	$1,700	$1.77	22d	1	1.00mi
2721 Doyle Cir Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,795	$1.39	24d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,000 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,000 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-03-11
    listed $149,000 Active
16. 2007-03-29
    soldstatus $69,000
17. 2007-03-23
    soldstatus $69,000 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    Roomy family home in Timbercreek subdivision, fresh paint inside, new tub. nice patio, living and family room. Country living with city conveniences. Roof and carpet 1-2 years old. 1 yr. warranty.

18. 2007-02-02
    listed $69,000 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    Roomy family home in Timbercreek subdivision, fresh paint inside, new tub. nice patio, living and family room. Country living with city conveniences. Roof and carpet 1-2 years old. 1 yr. warranty.

19. 2007-01-18
    soldstatus $35,000
20. 2007-01-10
    soldstatus $35,000 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    REDUCED TO $52,000!!!Large double-wide manufactured home in Timbercreek subdivision. Carpet only one year old, eat-in kitchen and split bedroom plan. New shingle roof, covered patio/porch and partially fenced. All sizes are approx.

21. 2006-03-09
    listed $55,000 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    REDUCED TO $52,000!!!Large double-wide manufactured home in Timbercreek subdivision. Carpet only one year old, eat-in kitchen and split bedroom plan. New shingle roof, covered patio/porch and partially fenced. All sizes are approx.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $916 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,237 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$321/yr (+$27/mo · 35.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,502
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$916
• − Insurance: −$1,542
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,560
• − Management: −$1,560
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $1,242
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$298
• After-tax cash flow: $3,273/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Combee Settlement

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #8672

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,751
• Household income: $62,661
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1179.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.44%
• Current HPI: 372.7317
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.77%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+170.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Listed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 2007-03-23 Sold (MLS) $69,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-02-02 Listed $69,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-18 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2007-01-10 Sold (MLS) $35,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-09 Listed $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $916 · +17.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.