4315 N 19th St · St. Louis, MO 63107

$120,000

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,916 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 135 Days on market

Built 1895 3,510 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

This all-brick two-family offers a solid opportunity to expand your rental portfolio. Both units are currently occupied. Each unit features spacious layouts with classic city charm, and the property sits in a convenient location with easy access to highways, public transit, and downtown. Can be sold as a package with 4306 Strodtman, 4309 Blair, 4337 Strodtman, 1923 Newhouse, 4410 N 19th, and 4512 N 19th. 3 bed/1.5 bath units. Rents are $1,100 and $1,000. No seller financing.

Key facts

• Public transit
• Classic city charm
• Convenient location

Tags

• TWO-FAMILY
• CLASSIC CITY CHARM
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAYS
• PUBLIC TRANSIT
• DOWNTOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3.0-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive. Per door: $516/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bryan Hill Elem. (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #1,072 of 1,115 statewide, top 98%, 182 students, 98% FRL); Vashon High (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #520 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 568 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 80% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1895 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1895 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.85%
• DSCR: 2.64
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $52,624
• Equity at exit: $24,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.05×
• Total profit: $136,049
• Equity at exit: $22,444

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63107

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $323/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $1,032

Break-even live

Break-even rent $894

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 48%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3.0	1.5	$2,200
Total (2 units)			$2,200

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-02
   status Active
3. 2025-11-06
   status Pending
4. 2025-10-13
   price $120,000
5. 2025-09-29
   listed $140,000 Active
6. 2009-04-16
   soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $323 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,164 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$841/yr (+$70/mo · 260.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$323
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $11,041
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,650
• After-tax cash flow: $9,732/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• City population: 283,259
• Population (ZIP): 9,082

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 89% White 8% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.75%
• Current HPI: 92.7423
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+20.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-06 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $120,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-29 Listed $140,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $323 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.