233 E Ash St · Miami, AZ 85545

$179,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 337 Days on market

Built 1965 0.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lake Roosevelt Az Store your Boat here! Great Location! Great Views Close to Tonto National Forest Trails 1965 2 bedroom 1 bath split floor plan Appliances included private well fenced lot with shop storage and steel carports/ Front covered porch Weekend getaway and Ideal to upgrade to a newer unit when you retire and go fishing! Call for info.

Key facts

• Shop
• Front covered porch
• Storage

Tags

• PRIVATE WELL
• FENCED LOT
• SHOP
• STORAGE
• STEEL CARPORTS
• FRONT COVERED PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $232 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#289 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Miami Unified District (4211) (rural): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #221 of 249 in AZ (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 337 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $180k implies a 102% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $158,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 337 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.52%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $37,933
• Equity at exit: $82,571

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.23×
• Total profit: $112,319
• Equity at exit: $128,573

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85545

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $640/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,357

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $334	-5% $283	+0% $232	+5% $181	+10% $130
Rent	-10% $101	-5% $167	+0% $232	+5% $297	+10% $362
Rate	-1.0pp $322	-0.5pp $278	base $232	+0.5pp $185	+1.0pp $138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
188 S Adonis Ave Miami, AZ	1.0	1.0	645	$1,650	$2.56	25d	1	0.58mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $179,900 Active 337 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 336 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 335 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 334 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 333 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,900 Active 331 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $179,900 Active 330 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 327 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 326 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 325 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 324 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,900 Active 321 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 320 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 319 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 318 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 317 DOM
17. 2026-04-24
    status Active 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Lake Roosevelt Az Store your Boat here! Great Location! Great Views Close to Tonto National Forest Trails 1965 2 bedroom 1 bath split floor plan Appliances included private well fenced lot with shop storage and steel carports/ Front covered porch Weekend getaway and Ideal to upgrade to a newer unit when you retire and go fishing! Call for info.

18. 2026-04-01
    historical 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Lake Roosevelt Az Store your Boat here! Great Location! Great Views Close to Tonto National Forest Trails 1965 2 bedroom 1 bath split floor plan Appliances included private well fenced lot with shop storage and steel carports/ Front covered porch Weekend getaway and Ideal to upgrade to a newer unit when you retire and go fishing! Call for info.

19. 2025-06-25
    listed $179,900 Active 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Lake Roosevelt Az Store your Boat here! Great Location! Great Views Close to Tonto National Forest Trails 1965 2 bedroom 1 bath split floor plan Appliances included private well fenced lot with shop storage and steel carports/ Front covered porch Weekend getaway and Ideal to upgrade to a newer unit when you retire and go fishing! Call for info.

20. 2024-10-01
    historical
21. 2023-11-01
    price $191,000
22. 2023-09-27
    listed $196,000 Active
23. 2019-03-22
    soldstatus $89,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $640 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,187 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$547/yr (+$46/mo · 85.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$640
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,584
• − Management: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$218
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$52
• After-tax cash flow: $2,834/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami Unified District (4211)
• NCES district ID: 0405030
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $33,063
• Composite: 10.86/100
• National rank: #9760
• State rank: #221 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Miami

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #24461

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Miami, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 669

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 16% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Scottish 5% Iranian 4% Italian 3%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Current HPI: 105.2235
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+102.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Relisted — CAAR
• 2026-04-01 Delisted — CAAR
• 2025-06-25 Listed $179,900 CAAR
• 2024-10-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-11-01 Price Changed $191,000 ARMLS
• 2023-09-27 Listed $196,000 ARMLS
• 2019-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $640 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.