16754 Smith Ridge Rd · Garfield, AR 72732

$400,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,949 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1980

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful country setting with mature trees and a place to grow your own garden. Sit on your covered porch and count the deer overlooking the peaceful Ozark views. Home sets on one acre near lake. Only 15 minutes to Rogers. Home offers 2900 Sq Ft, 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths and 3 living area. Formal dining/ office area. Gas cooktop and lots of built in cabinetry. New laminate flooring in master bath, breakfast room and laundry. 2 Car detached workshop/ garage area. Also has a 3 car carport. New roof in 2018 and newer HVAC. Fenced in backyard for the kids and dog to play.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Country setting
• Peaceful ozark views

Tags

• COUNTRY SETTING
• MATURE TREES
• COVERED PORCH
• PEACEFUL OZARK VIEWS
• ONE ACRE
• NEAR LAKE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-363 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $336k (16.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (33.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (33.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#123 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Rogers School District (urban): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #31 of 238 in AR (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $226k; list at $400k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $264,886 (33.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.89%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $131,546
• Equity at exit: $293,271

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.56×
• Total profit: $398,407
• Equity at exit: $572,294

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72732

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,649 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$191 /mo · $2,292/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $-363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,108

Max offer price $335,932

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-136	-5% $-249	+0% $-363	+5% $-476	+10% $-589
Rent	-10% $-572	-5% $-467	+0% $-363	+5% $-258	+10% $-153
Rate	-1.0pp $-161	-0.5pp $-261	base $-363	+0.5pp $-466	+1.0pp $-572

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $400,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $400,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $400,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $400,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $400,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $400,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 573-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $400,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,292 · $191/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,560 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$268/yr (+$22/mo · 11.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,786
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$2,292
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,543
• − Management: −$2,543
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$11,634
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,792
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,560/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rogers School District
• NCES district ID: 0511970
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 38.81/100
• National rank: #4113
• State rank: #31 of 238 in AR

Livability — Garfield

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #11634

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,493

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 318,683 people
• By 2030: 353,481 · +10.9%
• By 2040: 425,280 · +33.4%
• By 2050: 497,239 · +56.0%
• By 2075: 662,114 · +107.8%
• By 2100: 776,431 · +143.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Two or more races 27% Hispanic / Latino 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Danish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.2% · R 62.1% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -36.5pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+34.9 2012: R+40.4 2008: R+36.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.61%
• Current HPI: 368.3932
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+169.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $400,000 FSBO.com
• 2021-03-11 Sold (MLS) $226,122 NWARMLS
• 2020-08-25 Listed $229,000 NWARMLS
• 2020-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $148,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,292 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.