630 20th St · Niagara Falls, NY 14301

$74,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,292 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1920 3,125 sqft lot Est $93k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully updated property in the heart of Niagara Falls! Featuring 1.5 baths and numerous recent updates throughout, this move-in ready home offers new flooring, new carpets, fresh paint, and stylish new fixtures. The kitchen has been refreshed with new lower cabinets and countertops, while major mechanical updates include a new furnace, new electric service, and new hot water tank for added peace of mind. Some newer windows and some new vinyl siding help enhance both efficiency and curb appeal. Enjoy relaxing mornings on the welcoming front porch or entertain guests on the concrete back porch overlooking the backyard. A great opportunity to own an updated home at an

Key facts

• Updated property
• New lower cabinets
• Fresh paint

Tags

• UPDATED PROPERTY
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW CARPETS
• FRESH PAINT
• NEW LOWER CABINETS
• NEW COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: 2-story property; Resale condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Block foundation; Existing (built previously)
• Exterior features: Dirt driveway; See remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 9; Basement present (full)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Other interior features (see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $550 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,351/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($518 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $73,776 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.47%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $93,024
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
628 20th St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,328 (+3%)	1mo	$115,000	$87	90
1148 Haeberle Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,302 (+1%)	4mo	$85,000	$65	73
724 17th St	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,179 (-9%)	4mo	$70,000	$59	70
451 20th St	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,440 (+12%)	2mo	$85,000	$59	66
1013 13th St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,352 (+5%)	3mo	$97,000	$72	65
442 26th St	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (-3%)	2mo	$130,000	$104	64
605 29th St	0.57mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,320 (+2%)	3mo	$130,000	$98	62
2487 Grand Ave	0.41mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,188 (-8%)	1mo	$169,900	$143	59
1146 Haeberle Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,408 (+9%)	4mo	$115,000	$82	59
1812 Pierce Ave	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,152 (-11%)	0mo	$65,000	$56	58
1512 Willow Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,148 (-11%)	0mo	$39,300	$34	51
1327 Willow Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,444 (+12%)	1mo	$40,000	$28	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.96×
• Total profit: $82,978
• Equity at exit: $67,476

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.2%
• Equity multiple: 12.18×
• Total profit: $234,547
• Equity at exit: $145,514

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14301

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,351 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,124/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $550

Break-even live

Break-even rent $655

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
769 19th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.5	960	$1,400	$1.46	21d	1	0.22mi
2020 Forest Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	17d	1	0.29mi
1001 17th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,800	$1.56	23d	1	0.35mi
754 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	990	$1,100	$1.11	23d	1	0.36mi
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	3d	1	0.40mi
1427 Fort Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1058	$950	$0.90	43d	1	0.41mi
420 25th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1101	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	0.46mi
1780 Falls St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	43d	1	0.47mi
1808 Whitney Ave Unit 3 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$900	$0.75	43d	1	0.48mi
2727 Monroe Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	10d	1	0.60mi
2473 Pierce Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	3d	1	0.63mi
2420 Mackenna Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,390	$1.07	1d	1	0.67mi
724 Augustus Pl Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	43d	1	0.78mi
3036 Welch Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	1d	1	0.83mi
2463 South Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,100	$1.09	17d	1	0.89mi
1817 Ontario Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	985	$1,899	$1.93	1d	1	1.00mi
1817 Ontario Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	999	$1,899	$1.90	1d	1	1.00mi
642 Ashland Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,100	$0.89	3d	1	1.03mi
3340 Simmons Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,550	$1.54	14d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $74,900 Pending 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $74,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $74,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $74,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $74,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $74,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $74,900 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-05-26
    listed $74,900 Active
11. 2025-10-06
    status Pending
12. 2025-10-05
    historical
13. 2025-09-25
    price $55,000
14. 2025-08-24
    listed $70,000 Active
15. 2024-08-31
    historical
16. 2024-05-24
    listed $69,000 Active
17. 2022-07-15
    soldstatus $58,000
18. 2017-11-10
    soldstatus $18,500 Closed Sale or Rented
19. 2017-08-25
    status Pending Sale
20. 2017-08-25
    listed $18,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,216
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,124
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,297
• − Management: −$1,297
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $5,749
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,380
• After-tax cash flow: $5,219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,923
• Household income: $34,549
• Rent vs Own: 54.1% rent · 45.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 25% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.41%
• Current HPI: 266.1457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.79%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+304.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $74,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-06 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-10-05 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $55,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-08-24 Listed $70,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-08-31 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2024-05-24 Listed $69,000 WNYREIS
• 2022-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2017-11-10 Sold (MLS) $18,500 WNYREIS
• 2017-08-25 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2017-08-25 Listed $18,500 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,969 · +30.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.