6 Holiday Dr · Meadow Lake, NM 87031

$105,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Other · 17 Days on market

Built 2018 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Built 2018
• Listed 17 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.5 acre; Zoning: RR-1

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Water connected (community/coop); Sewer connected (septic tank)
• Home design: Single-story; Faces north; Resale property; Single wide mobile home (Bella model) by Clayton
• Construction: Frame and Masonite construction; Pitched shingle roof; Built by Clayton
• Exterior features: Private yard

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Forced air; Natural gas heating; Ductless cooling
• Interior features: Sliding windows; Main level primary bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $966 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#306 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Los Lunas Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #34 of 95 in NM (top 36%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.2%/yr); 562 active listings in the ZIP; 303 units permitted in Valencia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Valencia County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,425 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.44%
• DSCR: 2.76
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $55,351
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.01×
• Total profit: $176,690
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87031

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: 33.2%
• Active inventory: 562
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,049 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $699/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $966

Break-even live

Break-even rent $826

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,026	-5% $996	+0% $966	+5% $937	+10% $907
Rent	-10% $804	-5% $885	+0% $966	+5% $1,047	+10% $1,128
Rate	-1.0pp $1,019	-0.5pp $993	base $966	+0.5pp $939	+1.0pp $911

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $105,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $105,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $105,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $105,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $699 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $840 · $70/mo
• Expected delta: +$141/yr (+$12/mo · 20.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,593
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$699
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,967
• − Management: −$1,967
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $10,498
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,519
• After-tax cash flow: $9,077/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Lunas Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501680
• Math proficiency: 20% —
• Reading proficiency: 34% —
• Median HH income: $44,438
• Composite: 26.11/100
• National rank: #12724
• State rank: #34 of 95 in NM

Livability — Meadow Lake

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #306
• US rank: #26141

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Meadow Lake, NM
• County: Valencia County · 68,779 people
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• Population (ZIP): 47,514
• Household income: $60,902
• Rent vs Own: 16.8% rent · 83.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Valencia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,788 people
• By 2030: 72,101 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 67,930 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 63,191 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 53,644 · -27.3%
• By 2100: 40,882 · -44.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 30% Two or more races 29% Native American 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Russian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Valencia

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 40.9% · R 57.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: 7.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+9.6 2016: R+8.7 2012: D+2.5 2008: D+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.17%
• Current HPI: 201.0508
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.16%
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $105,000 Southwest MLS
• 2018-04-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-04-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-01-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-09-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-04-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $699 · +27.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.